iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,329 Blog Posts

Bears Are Running into a Mobile Guillotine

If I was short, I’d cover now. This has all of the hallmarks of a trap. The downside action is in fact too orderly and measured, coupled with a steady VIX. I suspect we will soon see a sharp upside reversal. I could be wrong and this is just a fucking bet, so relax your bras and quit getting your tits worked up.

I am long oil and semis, and lots of other shit. My best thesis trade now is to be tucked away, deep inside of the Jelly Jar and sealed.

Why get long oil here?

A trade, nothing more or less.

Regional oil prices in the US are virtually worthless now and ruin hasn’t been cast across the nation yet. There is always a small window of opportune between reality and figment. Right now we’re living in fantasy land, where Goldman suspects we’ll bounce back by +19% in GDP for Q3. This, of course, is sheer lunacy and far from what will actually occur. Nevertheless, the market is an emotional beast and retards are angling heavy for a quick and sharp decline — because recency bias. Those people are running into a fucking mobile guillotine and will soon lose their capstones.

If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

29 comments

  1. mad marsupial

    I don’t short. But I’m going to throw the BS flag. This isn’t about people and what they want. The machines are, soon, going to see the data. I think they won’t like it.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  2. narcist

    Opportunities abound for both longs and shorts. This is nirvana for the nimble traders.

    I went short some RTY futs north of 1160 since last night–planning to cover sub-1130. Easy money.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  3. narcist

    Oh, by the way… This:

    https://crooksandliars.com/2020/03/nearly-dozen-liberty-university-students

    No need to drink the Kool-Aid when the COVID hoax is making these right-wing kids take the bug home to kill them and their families.

    • 1
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      Oh man if you think that’s good Schadenfreude (12 students at a Christian college catching Wuhan virus after a University President was an idiot) you should try being right-wing and watching New Yorkers fight us on every attempt to reverse some of globalization and tighten border controls, and now at least 40,000 people and counting in New York City have it and can’t get medical equipment.

      Including Chris Cuomo.

      (drops mic)

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • oohrah

        We shall see which side will win out towards the end of this war of attrition.

        Chris Cuomo will recover just fine.

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  4. crabby

    Long Thursday morning for 8+MM first time filing numbers? Not it.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  5. sierra water

    Look at the weekly qqq chart. We perfectly kissed the lower bound long term upward trend line this morning which coincides with the weekly 50 sma. I would be very hesitant to stay long here and would be taking profits if you timed the bottom, which yours truly did.

    • 2
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  6. i_am_nemo

    Maybe they arrest the decline and let it trend down for a year or two or so like other recessions. You can’t shut down the world economy for two months without serious long term ramifications. They simply can’t print enough money to fix the problem.

    • 2
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • narcist

      The Brits are talking SIX months.

      I have relatives in the hotel industry and they are already WIPED THE FUCK OUT–less than 5% occupancy for the hotels that are still in operations.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  7. alty

    Flys readership hanging on every down tick. If we get another thrust up, I predict single digit comments on each post going forward.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • narcist

      Wasn’t that already the case most of last year?

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • alty

        Last year there was no sudden influx of orcs with their 4 figure trading accounts and 150 IQs breaking down the market for the rest of us. We only had NumbersGame for that.

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
        • narcist

          I do indeed have old accounts in the 4 figures. The IQ score was 145 (confirmed by my LSAT and GRE scores when I took them).

          I think he posts comments here (like a diary book) for his own reference. But I don’t see the point of trolling sites when so few people read them.

          • 1
          • 0
          • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
        • peaches

          I’m a 5 figure gentleman these days. Probably hit 6 this year or next.

          Because I have a crystal ball… And today…

          It says…

          “Alty is crusty and old and his dick doesn’t work because he eats too much red meat.”

          Your welcome.

          • 0
          • 0
          • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  8. purdy

    Both bonds and stock can’t get it up. A sign on logic rearing its head.

    • 1
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  9. narcist

    I know South Korea better than anybody. It’s a very tight — do you know how many people are in Seoul?” he asked. “Do you know how big the city of Seoul is?

    Thirty-eight million people,” Trump said,”That’s bigger than anything we have. Thirty-eight million people, all tightly wound together.”

    So he inflated the actual number by 30 MILLION (i.e., 375%). But that’s plenty honest by his standards, since he at least inflated his penis size by a factor of 5 and his net worth by a factor of 100.

    • 1
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  10. numbersgame

    No reason for the VIX to spike, as there have been no big suprises. Plus as I mentioned last week, we are still at End of Quarter support.

    Also, it is amazing that a VIX of

    **** 5 fucking 0 ****

    is seen so casually to the same group that I was warning when the VIX was at 14. Truly frogs boiling in a pot.

    *****

    Either way, the government “named a number that the virus can’t hit” to paraphrase a friend, so we’ll see how things are going towards that end later this week.

    Anybody else download the ***official US government day-by-day death projections?*** No? Fuck you lazy ungrateful bastards. Consider it a gift that I mentioned that it exists and find it yourselves.

    • 2
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • narcist

      Good point. Keep in mind the VIX was relatively subdued in the first quarter of 2009 when the Dow steadily tumbled down to 6500.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • purdy

      When Numbers posts, I’m always reminded of what some political commentator said of Jeb Bush when he was running for the Repub presidential nomination: “It’s like he’s just standing around waiting for someone to appreciate him.”

      • 2
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  11. purdy

    H+S top on spy here

    • 1
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  12. sftradeallday23

    Gavin Newsom just said California is up to 1.6 million unemployment claims since March 13th. They reported only 175k for last week. He also said just yesterday alone they had 150k claims so there is not any deceleration. WOW. Telling you right now.. We just might touch 10 million claims this week. I have seen a number of states that have mentioned data and they are saying 4-5x increase from data they reported last week.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
    • og

      SBA Cares Act loans will help with layoffs, but that will only cover 8 weeks of payroll.

      • 0
      • 0
      • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
      • narcist

        “The fuck do I need loans for?” Said a fraternity brother who owns a bunch of Marco’s pizza joints.

        Nor is he eligible for the tax credits of the program for the royally fucked entities (“whose quarterly receipts are less than 50% for the same quarter in the prior year“).

        • 0
        • 0
        • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"