Quick note to those of you who make less than 100k per year, yet choose to shop at Louis Vuitton or Gucci: don’t do that. You look like a fucking jackass. Work on building up your net worth, prior to wasting it on homosexual fashion trends (hip-hop homos).
Back to the important matter of watching me improve upon the best investment tool ever invented for retail usage. I have a new tool in beta that is designed to improve efficiency of trades, during the famous OVERBOUGHT and OVERSOLD cycles. In other words, you see me post all of those PPT charts, with numbers on them, right? Well, those numbers represent “cycle changes.” Let me be more specific: when the Overall Hybrid score (which represents both fundamental+technical data of more than 4,200 stocks) flags OVERBOUGHT (score higher than 2.95), The PPT enters a new OVERBOUGHT cycle.
It gets better.
To date, there have been 16 OB cycles, excluding the current OB cycle. What this new tool does is track the price performance of all stocks during previous OB–>OS cycles. Get it?
With this data, I am able to truly utilize the algorithmic genius of The PPT, by way of revealing what stocks should be purchased or shorted with impunity—during said cycles. Then, on top of that, after I find a name, I can search individual OB/OS cycle stats to better understand how long it might take for the stock to get going.
Let’s use SPY as an example:
| Stat | OSOB | OBOS |
|---|---|---|
| Avg Return: | 2.44 | -0.46 |
| # Cycles | 16 | 16 |
| # Win | 13 | 11 |
| % Win | 81.25 | 68.75 |
| Median % return | 2.83083 | -0.497834 |
As you can see, The PPT OB/OS cycle change signals have been extraordinarily accurate, with an 81% win rate timing bottoms and 69% timing tops. Keep in mind, I can request this data for any stock or ETF, some with far greater efficiency than SPY. However, since SPY best represents the market, as a whole, I thought it only made sense to be totally transparent about how accurate PPT was at timing tops/bottoms.
Okay, let’s dig deeper. When the Overall Hybrid score flags “OVERSOLD” there is a better than average chance SPY will be OVERSOLD as well, since it tracks the overall market so closely. Looking at previous OVERSOLD signals for SPY, I know that it trades higher only 50% of the time after 1-3 days, for an average return of 0.6%. However, over a 5-7 day period, my chances for trading success sky rockets to 83%, with an average return of 2.9%.
What is the point in all of this?
Well, it’s important to put things in perspective when trading/investing. Time frames can shake people out of trades, due to the unknown. What I am trying to accomplish, by developing these tools, is to shine some light on how this market truly behaves during inflection points, might I add with great success. The data speaks for itself.
This tool is in beta, so it is not available for public consumption yet, as I am a perfectionist and need to add new features to it. However, when I do release it, it will be added free of charge to all users. That is one of the added bonuses of doing business with a stock market fanatic: I always endeavor to improve and do not require great sums of your money to do so, since I have my own. Thank you very much.
Oh, by the way, I see some of you tech savvy PPT subs trying to reverse engineer your way into this screen data. Needless to say, you have been defeated and are now blocked from viewing it.
Lastly, we are now in the process of adding deviation from mean/median avg. return data into the system.
For example:
During OB cycles, TNA trades lower 69% of the time for an median loss of 6.7%. However, during this current cycle, TNA is up 4.8%, effectively deviating from the median by 11.8%. This data can be mined across The PPT universe (by me only, for now) and is a great tool when trying to understand how overstretched or coiled back a security is, at a given time.
Okay, back to doing shots of patron, no chaser.
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what’s wrong with rubbing alcohol?
“Oh, by the way, I see some of you tech savvy PPT subs trying to reverse engineer your way into this screen data.”
Pro’lly from China, looking to steal the hottest intellectual property on the planet, maybe even the galaxy……just sayin’ ……either that or that Tim guy.
Run the algo, update an svn and create a hook script to push it to the web. No?
And you know, I look forward to the day when there are enough PPT members to swing market control out of the hands of the robots and GS can go suck hiney somewhere in the desert.
Patron shots sans chaser are a Christmas tradition among the men in our family. Sambvka is New Years. You couldn’t guess the shit I’m drinking right now. If anybody does I’ll instantly upgrade their bullshit 12 thread count sheets aka hay that they’re sleeping on.
It sounds like weekends allow oversold conditions to fully germinate.
Grappa or absinthe or Drambuie would be my guess, based on what would be appropriate. .
I fucking hate grappa. That shit is like drinking an all-weather Goodyear tire, and quite frankly, I drink fast enough in the rain thank you. The shit I was momentarily given to drink would make Clay Aiken look straight at a Coney Island Nathan’s hot dog eating contest.
Zima with Grenadine.
Chartreuse
Some friends and I made Mint Juleps this weekend with Early Times, Kentucky Derby style.
Let me guess, you smokin’ weed and drankin’ lean.
12-year anejo Mezcal from the Union de Palenqueros in Oaxaca City, Oaxaca, Mexico. You can’t even buy this in the US.
Patron is crap.
i will have you know that arch has no need to reverse engineer…as i already saw what is there today while meditating ,along with something else that you cant see,i would share but have no idea how since im not tech savy
i love that you post these at times when only the guys who are really working hard will see them. great work
Yes. I work All the time
i joined the ppt because i recognized that my hard earned income from my full-time position as research prof. would be invested wisely using someone who was like myself, a workaholic. here’s wishing you a long life!
