Are You Playing in the Mine Field?

Well…are you?

Today I started a small position in POWI, just to be long into earnings. I really like this company and didn’t want to miss out on a potentially blockbuster  number.

Other than the token small position to fulfill my inner gambler, I doubt there will be many earnings plays for me this quarter, aside from IMMR of course.

For me, this downside is too much to risk, considering my gains are more than 40% for the year. There isn’t a reason in this god forsaken world to hold anything of size into earnings. The market continues to melt up and there are trades to be had on a daily basis.

In the short term, my efforts will be fixed on finding swing trades.

Ideas will be forthcoming tomorrow morning.

I’ve been box-watching, gnoshing (sp?) on snacks and working out like a man committed to steroids–all the while my cash positions sits here at 50%.

I am tempted to buy AMBA, ANGI and ONVO, but not sure.

I want to own POWI ahead of earnings, but also not sure.

Then again, what is sure?

Leaving the bosom (no pervert or tits) of cash is a frightful thing. After all, I can’t lose if I’m not playing the game. Then again, am I even playing?

There is a psychological disadvantage to being in cash for an extended period of time. It dulls the blade and makes you soft, afraid almost, to venture out and play the sport.

Knowing this, but also aware of the pitfalls that earnings season presents, is a delicate line to tow.

BUT I WILL TOW IT, NONETHELESS.

Maybe not today, but very soon, I will begin redeploying my cash, in order to sharpen the blade and get back to risking my life in the greatest sport of all: The Stock Market.

UPDATE: I bought POWI.

I added to my CXO position, waiting for the inevitable $100 roll.

You are now in the black. Granted, it took you more than a year to break even on this pig, after the sleaziest elements of Wall Street had their way with you. But thanks to the stewardship of Zuck (and I really mean that), the stock has risen from the ashes of hell, and is now loitering on the 52 week high list, chilling like a gangster, sans all of the degenerate stuff.

The turn around has been spearheaded by mobile and Zuck needs to be acknowledged for steering his company in the right direction, unlike the peasant morons at ZNGA who don’t even know what a cellphone is. They just expect you to play their stupid desktop games, brainlessly, forever.

In the real world, innovators and go getters are rewarded, while peasant morons are placed in the proverbial ‘fag box‘ for temporary storage.

With a cost basis of  $33 for FB, I am up on the name, finally, and pleasantly surprised by the expediency of the turn around.

Why are you surprised to see Ag stocks getting rolled on? Granted, the reaction is a little harsh, but SQM, MOS, POT, AGU, IPI and CMP have been dead money for more than a year. Haven’t you been looking at the price of corn, or better yet, the general direction of commodities, sans oil?

Following today’s decline, perhaps these stocks are ripe for a bounce. However, the trend is lower because the fundamentals suck. Just know that before you rubber stamp one of your stupid charts.

Just avoid commodities and stick with tech/healthcare.

3-D stocks are getting hit too, off a DDD earnings miss.

COH is sharply lower and we all know why: KORS.

One thing to keep an eye on are the residential construction plays, like MTH, HOV, BZH and LEN. Is this a bump in the road or a warning shot across our mustaches? If housing is heading down, we’re completely doomed. This market will be savagely raped.

MU has been slashed, due to pricing concerns. Although some firms insist this isn’t true, the price action says otherwise. Buyers beware.

Finally, AMBA has dropped to a reasonable price and I might buy it back. “The Fly” is all about finding good prices to buy, then selling them when they get too high.

NOTE: At the moment, I have only two core positions, IMMR and CXO.

I like to follow breadcrumbs to find clues about companies, small little things that might lead to big moves. Case in point, PSMI smoked numbers this evening and the stock is lifting more than 9% in after hours trade.

So what you say?

What you don’t know is PSMI is a major customer of RBCN’s, the sapphire play from hell, that’s been stuck in its retarded trading range for a thousand years now.

VECO reported a milquetoast number and that might weigh, mind you, on the shares of RBCN. A betting man might step in tomorrow, river boat gambling on the future of sapphire, tasting the breadcrumbs, like a bird, that PSMI left behind this evening.

In other news, The Option Addict is 90% ready to launch his new service. It will compliment our suite of products like a 2005 Lafite Rothschild with a medium rare rib eyed steak (lightly peppered, heavily salted). I am hoping to give you fine top hatted folks a free trial for a day or two, sometime this week or at the latest next.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p70pWujbf5c

HLF Herbalife beats by $0.23, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; guides FY13 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (60.57 +2.12)Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.41 per share, $0.23better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.18; revenues rose 18.2% year/year to $1.22 bln vs the $1.16 bln consensus.

