Everyone I know hates the Fed, not because they’re necessarily bad people — but because we view them as cheaters — men and women who manipulate stock prices to keep the facade going long enough in order to avoid blow ups. I get why people hate then and I can certainly understand that point of view from a person short stocks into Fed action.
NOT FAIR. They cheated!
But do they have a choice?
Warsh, occasionally rumored to be a candidate for Fed chairman after Jerome Powell’s term expires, spoke Friday morning to CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” He recommended the Fed act as quickly as Sunday to assuage financial markets that have been in an aggressive swoon all week as the virus has spread.
“This thing’s moving pretty darn quickly,” he said. “At the very least, a statement on Sunday night before Asian markets open would buy them a little time and let us all learn a little bit more about where things are.”
He said the Fed doesn’t have a lot of ammunition to help markets and the economy so it needs to act quickly in a coordinated fashion with other central banks like the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan.
“They’ve got a knife. There’s a gunfight,” he said. “You might as well go find some friends that also have knives and see if you can’t to it together.”
They trotted the former Fed governor Warsh out there this morning to tell markets the Fed will be mulling about what to do over this weekend, “in order to buy time” for markets. We have been crashing, worst point declines ever, so I get why they want to stem the tide. Don’t get all uppity and say “there’s nothing they can do this time,” which is wrong. The Fed has no choice but to acquiesce to the demands of markets — because of the debt and the obligations and our addiction to cheap money. So let’s not even bother waxing poetically about the need for a hard reset and how millennials all deserve a strong dose of reality before they start moving into the suburbs to raise their families.
This is a game. You either play it well and try to think like the other person and front run or you play it poorly and obstinately make decisions based upon your feelings. I don’t know for sure when markets will bounce — but it’s coming soon and you best prepare for it. Shorting into the hole is never a good idea and we’re in a deep crevasse now. Exodus OS signal flagged yesterday, representing the technical lows reached during the late 2018 market rout. You remember that one right? Well this tape is as bad as that. We’re presently 28% higher from those doomful days and the Fed is to thank for that — sucking Trump’s dick the whole way to 1.21% on the 10yr, currently down a staggering 8bps.
The losses in the futures market have halved. I woke up at 5am to see Exodus brimming with comments, discussing the latest virus stock to rise 200% overnight. I didn’t even know stocks traded at 5am. What in the fuck is going on here? They’re all up like crazy this morning — massive cleaves cutting off the cocks of short sellers. See them all rise and cause FOMO and then see them collapse.
Virus stocks p/m: $LLIT +22%, $VIVO +15%, $BIMI +41%, $INO +10%, $NNVC +10%, $TRIB +90%, $LAKE +35%, $NVAX +23%, $OPGN +48%, $VXRT +48%, $GHSI +36%, $AEMD +10%, $CODX +17%, $VIR +25%, $APT +38%, $IBIO +102%, $AHPI +110%
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 28, 2020
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