We closed October out with a clown horn, losing 115 NASDAQS. The bull theory is 100% predicated upon a Fed pivot. All other narratives have been dispatched to the sea. In the event of a Fed pivot, I am pretty sure the event would be short lived. After the euphoria dies down, investoooors will demand growth.
We are dancing atop a spinning needle, hoping to find a salient of good news to close out what is and what has always been a DISASTROUS YEAR. With Fuckbook down more than 70% for the year, it would behoove you to pretend all is well.
The likely scenario is more disappointment as the Russian war machine gets hot for a winter offensive. Things are going to get worse before they get better. This is not the market you lean into and pretend the bottom has been achieved. We are on the verge of multiple financial panics on a number of axis.
I closed the month +3.35%, now +50% for the year. My performance has been nearly flat over the past 5 months, as I’ve found difficulty committing large sums on the long or short side. I suspect my confidence level will increase as the year winds down. I can tell you emphatically my belief for 2023 is grim. My bias will be shown without hedges in early January.
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FB is appropriately priced. It’s garbage. I know nobody under the age of 40 that regularly uses it.