Look, forgive my obstinacy, but despite having devolved to a cash position yesterday by way of selling out of MGM, NRP, and TLP, I did so purely because of appreciation on what a Japan meltdown could do to other traders and investors. I am obligated to hold some cash, with the possibility of unattended bond auctions creating ramping yield environments, so that I might buy said auctions. I am obligated to sell a company like MGM when questions about global trade are put on the plate. And, yes, I am obligated to take profits from a very successful two years of strategy, when it looks like the dollar is suddenly, miraculously undervalued (by no means of its own, of course).
However, despite taking a few steps back, I still like all the positions in my portfolio. Even the ones I sold. Cash, at this point, is an insurance policy, not a policy unto itself. I might refrain from repurchasing TLP or NRP, but MGM is still in the deck, provided this blows over.
On to a more pressing issue, let me remind you in the audience that you are not nuclear physicists. I’m hearing some pretty outlandish claims here, which I can easily spot as being false. For instance: Chernobyl.
Chernobyl is perhaps the most over hyped event to have occurred in human history. When it transpired, no prediction of human casualties was high enough to accurately assess the situation. Whether it was hundreds of thousands or hundreds of millions, the number of deaths resulting from the incident was to be unparalleled.
As of 2005, a staggering 56 people had died as a consequence of Chernobyl, and meanwhile, cases of cancer attributed to the accident (from which there is a 99 percent survival chance) are both:
• Below original estimates, and;
• Unreliable, since before the accident, records of cancer in populations are sketchily kept, at best.
There was a fairly excellent collection of essays by Dr. Michael Crichton on the issue, as I recall, but upon checking his legacy site, I find that they have been removed in ominous fashion. So instead, I’ll just link to this article from the Times in 2005.
You see, I know most of you are full of shit. You cannot tell me the difference between an alpha emitter, a beta emitter, or a gamma emitter. You have no idea what a nuclear plant uses, and hence no idea what is being thrown into the air. And depending on what that material is, the consequences of coming into contact with it vary. In some cases, you could swallow the fucking stuff, and it would cause you less harm than if it were a short distance away from you.
If that last statement makes no sense to you…that’s exactly my point. Calm the fuck down. You people talk about nuclear energy like a 14th century clergyman talks about witchcraft.
Nuclear energy will still have a place in the future, and if the Greenpeace lot skip around much harder, I’ll be putting cash next to mouth, in force.
And good day to you, sirs.
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Some perspective:
http://tech.mit.edu/V131/N13/yost.html
Indeed.
I haven’t seen a physicist or engineer yet who’s panicked because of this. Yet, people in California are buying up bullshit inhibitors like this was happening in their back yard.
Since when do student newspaper columnists, even if they do come from a fine institution as MIT, qualify as experts to provide perspective on an nuclear engineering disaster? Just my 2 cents. And yes, I am a strong proponent of nuclear power — just not operated in this fashion.
Do the folks at Jellystone park not recognize an “opinion” piece? I think it’s right there in bold face. I think I mentioned it’s a “perspective”.
BTW – I notice that CNN and BBC didn’t even lead with the Fukushima story in tonight’s news = CNN leads with a piece on Israel and BBC with a piece on Germany — a drop dead sure sign that things are ‘calming down” — no news here, let’s move along…………….
I nibbled on CCJ, a company that mines uranium cake. This panic is too reminiscient of the Macondo well accident not to act.
Look, people suck at predicting things, alright. You guys are easily overestimating the long term impact on nuclear power.
You might be a bit early on CCJ, given that CNN; BBC; Der Spiegel; MSNBC …. like spreading BS and instilling panic. Hell the Krautnics just announced they are shutting down 7 of their older reactors. The short term play might be NG, I think the uranium names might have more downward pressure to bear. I too will be a buyer at some point = DML and U along with CCJ are under consideration.
I probably am early; however, that is what cash is for. I bought a starter, but I can buy again lower.
Good Sir,
I was the one who made the Chernobyl comment in The Fly’s “Bearish” post.
My point to the 100 deaths is the reliability of the stats in the first place. If we believe that the former Soviet Union was forthcoming in their calculations then there is no need to carry on a discussion. As far as who provided the stats UN or not, we all know that statistics are produced to support and agenda.
I am not a bearshitter with regard to nuclear programs. They may take a backseat in the near term, but there is far too much at stake for countries and corporations who are involved in this space.
My only point, and I should have been much more clear, was that as much as there are bear shitters, there are far too many downplaying the situation in Japan as well. In my humble, non nuclear physicist opinion, Japan can not afford a “Chernobyl-like” situation.
I will always question any statistic/argument presented regardless of source. From what I recall it is called critical thinking. Sometimes it reinforces my thesis, at times it kills it.
Disclosure: I do not know what an alpha/beta/gamma emitter is, nor do I care. All I know is that the situation is fucked up and can still get worse.
Disclosure2: looking at gong long CCJ and even UUU-t.
(laughter) don’t take what I said personally, believe me, you’re not the only one what talking about Chernobyl. It was a broad insult leveled at everyone, nothing to see here.
Oh, the difference between kinds of radioactive material are based in three general categories; alpha, beta and gamma. There could be more, but these are the ones I know from what remedial knowledge I have.
