Really? REALLY?!
How many times are you assholes going to buy the same fucking news? Oil prices ripped off the lows on news of a Greek bailout. Then the Greek bailout was suspect, so people bought oil on the hopes of a Greek bailout. Now we have news of another bailout so people are supposedly buying oil on that.
In the U.S., we had a massive build of oil reserves, and have actually started exporting oil. So I get to hear dick journalists talking about the “sense” of higher oil prices because our excess is flooding overseas; you know, constricted local supply, I guess…
Yeah, just keep bidding it up, that makes a lot of fucking sense. I get what’s really going on here. This is a game, where no matter what happens, you contort the shit out of your body and spit out some dumb remark to justify higher oil. It’s not hard to see what you’re doing.
Fuck you.
Today U.S. Treasuries were bid up an enormous sum. Why? What scared bond investors so much that they pushed the yield on the ten year note all the way from 2.05% to 1.96%? You don’t even care, do you? Because you’re probably one of the thousands of traders who casually ignored such a warning sign to circle jerk this market higher. Like a fucking light switch…
The Italian 10 year bond yield is right now closer to 7% than 6%. What do you think the EU is going to do, when the ability to finance their member’s debt through private offerings is totally impaired? They barely have a snowball’s chance in hell as it is to raise all the money, and now the largest source of liquidity in the world – private funds – are abandoning Europe like it’s 1999. I mean, I expected Italian debt could spike without invoking too much concern (EFSF miracles, and all that) but a one day 5% rise? Will the market care when it’s 7%? What about 8%?
You can bet Germany is going to care. So why the fuck don’t you?
I don’t know when; I don’t know how. But I do know that I’m in the right. You do not have a recession in Europe and not have cheaper crude oil. You do not have a stronger dollar and not have cheaper crude oil.
It. Does. Not. Happen.
And when that day comes, where you finally get what’s coming to you, I will take the time out of my busy schedule to piss on your grave.
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Ha, I feel your pain, being short in this market has been difficult and feels like a death wish right now as the fundamentals aren’t paid attention to whatsoever…
Cain, I had a dream this weekend that the Dow would rise 40 – 50 points everyday till Ground Hog’s Day.
This is going to be fun!
When don’t you think the market is going up?
Saturday/Sunday and a few select holidays.
LMMFAO
I feel like you’re not even in it for the money anymore. You just want to watch the world burn, out of spite.
I, for one, admire that.
No, I am most definitely in it for money.
I feel your pain and frustration. The economy is bad and so the logical thing to do is inflate oil so all those manufactures do really wel… oh wait.. crap.
Perhaps people are buying oil and hoarding it because at least it is something real that you will always be able to trade for something? Or perhaps we are simply seeing a run up as we did before the 2008 crash?
I was looking into why commodity prices were rising beyond the default “inflation trade” hypothesis and came across this – http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/29/us-lme-warehousing-idUSTRE76R3YZ20110729
Perhaps someone is doing something similar with oil (beyond OPEC I mean).
It. Certainly. Can. Happen.
Under what scenario? Howz ’bout that “Peak Oil” theory having some marginal credence to it? I’m not on that wagon, just keeping a eye on it. Maybe the oil price IS telling us something, and it’s oil going higher and equities ready to tumble? Your question, fundamentally is correct, “why is oil trading at these levels considering the relationships to other instruments”.
Peak oil does not trump a 4 million barrel inventory build.
Also, it’s difficult for me to imagine Peak Oil causing a price spike as European manufactoring crumbles before our very eyes.
It’s the perfect correlation nightmare of the markets. Oil goes up on Iran/Israel news. If oil goes up then everything else “should” be up to regardles of the implications.
That sounds more reasonable.
But Israel/Iran is a bluff.
Oil goes up on Iran/Israel news.
This.
I’m surprised it took 11 comments before someone mentioned the obvious.
Blame it on getting an extra hour of sleep. Standard time is messing with Mr. Market’s head.
Fears of Iran action?
Could be.
I really can’t take Iran that seriously; maybe it was the IRGC developing that tin boat with wings and strapping a .50 caliber to the back of it, then calling it a weapons development success, but even if Iran gets a nuke, they just seem so incompetent.
There’s a pretty picture. Achmed the dead terrorist with a nuke.
I really hope this doesn’t happen; oil would go to $150. And under such a situation, I would be obligated to liquidate long and further increase my UCO short, as it tore off my face.
Just bad news for everyone really.
I think morons are still betting the Chinese middle class is going to bail everyone out. Fuck China. They are fucking dead.
I like to call it reverse value investing. How long is the market going to snort rat poison and party like nothing is wrong? Who the fuck knows. When people finally sober up and realize that everything is fucked we might see some realistic market moves lower. Till then you got stupid fucks buying Apple for a “long term hold”(Literally had someone tell me he was buying Apple for a 5-10 year hold. Did someone forget to tell this stupid fuck Steve jobs is dead? or that Andriod is raping market share from Apple like they were taking advantage of steve job’s dead body.)
Meanwhile Im trying to make the fucking hardest trade of my life buying gold. I have a fucking block I cant do it.
Pardon me if those Steve job’s comments are still to soon, but I’m about as fucking mad as a black man in a nice neighborhood.
IM JUST WANNA FUCKING HURT SOMEONE.
Mind you I did not lose money today. I was stomped out of a epic trade and that’s worse then losing money.(okay maybe not worse)
@huh, you arent the first,and you most certainly wont be the last.
Man, lots of mean angry fucking shit happening here.
First time reader here, but I’ll be back.
Fuck oil. Fuck Iran. Fuck China.
lol
You Betcha’!
Indeud.
The FM guys are saying Brent is going up because Libya is coming back on line. I guess I fell down the rabbit hole.
No kidding, let’s get some mercury laden hats and have ourselves some tea served out of leather boots.
Cain, for some time now, I’ve simply ignored my CCJ position because it’s so hapless. At some point I lost the will to manage it. However, now I’m realizing I might as well get active with that instead of having an ignored black hole in the portfolio. I agree with your longterm thesis, so that is why I simply let it sit there for a while.
I was wondering, at what price would you look to average down/ add to your CCJ position? At the current levels? Or should we expect more earnings punishment the next few days?
I’ve been averaging down every 10-20% so maybe $17
And this is why I have been a daytrader for the last 6- 8 years.
I was a real investor for years before then.
Now I don’t care where the market goes as long as it goes when I day trade.
I trade only what I see and I have no opinion on what will happen tomorrow, next week, or next year. And if I did it would be a guess, an educated one , but still a guess.
Amen.
great post and thread. lol
Here is an often overlooked underlying driver..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/8874073/Russia-warns-against-Israeli-air-strike-on-Iran.html