Co issues mixed guidance for Q3,sees EPS of 1.09-1.13 vs. $1.16 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q3 revs growth of 11.5-13.5% (Approx $1.13- 1.15 bln) vs. $1.15 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Sees Volume Point Growth in the range of 11.4-13.5%; Net Sales Growth 16.5-18.5%; CapEx in the range of $40-50 mln.

Co issues upside EPS guidance for FY13, sees EPS of $4.83-4.95 vs. $4.80 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY13 revs between 16.0-18.0% (approx $4.72-4.80 bln) vs. $4.63 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. sees Volume Point Growth between 11.5-13.5%; Expects net sales growth in the range of 16-18%; Sees CapEx in the range of $165-185 mln.

$HLF up to $63.20 at the time of this post.

About 70% of stocks are lower today. For those of you who aren’t long the beguiled uranium sector, which has now caught fire to the maximum extreme, today is a boring day. I look at the charts of URRE and USU and ask myself ‘why?’ I don’t have any unique insights on the subject, but can only tell you this pattern repeats itself over and over again.

A sector gets so cold, it gets hot. Everyone who was leaning short, covers and the stock prices soar. This isn’t going to last very long, unless of course we are discussing a fundamental shift, like what took place in the solar sector.

I am going to chill, give myself time to feel comfortable with entry points. When I am trading, I am a vagabond. When I am investing, I have a purpose and feel good about that. Trading is fun and profitable, but I need more. I cannot just move from stock to stock, like some sort of financial locust.

Let them come in and then I will buy them. If they do not come in, I will be forced to keep trading.

Nuclear is the hot buzz word now. I‘ve thought about this long before any of you clowns even knew about these stocks, and have an industry dedicated to it inside of The PPT.

SKS, ELN and PUBGY were acquired this morning. There are so many people who were short SKS, thinking the old high end retailer was in over their heads. I realize the market needs to cool off sometime. Typically, August is a good time to do that. But how can anyone think about selling short when corporations are flooded with cash?

You are playing with fire.

The only way to hedge yourself is via puts or inverse ETF. Trying to be clever with individual stock sales is a high beta trade and opposite of what one who cares about his/her fiduciary responsibility should be doing.

Yes, good morning to you too, pikers. Le Fly has been up since 6, partaking in physical exercises, prepping for the inevitable destruction of the planet earth. I’ve also thought about my 50% cash position and the fact that IMMR is reporting earnings this week. Then I stopped thinking about it.

I am going to plan a trip today, head down south in an attempt to retrace the good steps of a certain General Sherman, whilst flinging lit matches from my automobile.

Everything else is folly.

Futures are lower, but we’re going up again.

I’m not in a very good mood today. I haven’t been my jolly self for more than a week. I find myself brooding amidst the house for no reason. I am sure it’s related to cabin fever, the in-laws staying over, and a variety of work related issues. One thing is for certain, I am never content.

Speaking of which, don’t forget to make my god damned logo. I will pay you for your stupid time and make sure to give your idiot web design firm its proper publicity.

Futures are flat, so I have nothing to say to you–nothing at all. Would you like me to concoct some scenario for you? I will not.

Tomorrow I am sanctioned to participate in redundant crap, away from work. I will get to look at my 50% cash position for half a day, then I’ll be off into the god damned automobile to shuffle around. After that, I’ve decided to begin taking old school steroids, hit the gym, and punch a bag about a million times until my hands bleed and my knuckles break.

When I was a teenager, my best friend and I used to kick each other in the shins as hard as we could, with boots on, just because we were stupid and drunk. Sometimes we’d elevate it to outright punching of the face and chest, leading to black eyes and bloody noses, all the while laughing like two maniac leprechauns. Ah, the good ole’ days.

Okay, this is all I have for you tonight. I am looking at mega-cap stocks that are down more than 10%, YTD.

ABX-48%

NEM -33%

TCK -31%

VALE -29%

LFC -26%

ISRG -22%

IBN -20%

CAJ -19%

BBD -19%

EC -18%

TI -17%

BRCM -17%

PTR -16%

AAPL -15%

CEO -15%

TTM -13%

BSMX -13%

AGU -10%

Distinguished gents may access this screen here. The rest of you can burn in hades.