They differ primarily in how their interaction distributions (or something so-such-called) are shaped. Basically, radioactive material lets of radiating particles which start at high speeds and decrease. According to quantum mechanics, things that travel fast enough don’t have mass. Massless particles won’t hurt you. Radiation actually only hurts you when it is slowed down enough to interact with your body.
So the three have different median lengths before they interact. Alpha has a decent sized length that sort of extends indefinitely, I think; dangerous to be around. Beta has a very short range, you can actually hold the stuff because it won’t penetrate the skin. However, God help you if you swallow it, because no doctor can. Gamma is interesting in that it has a finite maximum length. Gamma radiation is used in medical treatment (like the Gamma Knife) for this unique distinction.
I think there’s more, but my comment was more to show that radiation leaking isn’t necessarily a problem. And, as long as the half life of said material is short enough, the repercussions of these leaks of radioactive material (if any are occuring at all) are probably going to be severely overstated.
Radiation isn’t coming from Japan to the US. Tiny radioactive materials are (which your body absorbs and will irradiate you slowly from inside). Distance of penetration isn’t an issue. Like sitting in front of an old cathode ray TV or computer monitor, yes, beyond a certain distance all of the high energy electromagnetic radiation has been absorbed by the atmosphere, but if little TV’s are incorporated into your body, radiation and cellular damage is unavoidable. That is the danger.
No, penetration depth is always an issue. For nuclear materials that have a longer interaction range, absorbing them into your body isn’t a concern. The radiation emitted by said particle will exit your body before slowing down enough to do any damage.
The question is, what kinds of materials are being released and how do they behave? If it’s fucking plutonium, I can understand why people are afraid. Even uranium particles, to some degree. But if it’s just a bunch of smaller isotopes with short half-lives, who gives a shit.
Actually, disregard the body of this post. I confused the kinds. I’ll just drop a post of radiation later clarifying.
As a space nerd, I have been very interested in the effects of radiation on people (because of higher radiation fields on the transit to Mars). The expected dosages (from cosmic rays and solar flares) is expected to only elevate the chance of contracting cancer by 2-5%. This is far more radiation than Americans will see in the blow-over from Japan. It has been often said that if they wanted to reduce an astronauts risk of dying of cancer, find one who smokes, make him quit, and send him to Mars.
My mom lived in Nevada for part of her childhood. Ate some snow as a toddler around 1959 or 1960. They lived about 300 km from the Nevada test site. The snow gave her radiation blisters on her mouth, throat, and hands. So radiation in high doses is problematic. BUT THAT WAS NUCLEAR BOMBS IN THE OPEN ATMOSPHERE! This will all blow over soon enough, and nuclear power will continue to be the green alternative to anyone with a modicum of understanding surrounding the global energy balance. Since ~1980 reactors have been built tougher, and after this they will be really really tough (survive A-380 hits, etc.). Generation III, IV, and thorium reactors are coming too.
Uranium stocks will recover. For maximum bounce from these levels, I recommend Hathor HAT, Forum uranium FDC, and other non-producing juniors that stand to bounce back into the stratosphere.
No worries and no offense taken
Hence my tongue in cheek disclosure
Cheers
PS thanks for the physics class last time was 1st yr physics class
Tough texting while driving
They made it illegal to text and drive in Michigan, so now people put the phone between their knees while they text. Much safer, I’m sure, than just holding the phone in front of their faces.
I completely agree regarding nuclear power, especially the fuels. I’ve got a shopping list prepared complete with wine and yellowcake.
My only beef is from a design perspective. From an engineering point of view you should have multiple redundancies to prevent failure, especially in an area prone to an array of natural disasters. I’m wondering how the emergency generators failed in the facility and why sufficient exhaust systems were not in place to remove hydrogen gas. When designing cooling systems in high priority data centers, for example, you want to isolate as much equipment that can fail other essential equipment as possible.
I’m sure you’re right with separating critical systems and multiple contingencies, that’s just common sense.
But, I’m going to cut them some slack with the whole 8.9 earthquake / 20+ ft. tsunami combo. That’s end-of-days shit. When they built the plant next to the water, they probably thought they were being smart; easy access to cooling liquids in case of the worst. The idea that the entire town would get taken out, and all available aid with it, was probably never even postulated.
And really, if someone said to you “well fuck, sure this system is capable of taking one hell of an impact, but what happens if a tidal wave strikes this thing, or a comet, or God just lights it up with his pinky?” would you have taken it seriosly?
Don’t know if you need more anecdotal evidence/predictions for the rise in rent, but….
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/15/real_estate/rent_rise_housing/
Of course, this could just be adding to the chance of confirmation bias, but the thesis seems to be playing out.
It’s a thing of beauty, Bob. I’m refusing to sell any multi-family REITs, and I might add more. I’m hoping that REITs will be resilient / rally despite the latest economic turmoil.
Oh, I forgot to post that I purchased UEC today, for like $3.66 or something. Posted on Twitter and in the PPT, if anyone feels like challenging my character.
I’m considering buying some REITS, specifically AEC and CLP, but I’ve been pretty loathe to buy anything in this environment. I’ve been 95% cash since before the earthquake, so I am trying to assess what my next move will be. Ultimately, I am a long-term guy, but I see a ton of risks to holding stocks even with a catalyst. I suppose I need to get over that.