I SOLD EVERYTHING LAST WEEK

You stupid fuckers love to get under my nerves, with comments like “I bet Fly will say he sold VXX and TZA last week.” Naturally, those type of comments are concocted by men with serious mental defects, as a woman would never dare stoop so low. No, dick lover, I did not sell my VXX and TZA last week. Think of TZA as a taser gun, dialed up on high. Then imagine “The Fly” taking a shower in the sunshine singing his favorite gangster rap song. Then, if you could follow me here, imagine a criminal, dressed in a VXX Halloween costume barging into my “sunshine shower” to kindly offer me a TZA (taser dialed on high) to the fucking face. That’s the sort of day I am having, so have respect for those in mourning.

Breadth is incredibly bullish today, which is helping my longs push higher. Remember, aside from the spastic VXX position I find myself comedically long and wrong with, I do have a 40% long exposure, with BAC being my biggest.

Nevertheless, with the sort of breadth I am seeing today, I am shocked we are not up 2-3%. Believe me, I will not dare say “oh, since we’re not up 3%, we’re going lower.” I hate smug fuckers like that. However, I will tell you, this is not enough to scare me out. If you want to scare me out, you’re gonna have to do better than this.

With yen storming higher and TLT nearly unchanged, I remain stoically wrong, yet unchanged in my position.

This move is unsustainable. You will not believe me tomorrow, when the most retarded stocks known to mankind are off to the races. However, as sure as I am sitting here, you will believe me soon.

I’m long banks because there is a real value proposition in BAC/C. But this market is not being fueled by banks or retail stocks or tech stocks. It is being propped up by a new class of stocks, that trade separate to industry, logic, and far away from traditional valuation metrics. Just like people said the dot coms can keep going higher in 2000 and the banks could all soar to $300 and split 5 for 1, due to momentum, degenerate momentum traders are out and about saying the same shit about this new class of stocks—as if we haven’t seen this shit before.

Truth be told, momo stocks are incredibly hard to break and I do not suggest shorting them, since the laws of reason to not exist there. It’s sort of like trying to discern the difference between smoking three viles of crack or 10. You done fucked up with the first, no need to get snooty now. Ya dig?

One day, the following names, if not acquired by HPQ, will fuck up this market something awful:

AMZN, BIDU, LVS, CRM, VMW, NFLX, MELI, PXD, EGO, LULU, IOC, RAX, ARMH, ARUN, SNDK, CTXS, CMG etc.

Remember, earnings and growth look great until they don’t anymore. The proverbial rug is often pulled from companies when they least expect it. The simple truth of the matter is: money managers have been piling into the same stocks, in order to avoid risk. As odd as it sounds, from a macro perspective, there is far less risk buying AMZN at 50x, than a bank with billions in toxic assets. We are at a point where the bubble in momentum stocks is so egregious, no one dares bet against them. For the love of broken X-mas presents, NFLX just sprinted $40 past $100 in a few short months. Hello!? That’s a 40% increase in market cap. That my friends is what I call “fucktarded.” But who is gonna bet against them? Not me.

Look at the VIX–near new lows. That tells me we are awfully complacent with the current arrangement of things, which entails a woefully weak jobs market, high commodity prices and a banking system that continues to suck the tits of the Federal Reserve. All the while, the housing market remains mired in the biggest slump since Greece was burned down by barbarian hordes.

Here is my advice, condensed in a short few sentences:

Know the market you are investing in and do not bitch and complain when it goes against you. I am opting to play this tape, which I deem to be “bubblelicious” via a large cash position (40%). If I had conviction to short names, I would do so. Hell, during 2008, that’s pretty much all I did (short stocks). However, until the hypnotic spell is broken from the small brains of hedge fund managers, I will remain exceedingly cautious and play both sides of the tape, as I expect this market to remain range-bound, although buoyed by the most overvalued large cap stocks since the 2007 banking bubble.

Quick note to those of you who make less than 100k per year, yet choose to shop at Louis Vuitton or Gucci: don’t do that. You look like a fucking jackass. Work on building up your net worth, prior to wasting it on homosexual fashion trends (hip-hop homos).

Back to the important matter of watching me improve upon the best investment tool ever invented for retail usage. I have a new tool in beta that is designed to improve efficiency of trades, during the famous OVERBOUGHT and OVERSOLD cycles. In other words, you see me post all of those PPT charts, with numbers on them, right? Well, those numbers represent “cycle changes.” Let me be more specific: when the Overall Hybrid score (which represents both fundamental+technical data of more than 4,200 stocks) flags OVERBOUGHT (score higher than 2.95), The PPT enters a new OVERBOUGHT cycle.

It gets better.