Love the logic. Will once again become a subscriber as soon as my larger than life TZA play “gets going”.
A “larger than life” 3X ETF position will net you $360?
ouch, lol.
Fly, you are way behind the times , as usual. Between the PPT and my personal gestalt, I’ve banked tons of coin using SPY calls and puts. Far more than your measly personal accounts. Your posts helps the retail folks too much. Stop doing that.
fuck you slim.its jagoffs like you ,who think that anything, and everything belongs to only them.like your some kind of elitist prick,who is not only arrogant,but a fucking dildo to boot.
This sounds amazing Fly. Thanks!
Funny stuff.
I have a car rotting in my parents drive way while I am away, offered it FREE to a friend and they said they do not want the expenses of an old car. THen went out an dsigned a 4 year lease at $400 a month.
Fidiots.
I know what you mean. I work with someone who is always complaining about not having enough money. She trades in her Cadillac Escalade (needed $2K worth of work) for an brand new BMW X5 for $45K. WTF???
A car saleman is better at emotionally ripping off someone than a mechnic is. That’s all you guys are really saying, and it is true, IMO.
hey FLY, thanks man.like the way you push your work.it’s refreshing to see.kind of restores my faith for this damn country.
Anyone all VXX’d up?
got too much $VXX, its hurts my ass.
monkey butt…….roflmao
Almost time then.
Yeah, I’ve got quite a bit. But willing to buy more if it continues to crater.
Hi Fly,
What is your win/loss ration when you extend your system back in time two or three years? Ever do a historical data analysis?
How about a Monte Carlo test (10,00 passes minimum) to see what the bell curve is for % probability of your wins/loss ratio? That’s the most accurate forecasting number in existence. Care to share?
Thanks,
Bman
That’s 10,000 passes (typo). I’ll sign up if you can provide this data for the major indexes. I have my own trading system but yours works better for measuring short-term market breadth, it seems. Your approach to Fibonnaci’s or support/resistance is more accurate than mine.
all I wanna know who got the popcorn ready child please http://bit.ly/bLthVw
lol.stayin thirsty my friend,tooo much butta on dem corns bro
Fly et al,
The PPT is worth every penny.
However, I still cannot figure out how to post a comment inside The PPT,
the User Note section etc.
For instance on Danny’s videos, I see comments have been posted
but I can’t figure out how to post.
It was too difficult to see which stocks he was discussing on the second video and he did not name them as he spoke.
Any help on posting would be appreciated.
You have to comment on a particular stock, etf or index. Go to the page for the stock by typing the symbol in at the upper right side. You will see all the comments on the lower right side of the page. Scroll all the way down and you will see where to add a comment.
flyaway18,
Click on the stock you won’t to discuss or type it in the search box, after that a page comes up with info about that stock. On this new page, there is place to type your comments at the bottom right.
These comments will then become posted on the User notes page.
Don’t feel bad, that one took me awhile to figure out too.
Here’s a general question for anyone?
Because I’ve only used an actual stock trading platform for a short while now, after having traded mutual funds exclusively in the past, I’ve yet to really understand what going on in my profit/ loss column after hours and during the weekend. It appears that stocks are being traded, even though my balance doesn’t change.
Can some enlighten me?
Brokers typically use the closing bell for final account balance determination on a trading day.
Your win/loss values may be fluid after hours or pre-market, but isn’t reflected in your actual account balance.
After hours prices don’t become “official” until the market opens the next session. Your brokerage firm will not update your account balance until the next open.
That looks like The Splendid Splinter.
Looks more like Roger Maris, not Ted Williams.
Roger Maris it is!
Thanks fellahs for the guidance.
Five-O, I find pre and post bids and asks can be manipulative
and quite volatile.
However, I believe it is the opening price at which the stock trades
when the market opens that day that determines your balance for the stock.
Stocks can rise and fall in pre and post trading and you can buy or sell them, too,
during that time.
Not sure if you have to qualify through your broker as I forget.
Thanks everyone!
Much appreciated!
Texans clock colts, will the wondwr never cease.
Obama will say anything now to look good going into the fall elections.
well fly, looks like you’re in for more pain tomorrow. does everyone on this site lose?
right or wrong, fly shares his knowledge generously. you may disagree with him but being outright rude only makes you not welcome by not only ppt members but other visitors too. show us your market analysis with some convincing materials.
Only the ones called nutfucker.
Awesome stuff Flyseph!
When are we going to combine the brilliance of the PPT with the brilliance of the PDS?
Futures are having a premature ejaculation.
Actually, the bears are just now applying Vasoline. Bulls might insert at any time to finish the job.
The September Surge continues….
I wish bloggers including myself would get off the nibble here and start doing our own homework. Can we converse about hot stocks? Anyone know the hottest retail stock for 2010?
Lets start bring something to the table Instead of waiting around for scraps from the flys table.
Herr Fly,
Sounds like you read ‘Stop Acting Rich’ or ‘the Millionaire next Door’ recently. Two of my favorite financial books. Don’t spend money pretending to be wealthy if you are not.
think i will add to my FAS in the morning if futures look like this