The 12-14% gains in the IWM have been wiped the fuck out. Whilst I did lose 3% for the week, I’d like to remind the lot of you that my returns are about +26% for 2023. With these immense talents, I shit-post on Twitter regarding Russian military movements and post pictures of Belarusian dictator ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO inside Stocklabs Pelican Room.
I had booked gains of $20k today, but still ended down more than 2% — mostly due to an FORCED 100% long book. Rules are rules. I will liquidate all holdings at the open on Monday and then reallocate into my weekly quant after 12:00pm.
So what exactly is happening?
It appears the Fed rate hikes and the losses in treasuries have caused immense UNREALIZED losses at the banks. But understand, this is all smoke and mirrors. There isn’t any “real” losses unless you feel the US Treasury will not uphold their debt payments 30 years from now. Also, if rates continue higher, price of long dated bonds will crater again — accentuating the issue. This is why banks and others are switching from long dated to short dated bonds and this is why the yield curve is so fucking inverted.
US 1mo bills are yielding 4.72%
US 4mo are yielding 5.2%
US 30yr 3.7%!
This is a key indicator for recession. But not only that, it also spells some real systemic issued with trying to defeat inflation while at the same time staving off a full blown bank collapse.
Nevertheless, the govt will do something and we might rally soon. I kept a massive UVIX and SQQQ position to hedge my longs in the event we see PACW, WAL, SBNY collapse again on Monday. We are at the edge of the precipice and although I do believe the next move is UP, I would never be able to forgive myself for missing out on what might turn out to be a full blown banking crisis. My losses were somewhat avoidable today, had I traded better. I traded poorly and my timing was off. But it wasn’t all that bad for the week — seeing the NASDAQ’s losses were roughly 8% against my rather moribund 3!
The Fly wins, even when he loses.
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FIG
The FAZ mobile is ready to roll
Still dying at the nerds on the interwebs who think banks like SVB can swap away this treasury move and it’s all just going to be okay.
UNBLOCK ME ON TWITTER YOU COWARD
UNBLOCK ME ON TWITTER YOU COWARD
<3
No
“.. I would never be able to forgive myself for missing out on what might turn out to be a full blown banking crisis.”
Not to worry Fly. There will be other market crises in your lifetime.
I have 20 years on you and I probably will see several more before I head for the largest trading room known to man (human for those woke folks).