OIL IS A PROXY FOR RECESSION; THE WAR TAKES A BACK SEAT

Wall streeters are famously retarded and always get caught off guard, raped and ravaged by the markets. Essentially, 95% of fund managers are long only morons who have tricked their clients into believing they’re special by performing at the market. This is why the market flushes out hard during periods of dislocation, as the permanent bull cadre of investor become extinct and extracted from the game of play. These people will always tell you they were up 9% on rally days, yet disappear for weeks at a time when markets are down and when they do show up, they magically have unlimited funds to average down again and again and again and almost always win using the Martingale Strategem.

These people, naturally, must look at their faces in the mirror and know before they fall asleep at night —- they’re god damned liars.

Moving on, WTI is lower tonight and futures soft. For weeks the market hasn’t give a shit about the war, most likely because it’s slow and grinding and NATO is losing. The most important topic for the market now is economic vibrancy, or lack thereof. As such, one can most adeptly monitor such things in the price of crude. As you can see below, the price has been trending lower.

More than that, oil stocks have gotten annihilated, down more than 20% from their highs. I’d posit the most important thing for markets now is for Vladimir Putin to make more money selling crude in the coming weeks, as summer wanes and the autumn and winter looms, especially for the Germans, who will most assuredly face the coldest winter in decades.