iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,344 Blog Posts

FED’S BULLARD: Q2 GPD -50%, UNEMPLOYMENT -30%

If you think you’re immune to the pangs of this coming storm, you’re being delusional. Call your advisors, log into your accounts, and sell. If you don’t sell — you’re going to deeply regret it.

Fed’s Bullard is out talking shit today.

UNEMPLOYMENT FOR Q2 -30%
GDP -50% (extra Thanos)

Whether you believe this is an overreaction or not is not relevant. It’s happening, just like wars happened in the past and other shit that humans fucked up. Your disbelief and insistence that this is nothing more than the flu, bro, has led you down a ruinous path to perdition and you will only compound your personal suffering by acting obstinately.

DO NOT BUY DIPS. DO NOT BELIEVE IN MUSTARD SEEDS.

Trade dips, both long and short. You can get long for short periods of time to trade ranges — nothing wrong with that. But the buy and hold mantra is dead. Before it’s all said and done, peak to trough, markets will be down 75%.

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71 comments

  1. discoordinated

    I believe you on the -75% prediction.

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  2. tradercaddy

    Ok. I called my advisor over at Lehman as you suggested especially since its been a few years since we talked. The phone is disconnected. Should I be worried?

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  3. covidftw

    Everyday is a new Battle of Gettysburg.

    When this war of attrition is all over, the white supremacists and their allies (i.e., the entire GOP as of 2020) will suffer much greater losses than the those who will replace them in the subsequent generations.

    GOD IS GREAT.

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    • edge

      Isn’t the Antichrist supposed to royally fuck over the Christians? Why did they want him for president?
      LOL. The Bible nailed it.”The Great Deceiver”. How did they miss that?

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      • narcist

        Plot twist: He will be remembered as the most celebrated Union plant who was tasked to get as many white supremacists and their allies killed as possible.

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  4. alty

    HYG looks like a buy at these levels. Down side risk is limited relative to equities and high yield is likely to rally sooner as well.

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    • alty

      SLYV looks juicy too, at least to start legging into over next several months. Look up small cap value performance coming out of a crisis.

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      • numbersgame

        SLYV is lead by small cap financials (24% wt), probably the absolute last sector you want to invest in IF this turns out to be a depression.

        VBR seems to have a slightly better distribution (more healthcare), especially when you look at their top holdings.

        Either way, you should hedge this with options, inverse ETFs (FAZ) or simply cash as this is another barbell risk/return.

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        • alty

          Hmmm. I’m seeing similar amounts of financials (35%) according to etf.com. Either way I like the lower cost and not sure how I missed VBR. Thanks! Thinking at most adding 0.5% allocation per month to average in.

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        • numbersgame

          https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VBR/holdings?p=VBR
          Usually, the top 10 holdingd represent the sector concentrations. This is the case with SLYV, but not so with VBR.

          Because these are both SMallCap value, I was surprised that none of their top-10 holdings overlap. You might want to investigate why.

          VBR is absed on the CRSP US Small Cap Value Index.
          SLYV is based on the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index.

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  5. edge

    All shit aside this feels like something that just can’t happen. But there is no evidence that it is going to stop.
    Markets are looking for bailouts as a possible liferope but I have my doubts that the bond markets will go along passively this time.
    I’m pretty sure this is our last chance to get it right.

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  6. discoordinated

    This is no recommendation to buy.

    Several states seem to have real declines in cases. CO, LA, GA, FL.

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  7. numbersgame

    When this is over, it will be interesting to see how many lives of the poor are lost becuase of this recession ((lose job -> malnourishment up, homelessness up, drug use up, alcoholism up, suicides up, etc.) vs how many lives of the elderly are extended by a few years.

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  8. Black Swan

    Coffee could be a thing (Disclaimers)

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  9. alty

    Fly did you buy ETH again in March per your 12 month plan mentioned in February? What an opportunity to average down if so.

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  10. narcist

    Futs went limit down in 4 minutes. Probably need only 2 minutes next Sunday night.

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  11. purdy

    Bigots like Numbers and Narcist should serve as a warning to the good-hearted among us: Everyone that we and our families will encounter as this gets worse are not like us. Don’t project your motivations onto those who have been trained to hate and to blame others for their lot.

