If the market went down 5,000 points from here, I wouldn’t forgive myself for what I did today. Because of my indecorous behavior, making excuses for myself due to absence and a busy schedule, I somehow ended up in Greek shippers that were literally cracked asunder this morning, producing garish losses in my trading account. This circumstance soured an otherwise gentile demeanor and caused me to increase my cautiousness and lie idle whilst markets caved.
The narrative that I had planned was one of a predator, agile and ferocious, ripping into the flesh of the zebra; but instead it was I who became the hunted, convalescing in the dark as my pride tore through the prairie like a jagged blizzard. I missed the turn and took losses. My SPY sale was 5 points below present values. I permitted an isolated event, getting stung by a few bad stocks, limit me and blind me to the bigger picture.
Even still, I remain stoically recalcitrant in the idea that the market has been bastardized and there’s no V shape recovery in store. I believe we’ll plod around the bottom and eventually W shape higher, using time as the elixir to heal the wounds that have impugned us.
Nevertheless, we have record lows on the Exodus OS and Ragin Cajun was kind enough to plot them against the SPY. Here’s all scores under 2.20, since 2008. Not too many.
Into the waning minutes of trade, I am 100% long in my Quant account, 80% cash in my trading. My confidence, if nothing else mattered, has been bruised; but this too shall pass, just like it has in the past. If you’re like me, suffering from a few bad trades, find solace in knowing the vast majority of experts, people like me who’ve done this forever, lost money too during the great fall of 2018. It’s important to move on and even more important to avoid getting lured into a false bottom.
There will be time to buy breakouts, if they’ll ever come again. But if you’re diving in here, you’re playing for a strong bounce. If you catch said bounce and are fortunate enough to make some money, don’t forget to take profits.
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This is a political (yet politically neutral) proposition: The general direction of the market is down between now and the inevitable impeachment initiated at the U.S. House of Representatives.
They will more than likely draft dozens of articles of impeachment, most of which are valid and germane (in my opinion), just to troll the Senate and the White House.
I personally don’t think Trump deserves to be impeached for lying about having a big dick that he clearly doesn’t have.
The tax returns though.
I agree with conservatives that based on evidence I’ve *seen* Trump should not be impeached. However, who knows what Mueller has or what Trump’s tax records contain is a different story. Looks like Justice is prepping for a bomb drop on Nov 7, knowing full well, that Sessions and/or Resenstin wll be gone – either of whom will be replaced by a Trump swamp creature with effective direct control over Mueller.
Can’t count on the DOJ for shit. Trump will replace Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III with another Confederate General. Case closed.
But my man Elijah Cummings will be ruthless when he takes the gavel. There are great moments in history to be made @HouseOversight.
Take a look at this: https://www.finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=earndate
All of that bright pink means volatility ahead. The market will move 10% in the next two weeks, but the direction is TBD.
MSFT and AMZN will be the most important names. MSFT because it is NOT a FAANG, but should be. It is a massive tech company, heavily involved in software still, and also cloud computing and AI, but still not huge with retail investors. Also, for the first time in a while, it seems a overpriced to me. If MSFT goes down, I think that is a tell on what professional investors and fund managers are thinking.
AMZN matters for the opposite reason: it is LOVED by retail/amateur investors even though it has no margins. It is massively overpriced. There is nothing that could be in its earnigns that would justify its price (I’ve run the numbers and even cloud computing doesn’t contribute enough), so the market *reaction* will be MUCH more important than whetehr it hits or misses earnings. AMZN will be a tell on retail investors. I’m sure they’ll be happy, but if more powerfull players start to bring it down, retail traders will have no choice but to bail.
So basically, MSFT will announce after the market tomorrow (after close 10/24), which will be priced in on Thursday (trading 10/25). It’s move will set the market direction until Christmas. Given that AMZN is already massively overpriced, I do not think anything in its earnings report (after close 10/25) will matter at all. Instead, I believe it will merely serve as a confirmation for market direction set by MSFT
I also think that FB and AAPL will also have little effect on the overall market next week. Investor sentiment will already have too much momentum at that point. (GOOG aslo report on 10/25, but AMZN is a pure trade on investor sentiment without ties to financial reality, so it provides a much more important signal).
The bigger picture: The emerging markets are already bleeding to oblivion. Francine Lacqua showed a chart this morning to highlight the overall fuckedness of the market conditions this morning.
AUD, the key proxy of the emerging currencies, is weak and getting weaker. It isn’t crashing like it was August 2008 yet. But we’ll see. We’ll see what happens. Bigly.
Isn’t the AUD more a proxy for commodities than emerging markets in general? Besides, the AUD weakened from 2013 – 2016 which were strong bull markets i nthe US.
I think the emerging markets are following China, which is being (rightfully) hammered by Trump. Ironically, they may have the most to gain as companies move prodution out of CHina and into other emerging economies.
Both commodities and China (and, thus, EM by extension).
The Oz economy has become more and more dependent on the Chinese economy in the last couple of decades. More and more Australians speak Mandarin. Those trends are irreversible.
In other words: I will take 10% position in AMZN pre-earnings based on whatever direction MSFT moves after earnings. If AMZN after earnings moves in the same direction as MSFT (as expected), then I will take a massive position anticipating a move to the Sep ’18 highs or Nov ’17 lows by Thanksgiving.
And if that doesn’t work out, you will know that I am full of sh!t 🙂
“convalescing in the dark as my pride tore through the prairie like a jagged blizzard” – fucking Hemmingway!!
What the fook are you all talking about ? Some deep shit over here.
TXN in the bloody dip, MO and SQ for the win.
Macy’s is good. AMZN , was a buy today or we will get another 10 percent dip come Thursday. Either way, it’s a buy. Pick your day.
Regards
Chuck Bennett
Went back in a few /ES contracts @ 2737. Look forward to adding on lower prints overnight.
Fly you lookin for bloggers?
He (and/or his webmaster) offered me a sub-domain to guest-blog some years back but I was working on my doctorate back then.
I’m not consistently prolific enough a writer to blog. Not for free.
The plung protection teams shot their wad. The junkie circus market is on its own now. I bet it throw up soon.