Fly Buy: FXP

I bought 5,000 [[FXP]] @ $81.90.

Disclaimer: If you buy FXP because of this post, the next time you’re in Mexico, the policia will arrest you and hold you for ransom. And, you may lose money.

I sold 10,000 shares of [[SKF]] @ $111.

I sold 100,000 [[MVIS]] @ $4.40.

Without a doubt, the ‘next shoe to drop’ is in retail. With unemployment rising, coupled with the ‘credit crunch,’ expect to see wholesale liquidations of some retailers.

If [[M]] is not careful, they could have a big crisis on their hands, like many others.

The companies with big overhead and inventories, like [[SHLD]], [[JCP]], [[KSS]], [[DDS]] and [[TGT]] will get devastated in a recession.

However, at the same time, incredible value will emerge, once the morons who run those companies stop wasting money, via buying back stock, and start closing unprofitable stores.

To me, despite what Cramer says, SHLD seems like the weakest of the pack.

I bought 3,000 [[EEV]] @ $78.80.

Disclaimer: If you buy EEV because of this post, the next time you make toast, you will get electrocuted. And, you may lose money.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBsO0b5pArg 450 300]

He was sent by the Germanian bears, about 2:10 into the clip.

With the market knifing lower, I am prepared to buy [[RIMM]] under $100, for a trade. I believe the stock is under pressure, due to the jobs numbers.

Plain and simple, RIMM receives a lot of their revenue from professionals. When those fuckers get shitcanned, well then, they cancel their stupid blackberry service.

However, it’s still too early to see that reflected in the company’s numbers. Like I said before, I expect the stock to get the stuffing kicked out of it, during the 2nd half of 2008—not now.

Therefore, on this dive, it makes sense to put in a limit order to buy @ $100 and below.

If you think the credit crisis is bad now, wait and see how it looks when unemployment is at 5.5%.

I know many of you, stubbornly, believe the Fed will somehow waive its magic money stick and everything will be alright.

Rubbish.

It is natural for the economy to go into recession, following years of uninterrupted growth. Using band aid solutions to keep the party going will only exacerbate problems in the future.

While it’s true, I believe the Fed should cut rates aggressively, down to 3% or lower; it won’t help the economy or the stock market until 2009.

Plus, by then, we will have a newly elected President, who may have an interest in fucking Wall Streeters.

Look you, the signs are everywhere. Just look at RUTH. Even fat fuckers are staying home, opting not to clog their arteries in public.

The Fed can’t help the fat guy, who will be paying $4 a gallon for gasoline by April, pay for $200 dinners at RUTH or even $20 snacks at WEN.

What to do now?

Position for recession. However, understand, along the way, there will be many false rallies—particularly when the Fed cuts rates.

Fade those spikes.

Right now, [[FXP]] is cheap, mainly due to a gap up in the shares of PTR. Should PTR weaken throughout the day, FXP will print $82, for shizzle.

I bought 1,000 [[FXP]] @ $80.20.

Disclaimer: If you buy FXP because of this post, stupid deers will get in the way of your speeding car. And, you may lose money.

Unemployment rate eclipses 5%.

Recession is a foregone conclusion.

Fly wins again.

Sell until there is nothing left.

Odd, no?