The Editor in Chief of the China Globe Times has been making waves on Twitter for his seemingly ‘in the know’ reports on the US-China trade deals. Judging by his recent tweets, the trade war is about to take a turn for the worse.
Today, I asked one from Chinese side who knows the trade talks well, how many possibilities there still are to reach a deal before Friday. His answer is: 0. If it is that bad, the real suspense is whether the two sides will continue negotiations after Friday.
— Hu Xijin ??? (@HuXijin_GT) May 9, 2019
The Chinese delegation is at the airport and will take off soon. Some ask why bother to go to the US for talks given what had happened?This is also a question for the US side, why still bother to invite the Chinese delegation? I want to emphasize 'invitation'.
— Hu Xijin ??? (@HuXijin_GT) May 9, 2019
China has fully prepared for an escalated trade war. It is a new strategy of China to engage in trade talks while fighting a trade war. I think China bets on the fact its politics is more powerful than US politics. Trade war will be decided by domestic politics eventually.
— Hu Xijin ??? (@HuXijin_GT) May 8, 2019
Although the Chinese delegation decided to go to the US for negotiations, as far as I know, the situation is more tense than the Western media speculated. The possibility of an escalation of China-US trade war is seriously increasing.
— Hu Xijin ??? (@HuXijin_GT) May 7, 2019
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the damn Chinese have done their homework and read the Donald’s ‘Art of the Deal’ as well as Sun Tzu’s ‘the Art of War’
get ready for a whole lot of Art
The Le Fly – when is gold going to rip tits to $3000?
This musical chairs has to come home to roost. Shit celery is $3.99 WTF
The great Oglala Lakota chief Low Dog – “Today is a great day to buy”
The same setup that has driven this market for ten years is intact.
The biggest difference is that manipulation to the upside has increased and both the Chinese and The Turd want to appear more badass than they really are.
Raise a little cash, maybe a few hedges, but mainly be long.
Should the USA allow itself to CONTINUE get bullied & taken advantage of by China as it has the last couple decades justbecause a few greedy pigs on Wall Street can’t stand a pullback of any kind?
Fly, thanks for pointing this out.
OF course, there is no way the editor would be allowed to post this without full consent of the Chinese government. So the real question: for what purpose is the Chinese government sending this message? The obvious purpose is to make it seem like they are fully willing to walk away. I think it is a bluff.
Think about the conssequences of a no-deal, full-on trade war. For the US it is likely a recession, and Trump will lose about the only reason that Independants have for keeping him in office. But now think about it from the Chinese side.
They have a President *for Life*, It is not as simple as the party in power switches, because there is only one party. They have a 1,4 billion people that they need to keep reasonably happy. They have very little freedom, but they can still presently survive. China has not developed their internal economy enoguh to go through a major recession without people literally dying. Their debt problem is also bad.
A Great Recession in the US would not fundamentally change things here. Perhaps it would just shift the baalnce of power between econmic classes more towards the middle again. However, in China it could bring down the goverenment.
Read this for some background:
https://qz.com/741931/qza-with-hu-xijin-editor-in-chief-of-global-times/
Numbers- yep.
I like your reply. I want more substance for this however: “…there is no way the editor would be allowed to post this without full consent of the Chinese government.”
Is there any great links that outline this problem? I am obviously aware of history and how communist regimes are generally operated but I would love to be able to leverage actual examples of current Chinese crackdown.
Well, that was based on my own thinking. Of course, any intelligent person will question their own biases, so I did some resrearch after I posted and found the interview above that seems to have anticiapted your question.
One clarification: I do think that base on the 2 countires hard-lines stance, ther is very little chance of a trade deal happening this week. Besat case is that Trump postponse th deadline based on improving trade talk progress. That’s the stanadard playbook now, but the market always seesaws anyway.
It may be that the Chinese system could tolerate real stress a lot better than you think – – they’ve lived it in the recent past. While we are so soft that we go all vagina hat if someone is rude.
China’s method of dealing with economic stress is the same as the US: lots of debt propping up zombie businesses. In the long run, sinking money in unprofitable investements is not a constructive, as it only pushes the problem down the road, at the same time magnifyign the negative consequences. China has a huge debt problem as well as the US, but it is more at the “state” level than the federal one. However, it makes no differnce as they’ll still ahve to be bailed out.
Also, if someoen raped you and nobody gave a shit, then you’s probbaly go “all ass-hat.” For example, rape is sexual intercourse without consent. Federal law states that intoxicated peopel can’t give consent, but in some states like North Carolina, this isn;t the case. Hope you don’t have a daughter going to Duke University…
Ah, so that’s what rape is. Thanks.
But consider not posting answers to the voices in your head in some other forum. Perhaps a therapist.
Ah, Mr. Fly. The chicoms are at our doorstep, and I don’t see either side blinking. I’m guessing trade talks will collapse and everything will rip to new highs, because we’re living in an Alice in Wonderland market.