Somebody just rammed a metal rod in this market’s spokes…
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So I’m back from Vegas and am more confused than ever.
The good: 280,000 people there over the holiday weekend, making it virtually impossible to get a chair at the pool or to walk down the strip. Everywhere you turned there were mobs…tables were packed – I cannot believe that there were full tables of people betting $25 on a continuous shuffling machine…really?! Hotel room rates for the weekend were through the roof, based on a sampling of locations. Obviously with the holiday you will see higher prices, but still, everybody was sold out and people were willing to pay. Word from the cabbies is that business is booming…first time they didn’t bitch all year. Finally, a handful of hosts all said things felt stronger and they all had players coming in for the weekend (no surprise). I would call these hosts “mid-level” so no whales, but the types of players that will leave some meaningful coin behind.
The bad: The restaurants were never full and in fact, seemed rather quiet. People at the pool appeared to bring their own beer and not as many people seemed to be ordering the $18 frozen pina colada. Conventions seemed quiet, but I will grant the holiday week as probably a horrible time to have one. The high limit tables at Mirage, Bellagio, Aria, Palazzo, Venitian, and Caesars collectively seemed slow on all days and at all times. Table limits were not as high (or as many higher ones) and I only say one person betting more than $10k per hand at any given time…in fact, I barely saw anybody betting more than $500 unless they were pressing. The shows were relatively empty, but in fairness one show I saw was the Elvis Cirque, which nobody ever goes to see.
So all-in I am actually split in my opinion. I am bearish on the market so if I was leaning of course that’s where my bias would go. Still, for all of the empty restaurants and all of the empty shows, people clearly have the money to travel and were obviously eating and doing something while they were in town. You can only go visit famous pawn shops for so long before you sit at a table. I also believe the China is slowing down, which could mean Macau takes a breather as well. That is obviously going to impact LVS and WYNN more, but should LV teeter as well, I think you could see 33% to the downside on both names. MGM is in its own world, as the stock has sucked for a while and doesn’t appear to be going anywhere just yet…I’d look for $10…but again, I think the market is going down, which means if that happens and everything slows, LV-related names go down with it, with MGM leading the pack.
Thanks for the on-the-ground info, RosenRush.
Hope you enjoyed yourself while you were there.
I had a very pleasant time…had to keep explaining to people why going to MGM in Detroit just wasn’t the same experience.
Never mind, the sell off was met with force. I continue to wait…
I think we get some massive surprise event that shocks the market lower…but I have no idea what and I have no idea when. There doesn’t appear to be anything coming that can really bring this down for more than a couple of hours before it starts sprinting again.
yeah, I would be very careful going short just yet. btw go CCJ!