I am not interested in the least about what the EU officials say they are going to do. I don’t care about any of the proposed bailouts. I’m sick of seeing Angela Merkel on television, and listening to her coarse voice spelling promises.
I’ve stopped hearing you talking about the Fed. I’m not paying attention to the fluttering, faltering stories of quantitative easing. I definitely don’t want to listen to another high minded speech about building confidence from a central banker.
You want to get me bullish?
All you need to do is give me an announcement. One, simple announcement.
That announcement doesn’t need to have any comments in it; it can be devoid of opinions or perceptions; I don’t want to hear an assessment of current events or things that have led up to this point; I don’t even care to hear about what we’re going to do going forward.
In fact, as far as I’m concerned, the less that is said the better.
The only thing I want this announcement to say is “Fed, ECB, working in tandem, purchase $(insert number)00 billion in (insert financial product here).”
You give me that, and I’ll be the biggest bullshitter you’ve ever laid eyes upon. I’ll jump up on my desk and start grabbing books off the shelves, then shred their pages and scribble the word “BULLISH” across their pieces. I’ll run to my balcony and fling the pieces into the eight winds of heaven so that every piece of shit within fifty miles of me knows, “buy.”
You give me that and I’ll buy back all my UCO…and I’ll keep on buying. I’ll go long oil on its path to $200. I’ll sell all my ERY and keep rolling into ERX. I’d even consider selling my EUO position, just because the exchange rate between the dollar and euro would be supported.
You give me that announcement, and I’m 120% long inside of two weeks, snorting up commodities like a crack whore does blow.
But shy of that, I just don’t fucking care. Because I’ve seen this donkey show more than enough times to be numb to it.
I watched last night as no less than five rumors racked across the planet in less than two hours. Two rumors of the IMF bailing out the EU (first Italy, then more generally everybody), one rumor of the Fed purchasing more MBS paper, some garbage about how a new treaty adoption could be implemented “quickly” to increase sentiment, and one piece of shit rumor about some “Elite” bonds (don’t bother asking, it was dispelled as soon as it was uttered) that would save the day.
This is all the same repackaged fish. And it smells aweful.
I’m sick of listening; I want to see. I want to see action, not hear about it. From the first, the Europeans have treated this crisis as a crisis of confidence; of sentiment. If only people felt better, then everything would be just fine. But this isn’t a crisis of confidence; a lack of confidence was just the spark, but the kerosene-soaked straw that filled the barn was and is the problem. You can’t wish fire away, assholes.
Until I see the EU successfully start to roll over their short term maturity debt, you can fuck off.
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Thank you.
Cain
If the ECB doesn’t print it will be the first time in history a central bank running fiat has not intervened.
It doesn’t fucking matter what the Germans say. They can leave if they choose and then the same thing will happen to them as what happened to Switzerland with their currency.
It will soon dawn that it doesn’t matter what the fuck the Germans say or think. The worst that can happen is that they leave and if they do leave they’re fucked.
J,
ECB can not act unilaterally, it does not have the mandate. If it could dont you think they would have flipped the bird to the Germans a long time ago?
It’s not the printing I’m worried about, J. Although the EU is so far refusing to print (which is probably worse).
If the ECB is going to help the EU roll their debt over, they’re going to need to more than double the monetary supply inside of two years. That’s fucking huge.
And it’s made worse by the fact that the EU needs longer maturity terms. So the ECB is going to double the number of euros outstanding with no means of reigning them in for 30 years?
I don’t think the U.S. can dodge that bullet. The only way we can minimize the fallout is if we print in tandem, and then things are going to get real ugly real fast, because the U.S. is at that point where printing is not a free endeavor.
I don’t care about Europe. I care about what Europe’s actions are going to do to us.
Cain, it’s clear most of these fuckers can’t pay their debts. So an orderly restructuring of the debt along with debt forgiveness is the key. However that can only be done over a protracted number of years which suggests an orderly market.
The ECB is basically collapsed NGDP. Those fucking Germanic morons are talking about fighting inflation and actually raised rates back in April. They are part of the problem.
Yeah, alright. I’m not fighting that; but I’m not going to gamble on them restructuring when they are obviously not restructuring.
And if they do leave they will suffer huge losses and massive deflation which means they didn’t need to leave in the first place.
Fuck them and the war they started 70 years ago.
70 years isn’t a long time in the big scope of things. In the eyes of history, Germany is still filled with scumbags.
lol
Yeah, fuck those Nazis.
Oil can’t fall much – Barclays
http://pragcap.com/barclays-on-oil-prices-there-is-no-way-prices-can-fall-much
Hilarious, but crack whores smoke rock.
wonderful thought,so true. merkel deserves an academy for the best bullshit princess award.now,where is the other cunt,you know.the imf head,or is she giving head?
The Fed should not work “in tandem” with the ECB. I hope we retain our autonomy. Fuck those fuckers over there. They can straighten out their own shit.
You say that now, but if the ECB prints the amount of money they need, big U.S. multinational conglomerates are going to get “the blitzkrieg”.
good,fuck them to for shipping jobs overseas.
These aren’t necessarily shipping jobs over seas, drummer. Anyone who trades in foreign markets gets hit.
Cain,
whats your view on ECB and supporting bonds via secondary market.
If they don’t, the EU is done within a year and the U.S. gets dragged into the fray. If they do, the EU still gets hit with a recession and the U.S. gets dragged into the fray anyway.
Only coordinated action with the Fed and the ECB gives us a higher market.
thats exactly what I am thinking.
so youre call in the meantime is that there is more pain to be had before we move higher?
getting back to your QE thesis and commod prices.
what are the chances of FED intervention with crude at 100, or do the HAVE to wait for lower commoods? .. jus thining out loude here
It’s looking like the market is going to move higher regardless of the pain. I can’t control that; only myself.
I DO NOT believe the Fed will intervene with crude oil this expensive, and other commodities this high. Moving back in 2009 was a free endeavor because commodities were spiraling to $0.00. You can’t assume the Fed will act in this environment the same way it acted in a totally different one. Bernanke isn’t an idiot.
But if the Fed does move, I’m calling it quits and dedicating myself to the long side of the market. I don’t know how long it will last, with crude oil going for $170, but I’m not going to stand in the way and get crushed either.
so your advocating that the us taxpayer bailout the ez ?
No. I’m advocating responding to the situation as it develops. And that probably means the Fed devalues the dollar because if things go down the way people are assuming in Europe, then U.S. competition abroad goes away and our own economy gets lit on fire, higher unemployment and all.
im building an ark, just incase. does anyone know what a cubit is? (long gld)
Cain. Have you ever been/seen a “donkey show”? Damnest thing I have ever seen. Was present at one in Mexico many years ago.