Calling a Short Term Top in Ag

Classic burn out in the ag space. [[MON]], [[MOS]], [[DE]], [[CF]], [[AG]], [[AGU]] and [[POT]] have been bid up without fear, much to the chagrin of those who short them.

However, today is a classic pile in/pile out trade, where all of the scared/dumb money finds a nice safe home in ag, only to see it blown the fuck up by a thermo nuclear device, as bigger money takes profits.

In short, I am not a bear on ag because of fundamentals, only price.

Best case scenario for the sellers, the above stocks spike then collapse, leading to further selling on Monday.

I believe it’s about to happen.

NOTE: Best way to play it: short [[MOO]] or long [[SMN]].

UPDATE: Lehman Brothers CFO Callan says ‘March was a very, very tough month’- Bloomberg

I must admit, being a Met fan, I enjoy seeing them lose. Those fuckers collapsed last year, stabbing me in the heart, as if I was a fucking vampire. So, this year, I pretty much root for any team that plays against them. On a really big loss, I then tune into 660am and listen to all the frantic fans calling for Willie Randolph’s head on a pike.

I must admit, yet again, Willie is the worst manager in the history of professional sports. He’d be better off managing Wamu’s mortgage pool, than the Mets.

Speaking of [[WM]]

Today, Goldman took down their numbers and recommended to sell it short. On that news, the stock is up.

Very nice.

So what do banks do these days?

They take my deposits and just buy a bunch of stuff that go to zero? What the fuck?

Now, very quietly, they are starting to bitch about marking to market. They want to commit fraud, via zero disclosure and just hide shit on their balance sheets forever.

Hey, I’ve got an idea.

Why don’t we just give the banks a printing press, so that they can just make new money—after they lose the cash they have now. This way, we can ride on the “Merry go round of Bliss” forever, uninterrupted.

By the way, has anyone taken a look at the yuan (Chinese currency) lately?

Here, take a peek:

Does this “MNCS” type trend alarm anyone? It appears the Chinese are no longer pegging to the dollar. Now, I’m not an economist, but it was my major in college.

I have a breaking news flash for you:

CHINA IS NOW EXPORTING INFLATION.

How’s that? Not only do we get their lead tainted toys. Now, partly thanks to our fucktarded politicians, we get to pay up for it.

Hence the term: “be careful for what you ask for.”

Sure, exports are good. But, what does that really mean? Foreign nations are dumping dollars on our shores, via buying our products?

Maybe.

Will Americans have to pay up for their own goods, thanks to the spike in exports?

Definitely.

In short, it’s great to be an American, living outside of America.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZVx4gmFESs 450 300]

If you’re surprised by GE‘s monster earnings shortfall, you’re either incredibly naive or simply inexperienced. Remember, when you put 100k of your savings to work, buying a stock, you’re not buying letters and digits. You’re buying a piece of a company.

Whether you like it or not, the U.S. economy is in rapid decline. The financial system is in flux and stock prices are extraordinarily overpriced.

There seems to be some sort of mind control over many money managers, forcing these morons to rush into stocks.

Why?

Take the rosed colored glasses off for a second and recognize what’s going on. If your method of conservative asset management is to just go with any and all trends, I guarantee you will be caught flat footed, many, many times, effectively leaving your bullshit online account at zero. I’d rather be early to a party and enjoy the fresh food and drink, than arrive late and eat stale bread and drink warm beer.

I’m sure many people got wiped out today in [[GE]] April 40 calls, thanks to the fucktarded advice from people like Guy Adami.

This is my advice:

Forget about making quick money, like a casino player. Think big and you will get big. Try to forecast out 3-6 months, then build positions that will benefit from your forecast.

Then bank coin.

With my money, I want to sell short everything under the sun, mainly because U.S. equity prices are way ahead of themselves. More specifically, I like [[SRS]], [[SKF]], short [[FED]], short [[LEH]] and short [[WM]] here.

Ignore GE‘s warnings at your own peril.

No longer developing.

UPDATE: April University of Michigan Sentiment 63.2 vs 69.0 consensus

DO IT!

NOTE: Please inundate Lord Woodshedder with many negative karma points. Thank you.

Off to thinking about my big win.

UPDATE: Check out Howards office. When “The Fly” dies, his fucking coffin will be bigger than Howards office. Just saying.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ysg3Hv09yJE 450 300]

Stop with the chips already. The analyst from [[BAC]], who upgraded the chips today, is as competent as his firms risk supervisors.

Without the upgrade, the nasdaq would have been flat.

The real story is the current status of the banks. All day, sellers leaned on them, driving down shares of [[LEH]], [[FNM]], [[GS]], [[ABK]], [[DSL]], [[FED]], [[ETFC]], [[MS]] and [[MER]].

Quite frankly, the weather in NYC is too “delightful.” I have no motivation to talk down stocks right now, and act like some sort of asshattish bearshitter. Maybe tonight.

As you know, “The Fly” enjoyed a major personal victory today, which will lead to great celebration and consumption of 2 1/2 inch rib eyes and aged red grape.

I did lots of stuff today, nothing wourth [sic] bragging about or anything. In short, I am extremely comfortable with my market weightings, despite Woodcheddars nuevo bullish tone.

I’ll remind you, people are like goats, easily tricked, easily slaughtered. Right now, the trap is being set, under the disguise of eery complacency.

Finally, “The Fly’s” spring-summer schedule is quite busy, as the little ones get ready for outdoor sports. However, even if I am not around to tell you how fucking stupid you are, just know, every 10-15 days, “The Fly” is thinking about it.

Fuck you. Buy the banks already, especially [[LEH]]—or we’ll kill you.

Hank Paulson, U.S. Bank Rescue Team, Goldman Sachs 

Developing…

UPDATE: Due to the extreme nature of my new “win,” I am unable to share any details with you (internet leech). So sorry.

You may resume to live out your pedestrian mundane lives.

Thanks.

I bought 1,000 [[FXP]] @ $78.55.

UPDATE: I bought 1,000 FXP @ $79.

Disclaimer: If you buy FXP because of this post, your toaster will electrocute you. And, you may lose money.