I’d like to point out the disastrous and ruinous rout of the semiconductor index for 2024 and then follow up with some advice to BE WARNED about chasing them down the sewer hole with shorts. This index has a proclivity of bouncing back. HOWEVER, we are barely into January and the -5.5% drubbing is somewhat profound — placing is on pace to have the worst fucking January ever for the index.
Here are instances when the $SMH plunged by more than 5% for January and then how it did in February.
January
2024 -5.5%
2022 -10.5%
2016 -6.5%
2010 -11.3%
2008 -13.2%
2005 -6.5%
February
2022 -2.8%
2016 +1.4%
2010 +6.5%
2008 +1.4%
2005 +8.9%
The first thing that stands out is the median loss is -10.5% for bad January’s. The second thing is — should be comport ourselves down another 5% from present levels on the $SMH — by God I will dip buy with both testicles and cock in tow.
Now with the fires kindling we want to encourage them to burn bright, fiercer — taking in more oxygen and tinder so that is can amass to a great fire — burning down everything in its path.
I remain steadfast and patient, +35bps short the semis, NASDAQ — hedged with longs and cash of 45%.
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