To date, there have been 16 OB cycles, excluding the current OB cycle. What this new tool does is track the price performance of all stocks during previous OB–>OS cycles. Get it?

With this data, I am able to truly utilize the algorithmic genius of The PPT, by way of revealing what stocks should be purchased or shorted with impunity—during said cycles. Then, on top of that, after I find a name, I can search individual OB/OS cycle stats to better understand how long it might take for the stock to get going.

Let’s use SPY as an example:

As you can see, The PPT OB/OS cycle change signals have been extraordinarily accurate, with an 81% win rate timing bottoms and 69% timing tops. Keep in mind, I can request this data for any stock or ETF, some with far greater efficiency than SPY. However, since SPY best represents the market, as a whole, I thought it only made sense to be totally transparent about how accurate PPT was at timing tops/bottoms.

Okay, let’s dig deeper. When the Overall Hybrid score flags “OVERSOLD” there is a better than average chance SPY will be OVERSOLD as well, since it tracks the overall market so closely. Looking at previous OVERSOLD signals for SPY, I know that it trades higher only 50% of the time after 1-3 days, for an average return of 0.6%. However,  over a 5-7 day period, my chances for trading success sky rockets to 83%, with an average return of 2.9%.

What is the point in all of this?

Well, it’s important to put things in perspective when trading/investing. Time frames can shake people out of trades, due to the unknown. What I am trying to accomplish, by developing these tools, is to shine some light on how this market truly behaves during inflection points, might I add with great success. The data speaks for itself.

This tool is in beta, so it is not available for public consumption yet, as I am a perfectionist and need to add new features to it. However, when I do release it, it will be added free of charge to all users. That is one of the added bonuses of doing business with a stock market fanatic: I always endeavor to improve and do not require great sums of your money to do so, since I have my own. Thank you very much.

Oh, by the way, I see some of you tech savvy PPT subs trying to reverse engineer your way into this screen data. Needless to say, you have been defeated and are now blocked from viewing it.

Lastly, we are now in the process of adding deviation from mean/median avg. return data into the system.

For example:

During OB cycles, TNA trades lower 69% of the time for an median loss of 6.7%. However, during this current cycle, TNA is up 4.8%, effectively deviating from the median by 11.8%. This data can be mined across The PPT universe (by me only, for now) and is a great tool when trying to understand how overstretched or coiled back a security is, at a given time.

Okay, back to doing shots of patron, no chaser.

DB is going to raise a shitload of capital, in an egregious 30% dilutive share offering. This is some shit out of the 2008, panic and let’s burn the fucking house down, handbook, when banks were raping shareholders in an effort to paper over losses. The truth of the matter is: European banks are likely hiding massive losses, all to do with PIIGS. Now, I am not suggesting this will lead to an eventual and probable collapse of the world banking system as we know it. However, I an suggesting that you should expect these type of capital raises, especially from our European counterparts, indefinitely.

Truth be told, if American accounting regulations were not so corrupt, our banks would need to do massive cap raises too. However, thanks to the politicians on capitol hill, banks can hold bullshit deteriorating “assets” forever, without having to mark them down. The point remains: cap raises are bad for current shareholders, even though it shores up the balance sheets of said banks.

Having said that, I am long C and BAC, mainly because I am a firm believer in trickery and government deception. Go figure.

With 40% cash and another 20% withering away in VXX, “The Fly” is playing defense, even though he expects a pullback. The bottom line is this: despite chopping around here for months, the market has given no signs that the trend is lower. Therefore, it’s important to know when to bet big and when to simply wait it out. I am far more comfortable “surviving” pullbacks and profiting from upswings, then betting on a sharp move lower, especially in an election cycle.

In short, I expect a pullback but will not bet the house and kids on that coming to fruition. For now, with marked exception to my degenerate personal accounts, it’s all about defense for me.

UPDATE: I sold out of SCO, due to pipeline trickery and outright chicanery. There are better plays.

Listen very closely, as you can actually hear technology stocks crashing into one another, like little clouds made from metal. As a point in fact, the bustling metal is giving me quite the headache. Are you not disturbed by it, especially during afternoon tea and crumpets time? Thus far, we have received NOTHING BUT BAD NEWS in the tech sector. Please do not mention AAPL, for they are in a world of their own.

Yesterday’s warnings came from TXN and NSM. Fuck faces from the internets, IGNORE THESE WARNINGS AT YOUR OWN PERIL. Hey, it’s not like I give a shit; but I’m just saying you should take a peak.

OVTI, ATHR, ANAD, CSCO, NETL, SWKS, SNDK= CLAWHAMMER.

That’s all.

Oh, by the way, during OVERBOUGHT cycles, according to the laws dictated by The PPT, GLW goes down 87% of the time for an average loss of 4%. Now you know why I sold out of my GLW last week. On the other side of the coin, in OVERSOLD cycles, GLW trades higher 81% of the time for an average return of 9.6%.

