Nas – It Ain’t Hard To Tell

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-_IFAt8ka0 450 300]

I do not blog about the readings of my “calculator brain,” without caveat. While here, if you cannot control your infantile behaviour [sic], I will have to ask you to leave and dive into a cup of water.

Back to the market:

The financials were bloodied today, led by the “fortune cookie morons” at [[LEH]]. However, what really spooked investors was the sharp slide in [[JPM]].

If you are short the “Reverse Four Horsemen,” [[FHN]], [[FED]], [[CORS]] and [[DSL]], now may be a good time to take profits. As you know, I exist to talk shit and bank coin. My goal, as always, is to cut out the noise and focus on what is going to make me money.

I know a guy who wastes all of his time with charts, reading through regulatory filings, and consistently loses money, with his ridiculous picks—with reckless abandon.

On the other hand, there are guys like Ragin, who just look at a tape and can spit out winners, with “God-like” proficiency. As in sports, sometimes it doesn’t matter how much work you put in. If you don’t have it; you cannot bat cleanup.

This applies to many of you, “mountain fucking smores eaters.” Don’t try to be “The Fly.” You will only disappoint yourself and bankrupt your family.

All day, [[SRS]] and [[RIG]] charged higher. I really like that pair trade, long both. One would think, with all of the fire and brimstone being thrown at the housing market, commercial RE will, eventually, be affected. My bet, as always, is that SRS will print $120+, before August 1st.

On the short side, I still like FED here. However, if you’re uncomfortable holding it, cover immediately. Just know, the easy money on the downside has been made. Now, that doesn’t mean stocks will rip higher.

Quite the contrary.

Equity valuations are still stretched, factoring in the amount of writedowns and writeoffs that will have to be taken, within financial sector. In addition, the incredible amount of input costs, thanks to inflation, will hit home, eventually—poleaxing the industrials hard. Mark my words.

In the meantime, there is always a chance for a quick short squeeze, before the next leg down.

This is how “The Fly” is positioned:

Heavy positions in SRS, FXP and short CHL.

Minor trading positions in short FED and a variety of other egregiously overvalued banks/brokerages, like [[SUSQ]] and [[COWN]].

Long energy related names.

Big enough cash position to protect myself from a short squeeze or gap lower.

All in all, “The Fly” is pressing the envelope, now up more than 30%, year to date.

Top pick: Short CHL

Tech is dead. Look at [[GOOG]], [[BIDU]] and [[MSFT]]. Dead as dead can be. Dead as a dick stuck in a door.

I’ll have you know, this is nothing more, or less, than a summer malaise. No one has an interest in defending stock prices, while the temperature in NY is 100 degrees, the banks are lying/dying, and the beaches at the Hampton’s are open for business.

This should tell you something about your Godly host, “The Fly.”

Nothing keeps me away from the trading turret. Without a doubt, it will be the death of me, putting myself through so much anguish and nonsense. However, this is what I love to do. As a painter finds pleasure in combing colors and creating beauty, I like to kick old fuckers down stairwells, especially those in wheelchairs. But, I digress.

Let’s have a ball and bank profuse amounts of coin, while the sleepers sleep and the losers lose.

I can tell you, with the utmost amount of accuracy and frankness, Willie Randolph will be fired by the All-Star break and [[CHL]] will trade in the 50’s. These two “future facts” are not debatable nor can they be stopped.

As an aside, look for the oil barrel retards to start mounting another gay rally.

Crude to $150 and the Dow to 11,750, by July.

[[FED]] is being “Ducatied” today. It’s still going lower, mind you.

1. Ducatied

The act of going lower, even though Ducati says it shall go higher.

That’s it. I’m preparing for a thermonuclear blast. I have my bunker ready and enough ammunition to wipe out all of my neighbors, should they possess enough testosterone to invade my territory.

A friend of mine believes I might have to arm myself, in order to protect my refrigerator, in the coming years. On that news, I might buy an RPG or SAM missile battery. You know, just in case.

Looking at today’s tape, I can tell you, with 100% conviction, it’s going lower. You do not need the luxury of time travel to see what’s in your fucking face, jelly knockers!

With my money, I will cordially buy shares of energy related names, while selling short everything else, minus financials. I just think, if something is going to bounce, it will be the banks.

Instead, I like the usual suspects here: FXP, SRS, short CHL…. blah, blah, blah

I sold out all of my bullshit energy plays, except [[LEI]].

I have no time for such games.

Listening to the [[LEH]] call, I can tell you that firm is fucked, for quite awhile. Thus far, they’ve raised over 12 billion dollars (2008) in new capital, yet the firm continues to struggle with its balance sheet.

As a result, they have de-leveraged their balance sheet to 22:1. However, it’s worth noting, the graspy voiced moron of a woman on the call suggested they may up their leverage in the future. Their book value, which is a moving target, is now $33. Their hedges did not work, over the past quarter. And, finally, Lehman’s level three assets have not gone down.

To sum things up: LEH was “scared straight” and sold out of a lot of positions, in order to reduce risk. Ironically, their hedges, that are meant to reduce risk, actually increased risk over the last quarter— resulting in retarded losses. The fact that LEH was a monster seller of assets this quarter, means [[MER]], [[MS]] and [[GS]] are just sitting there with their fucking thumbs up their asshats.

With regards to other banks:

In general, banks are being walloped today. Stay away.

On the long side, I really like [[RIG]] here. The stock has been beaten up, because fucktards with jelly on their bifocals have been selling it. I like it, up to $155.

Also, I like [[FTK]], [[FXP]], [[SRS]], [[NOV]], [[PCZ]] short [[CHL]], short [[LFC]] and short [[COWN]].

The market looks like shit on a skateboard, rolling down a garbage heap of molded salmon.

As we know by now, [[LEH]] has manged to raise another 6 billion dollars, part equity, part convertible preferred stock. In my estimation, this is a net positive for the company, despite the dilutive terms of the converts, being priced at an 18% premium to the common.

Unfortunately, I do not have a short position in LEH at the present. However, it’s worth noting, I did tell you fuckers to sell it short on Friday.

Bottom line: If I were short, today is a good day to cover and wait to sell higher. I expect there to be a bounce here.

Click here to access 10am conference call.

This is getting embarrassing.

I never thought I’d see the day when my country’s financial institutions were minimized to the equivilant of a homeless man aka bum, with cup in hand, asking for money from the tourists shopping on Madison avenue.

Fucking pathetic.

They get the fortune cookie.

In other news, “The Godly folks” at iBC have several monster wins lined up.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d12EI3xNiqE 450 300]