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    • narcist

      Guess what, Fly? This is how hate looks like:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omaha_race_riot_of_1919#/media/File:Williambrownlynched.jpg

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    • narcist

      The white supremacists and their allies in this channel will are as good-hearted as the white supremacists and their allies I’ve confronted in my entire life.

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      • i_am_nemo

        Dude, shut the fuck up. I don’t know why Fly hasn’t already silenced your blather. Go somewhere else to spew your SWJ malcontent. This is a market discussion forum.

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        • narcist

          Because silencing only means another screen name.

          To quote FDR, I welcome yall’s hatred.

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        • moosh

          Pretty sure Fly has banned him at least once… dudes m.o. is race baiting out of the blue and for some reason he gets off on it

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          • narcist

            Maybe twice. Most of the time I just forgot about the last screen name I used.

            I confess I do relish trolling white supremacists and their allies–they call it “race baiting” because they can’t handle the truth.

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          • flea

            Inferiority complex.

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    • numbersgame

      Bigot? That’s a new one. Other than refering to Italians as “Mario,” do you have anything else to support that opinion? Do you think that it is bigotted that i feel that taxpayer aid shoudl go towards the poor isntead of the rich?

      Or maybe you are just annoyed that my TMF positon which you criticized at the time earned me 33% in 2 days?

      Here’s an idea to you and the other haters: just STFU and I won’t have to publicly humiliate you anymore.

      In fact, that’s a pledge. I’m going nuetral on everyone starting now, with everything water under the bridge. I won’t bring up your utter stupidity if you leave me out of your posts. Now if you want to just state an arguement on why I might be wrong on a trade/view, I have no problem with that. If you just want to level persoanl attacks, then that’s a different story…

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      • narcist

        Take a chill pill–bigot is a back-handed compliment in this particular snide comment.

        I have dealt with much worse than banning and downvoting in real life. Still no fuck given.

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      • numbersgame

        And if you ar talking about my view on Boomers vs COVID-19:
        1) It is either God’s will or natural selection that make even babies less suceptible than Booomers.
        2) It is *decisions* by Boomer lead governemtn officials that decied how the pain – both fincailly and otherwise – from this panadmeic must be distributed, the same group that also decides how the spils of the econmic good times are distributed. Its alsways the same: socialism when it comes to pain, capitalism when it comes to profit.

        2008: bank excutives keep their bonuses, worker pensions get cut.

        We still have the carried interest loop holes for hedge fund managers.

        2018 tax cut

        Governemtnfunded research grants -> private startup profit

        CApital gains taxes higher than wage taxes. And if you pass on the stocks before you sell them, your heirs get a 0% atax rate on the gains.

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        • heckler

          Completely agree. I never asked for this system I never voted for this system. The systems and tech exist for there own sake. I want to escape, akin to how a prisoner wants to escape from his cell.

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  12. traderconfessions
    traderconfessions

    I’ve been trading every day for decades.. have no interest in watching the misery screen.. like trying to navigate in dense fog. Sure one can get lucky. But heroes die in this market.

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    • narcist

      “… heroes (and morons alike)”

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    • edge

      Trader, the biggest problem I have is getting stopped out. It happens a lot. But if you get one running it really pays.
      My stop and price paid aren’t very different. So losses are small.
      I try to buy right after a reversal, I look for a quick spurt on the price. But price can run up and down a candle more than once. The bots are really nasty lately.

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  13. numbersgame

    I’ve heard that the Bailout Bill has gone from $700B to $1.2T to $2T and now is $4T.

    Boy “$4T” doesn’t look like that big a number. Perspective: more than $30,000 for every household in the US. How much of that do you think your family will see?

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    • i_am_nemo

      It’s pretty simple. Value meals at McDonalds will cost $15.00 a year from now.

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  14. numbersgame

    “Holy Shit, This Is Not The Flu”: Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19… Even In Young Patients”
    https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes–terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients

    This is the only firsthand ICU account I’ve read. It’s pretty terrifying.

    “Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth. The ventilator should have been doing the work of breathing but he was still gasping for air, moving his mouth, moving his body, struggling. We had to restrain him…We were all joking: I want to get the coronavirus because then I get a paid vacation from work. And once I saw these patients with it, I was like, Holy shit, I do not want to catch this and I don’t want anyone I know to catch this.”