What does this mean?

SHOMP

NOTE: Yes, I see oil is higher. But now ask yourself a question, punk, “is The Fly feeling lucky?”

VXX was down a smidgen. BAC mini goose-stepped higher and TZA was flat. And, to boot, FTK was up a little. My day, essentially, was a grande waste of time. However, I did take on a new position in SCO, entirely bearish on the near term prospects of the black gold. Fuck “the black gold” and everything it stands for.

I can relay my message of doom to you in many different ways. However, I will choose this one:

Within one month’s time, the market will be markedly lower from today’s closing price. You do not need to second guess me or follow my leadership. However, you must respect a man, such as myself, who is willing to speed dice carrots, all the while his testicles are present on the chopping board with. It’s not important for me that you make money, as success is gratifying enough for me. But, you will understand my methods and they will be documented here for the world to see, as these scriptures will one day be added to the Book of King James.

The metals were weak all morning long and it finally caught up with the greater indices. They were like little mosquitoes, draining the market little by little, until it was too weak to stand. Well, here we are now and X is diving into cement pools, with the SPY not too far behind. This is especially disheartening since TLT is down so much. But I digress.

Soon enough, you will come to understand that “The Fly” is blessed by the stock market Gods. They bestow gifts of coin to him, while preparing his harem in the after world. While it’s true, VXX is not behaving and is deserving of scolding hot water to the face. I am subsidized, emotionally, by the joyous action in TZA.

I TZA your face.

In short, prepare for the rollover, AND MORE.

UPDATE: I bought 10,000 SCO @ $15. Fuck oil.

I expected many of you to point your crooked fingers at me, once the market moved against me. Yes, as a matter of fact, this is what it’s all about. Don’t you worry about me, I have my gasoline spray guns ready, with matches not too far behind. You didn’t think I expected to be right immediately, did you? Let me be the first to tell you, coming from a person who is accustomed to be right, this is a process. I EXPECT to be wrong, before vindicated through sweet winship.

We all have choices, while living out our days on this stupid planet. Obviously, you choose to bet against me. How’s that working out for you, year to date?

Yes, the data was good. Yes, the market is higher. Yes, I still think we trade lower.

No hiding.

With today’s sale of GLW, my cash position is now over 40%. Pair that bitch with my 22% VXX and I am pretty damn defensive right now. I could very easily buy more VXX down here; but I’d rather eat fish. Plus anyway, my recent foray into longs like BUCY/FLS netted a good sum of profits for me. I am inclined to play defense on the way down, and aggressive offense on the way back up. But, there is a notable difference in the manner and nature with which I trade my personal aggressive accounts. Keep in mind, small plebs, these are not retirement accounts or the family estate accounts. These are “fuck you money” accounts, where I endeavor to outstrip you in the most belligerent ways known to mankind.

In those accounts, I am up more than you can fathom; therefore, I will not share the percentage return in these chambers. With these accounts, I have dedicated them, exclusively, to trading The PPT ranges. In others words, when it says OVERBOUGHT, or close to it, I sell and bet against the market. When it says OVERSOLD, I go long the most egregious 3x ETF publicly traded, utilizing my intuitive position building skills, only learned in a small part of the world—just east of Flatbush, Brooklyn. I do not debate with computer generated algorithms that have proven to be more than 75% accurate in timing pivot points, for that would qualify me for a rubber room dressed in an Armani sleeveless dinner jacket, and would be pure madness.

Gentlemen, we are in an OVERBOUGHT cycle and will remain in one, until my robots say otherwise (it’s not delusion when it’s true). As a result, I have positioned 75% of the assets in my accounts into TZA. With the remainder of the cash, I will average down in the position, if need be.

For managed accounts, my largest position is VXX, then BAC. With profound warnings in the tech space, my money is betting on rapid VXX appreciation sometime very soon, just in time for the debut of Wall Street 2, as unbelievably stupid as that may seem.

NOTE: Questions are not welcome, nor accepted, on this here blog.

Thank you.

Learn to be patient. Add by subtracting.

Today was not meant for me to do much, so I did little. I sold my GLW, which effectively greatly increased my VXX exposure, as GLW was one of my largest long positions. That was enough. I walked away and haven’t thought about the market since.

I will have my day and I will end up victorious. Rest assured, the markets are bounded by certain mathematical formulas. As it happens, I am in possession of said treasures and use them while traveling through space, in my fucking rocket.

In my opinion, the earnings warnings will come home to roost. Analysts will downgrade investor favorites to “stay ahead of the curve.” The cycle of lower expectations has begun.

Trade accordingly.