iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
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Shares of $MNST Soar: US ‘Scanner Data’ Lied and Now Bears Are Dead

Look at $MNST fly, up more than 13% off an earnings crush. Personally, I prefer Monster White can over all other energy beverages. I used to drink them all the time, hopped up on caffeine, punching holes through my wall. But those days are behind me now. I’m a kindler, gentler, more distinguished Fly — who’s only penchant is for large quantities of coffee and a desire to one day barrel towards and fulfill a life long dream of wanton alcoholism. Being of Irish heritage, it is my birthright.

Recent scan data had suggested weak sales trends for Monster. Those reports proved to be bullshit, now a major cause of pain and grief for anyone who shorted ahead of earnings.

Stifel raises their price target to $57 from $55, reiterates Buy. They note that Monster Beverage Corp. reported a meaningful sales and EPS beat in 4Q16 and also provided a solid month of January gross sales update on its earnings call. They believe the result is far better than feared given concerns that decelerating growth in U.S. scanner data indicated weakening end-demand. International legacy sales increased approximately 55% y/y, more than 2x the full-year growth rate, benefiting from accelerating brand awareness and the transition to Coke distribution in the majority of international geographies. Additionally, operating margin expanded 360bps y/y to 39.5% (or about 200bps normalizing for a benefit from lower promotional expenses in 4Q16), reflecting solid leverage on heightened expenses and likely helping to alleviate concerns about Monster’s ability to manage incremental investment. Monster also announced a new $500mm share repurchase authorization given continued strong free cash flow generation.

RBC notes that MNST shares rallied +11% after-hours (bringing the stock into green territory from a year ago) on strong 4Q16 and January ’17 sales growth (relative to expectations). Ahead of the print, investors were downbeat on Monster due to soft scanner data, but as they have written before, they think investors are under-appreciating Monster’s long-term growth opportunity in non-tracked channels and international. Reiterates Outperform, $61 tgt.

Which is your favorite energy soda?

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13 comments

  1. firehorsecaper

    What is the definition of a queer Irishman? “One that likes women more than alcohol”. anonymous

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  2. boyaj

    I, like you, would pound energy drinks to the point I’d be brushing my teeth with it. That was long ago. But Red Bull always messed up my stomach. The Monster Juice were my favorite as I reminisce.

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  3. heckler

    I’ll slam a 5hr energy from time to time

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  4. nemesis

    Irish coffee

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  5. ericbakerbruce

    H2O

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  6. fryguy15

    Adderall with a Mountain Dew Kickstart

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  7. BenCBrainard

    Monster Zero, orange ( tastes like Tang ) and white.

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  8. TaoOfPatrick

    Bulletproof Coffee

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  9. ckmfox

    Before it was discontinued, Rockstar XDurance blue can. 240mg caffeine. Jet fuel. Younger days…

    Now, 16oz coffee before noon. Any later and I’m counting ceiling tiles at 2 AM.

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  10. heaterman

    About 3 pots per day of good Guatemalan coffee from the Philadelphia plantation near Antigua. Medium dark roasted.

    Did you know however that the darker the roast, the less caffeine?

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  11. bennyhill

    Christ, Trump is going to pull off a Wategate in his first 3 months. Wait till the evidence comes out that The Donald knew about all of this.

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