    I rescind my idea of letting young nurses and doctors volunteer to expose themselves to this…

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  15. cancel19

    Fucks freaking is fun and easy! XD

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  16. tradercaddy

    Watch crude oil futes. Was down 12% + and now less than 1%.
    Just saying. It lead the way down and could lead the way up.
    Watching.

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    • numbersgame

      Volatility is crazy (just like evrywhere else). Oil dropped ***20% in 15 minutes*** on Friday.

      Still, you make a good point. I’ll probably ignore the intraday action (because of the volatility) and keep an eye on the close.

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  17. edge

    I don’t know what to watch anymore. Nothing makes sense most days.
    Mutual funds need to rebalance in the next few days and a surprise announcement about a bailout deal are a big threat to the shorts. At some point price is going to jump but IMO short is the right direction.
    This might be the hardest bear to trade ever.

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  18. ericbakerbruce

    Do not listen to Fly. Buy when everyone else is selling. You’ll be good in a few years time. Heckler, spend your weed money on some solid blue chips with solid balance sheets.

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    • edge

      I’d say that as bears go this drop isn’t real big but the threat is enormous.
      Also at least 20% of the last bull never should have happened. I think best case the S&P is worth 2800.
      Worst case is so bad I don’t want to think about it.

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    • numbersgame

      “Everyone else” has been selling big for 4 weeks. BTD has just been increasing losses. I do agree that balance sheets (not net income) are the key metric to look at.

      In terms of timing/defining a bottom:
      “Simplistically, for asset markets to recover sustainably from the current crisis, we think the market will need to be able to put limits on the tail risks that are currently centre-stage and for new tail risks not to surface…At a high level, we see six conditions that we think would allow the market to define limits to that uncertainty on some key dimension of the problem.” – Goldman Sachs (yes, I know…)
      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stay-defensive-now-goldman-lays-out-6-conditions-market-bottom

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      • Po Pimp

        Balance sheets are always the key metric to look at. ALWAYS.

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    • heckler

      If I qualify for mailbox money I’m going to spend it all on a new pair of the dopest air jordans

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  19. itsgold

    I wonder how many of us will still be employed by end of June.

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  20. i_am_nemo

    Beware political risk with miners. If they have mines outside the country they are listed on, those mines could be taken over and nationalized like oil companies were in Venezuela.

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  21. numbersgame

    In case you missed it, Voting FED Board Meber Neil Kaskari speakign to all of America (60 minutes interview):

    “We’re far from out of ammunition…in the last crisis, we’ve used something called quantitative easing, buying long-term bonds (from Numbersgame).”

    Also, much like Bernanke’s subprime-is-contained quaote, I think this one will go down in infamy a few years down the road:
    “(T)here’s an infinite amount of cash at the Federal Reserve.”

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-and-economy-best-and-worst-case-scenarios-60-minutes-2020-03-22/

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    • edge

      In theory the Fed can create any amount of money. True.
      In theory they can buy every asset in the world.
      Practical limits? Nobody knows.

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    • narcist

      Kashkari (ran against Gerry Brown a few years ago) is one of the few ex-Republicans that are not irredeemable.

      But his background of economics is flimsy at best.

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      • numbersgame

        It’a not his background that’s the problem. Apparently he used to work as a NASA engineer, so I trust that he can absorb any information that others send his way.

        However, it’s the utter arrogance of stating something like that on National TV. You woudl think that having shot blanks three times in a row would give him some humility about the FED’s power.

        I’ve wodnered what the cosequences woudl be of the FED buying massive amounts of Treasuries (or other CBs doing the same and acataulyl adding stocks to the mix), but there is no historical precedence, so nobody knows (as edge said). However, not knowing and not worryign are quite different, and it’s dangerous for someone with such a powerful position to not seem to have any concern about it.

        #InfiniteCashkari

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  22. narcist

    Stock markets free-fall continues half a world away. This is the NZ smallcap index attempting to retest the 2011 lows:

    http://pasteboard.co/J0nhauh.png

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  23. flea

    Fed is off and running … Dow futures have gained almost 1500 since they started buying.

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