US 10 YR TOPS 4% AGAIN

The US 10 year bottomed on 12/27 at 3.77% and markets haven’t gone up since. Nearly done for the first week of stocks January 2024, it’s safe to assume, barring a miraculous rally, we have flopped.

Indices are off by 3% for 2024 with many leadership names, such as $AMD, $AMAT, $BA and $AAPL fairing far worse.

Today we have a divergence between the Dow and everything else — mostly due to a risk averse tape and gains in major Pharma. I’m barely up today, +12bps, because I haven’t been aggressive in my trading — mostly because I don’t trust the tape or my assumptions.

At the present, I am 65% cash, hedged with $SQQQ — thinking about how to position into Friday.

OFF TO LUNCH.