iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,110 Blog Posts

BEHOLD THE BIGGEST RECORD BREAKING RALLY IN 25 YEARS AND WHY I’M SUPER BULLISH

The three top indices have hit record highs for 5 consecutive sessions, making it the best record breaking winning streak in 25 years.

Clearly, the market likes the idea of the nominal tax rate going from 35% to 15%.

Don’t you?

It’s evident markets want less regulations, removing the moat and anticompetitive roadblocks that have been designed to preserve monopolies.

Don’t you?

I find it hard to believe that the market would not prefer to have America’s industrial sector reignite, through America first policies and bilateral trade deals.

Don’t you?

American corporations have over $2t in cash hidden overseas, afraid of the tax man. I think we could all agree that having that money come back to the United States is a good thing.

Agreed?

I think the market is elated to see an end to Obamacare and a government who will pass an infrastructure bill which will improve our standard of living, end the malaise of sub 3% GDP growth — and also provide investment opportunities via fiscal stimulus.

Aren’t you?

All of these things, and so much more, are the tenets behind this rally. They’re the reason why I switched from being bearish to 160% long. While many of these changes appear to be radical, they’re actually quite normal. You’ve been living in a country that penalized success, led by a man who told you to ‘eat your peas’ and ‘pay your fair share’, deriding your entrepreneurial efforts for so long, you’ve forgotten what capitalism can do for both the markets and business.

The notion that 1-2% growth is all that we’re capable of and that we should accept this new normal of mediocrity, in order to cede to an anti competitive, corporate fascist, form of government, is a hateful ideology to most aspirational Americans. The spirit of the best innovators, dreamers, and artistic talents the world has ever known will rise again, like Harambe out from the dense jungles of Africa — once the shackles of imperial corporatism are broken.

When it happens, what side of history and the market will you be on?

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36 comments

  1. ironturd

    Nothin contrarian about this post at all whatsoever.

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    • thorium

      Easy to be contrarian and wrong… trend following works sometimes

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      • Dr. Fly

        The history of the market rewards trend followers far more than contrarians. But it’s much cooler to be edgy.

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        • ironturd

          Nothing against trend following, if it’s not one of your primary strategies you’re not managing long term wealth, you are a ham and egg’er.

          Contrarian indicators like sentiment can be quite useful however (ie Dennis Gartman and oil). CLF, TECK, X and their ilk are all up 500-1000% over 12 months. Prudent to leverage up here? Maybe, the trend certainly is up.

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  2. john_galt

    Since when Markets trade on fundamentals?

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    • Dr. Fly

      Markets trade on expectations, emotions, and facts. Yes it’s true, fundamentals ALWAYS wins in the end. Ask any company that went bankrupt if fundamentals mattered.

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      • john_galt

        The last time fundamentals mattered was in 2008. Since then, it has been a bull run, manipulated by CB and HFT. If fundamentals matters, “It is Showtime” and ZH followers would be all Warren Buffet by now, instead of dead broke losers. What you have scribed above is known by every trader with an above average IQ. The question is: does this info give you an edge against the millions of traders out there? No, because what is known by everybody is not worth knowing. Technical indicators are there to cut the truth from the bullshit. As per the indicators that I follow, this bull move is total BS, which I consider a retail sucker trap. Bull market end up when everybody and their Walmart greeters are euphoric about stocks. This is was the tape and emotions are showing right now. What tells you that Institutionals are currently not offoading their garbage onto you? Do you have a tool that can tell you precisely that? If you read correctly technical indicators, then you’d see what is going on. For your own sake (and those who follow you), stick to Exodus for your trading decisions, and not your emotions as those are the trader’s worst enemies. IMO, the reason why OA excels in reading the market is because he is a very focused MF, and not some emotional freak. Trading is a serious business and requires some serious skills and market studies. That’s why only less that 5% of traders consistently bank coin in the markets. The other 95% are the suckers. Since you are still in the green, why don’t you cash out your proceeds, or part thereof, and enjoy a good dinner with Mrs. Fly? At least you’d have something good to remember from your trade before it goes bust.

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        • alty

          Warren Buffett cuts his losers. Something showtime refuses to do. So no, he wouldn’t be warren Buffett under any scenario.

          And we are a loooong way off from any euphoria amongst retail investors. Trading around that thesis is trading based on an emotion at this point.

          Try to identify how your own emotions and biases of missing out on the current rally are clouding your judgement right now. Don’t worry so much about people making money when you aren’t. You can’t control that.

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        • john_galt

          Who says that I am not making money?
          I said that this is a suckers’ rally and not what you imply.
          Anyway, there is no need to argue more on this at this point, the market will show who is right and who is wrong once OPEX week is over. Let us resume this conversation in a month from now.

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        • infinitezuul

          “which I consider a retail sucker trap”

          That is what everyone thinks, and why the market keeps going up – along with future expectations rooted in fundamentals.

          You just don’t like Trump and want the market to go down. Sad.

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        • john_galt

          No, I voted for Trump with the hope he makes a real change.
          As far as trading is concerned, the majority of bloggers here is the epitome of a retail trading caricature. A bunch of sheep deprived of any analytical skills is what you are. When you are confident that the market can only go up, this is the time that I take profit from my longs and start looking for short trades. When you are scared of the market is when I am not worried about a down move and BTD.

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        • infinitezuul

          You just said in another comment that you draw lines on charts to get an edge. Every ETrade baby on earth does that. That is the foundation of how 90% of people trade these days as a result of Obama’s post-fundamental market. You are the crowd, and the Trump Trade is a return to normalcy… hopefully.

          Agree with what you said on sentiment though. Buy fear sell exuberance. This isn’t exuberance though. Every headline is still some version of “IS THIS THE TOP???”

          Sell when Trump accomplishes Nirvana and not a second sooner.

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        • infinitezuul

          *achieves Nirvana

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        • Dr. Fly

          Too long. I lost interest after the third sentence. Email me the cliff notes.

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      • john_galt

        You are confusing me with someone else Zuul

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        • infinitezuul

          Probably. Must admit I did not read anything you wrote and am pretty much just typing to waste time, as it were.

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  3. natehois

    The Fly is El Jefe, the sole wild jaguar in the US, who eats bears.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Jefe_%28jaguar%29

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  4. airborne

    Yes, things are definitely changing and not just the market rally. I now learn that someone I used to respect pays heed to a dufus who believes 9/11 was staged by our government. When did Le Fly become so delusional as to dial into Alex Jones and chose to believe?

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    • Dr. Fly

      When did I cite Alex Jones as a source? Last I checked, I discussed Dr. Pie.

      I’ll wait.

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    • Dr. Fly

      And even if I did listen to Alex Jones, what difference is it to you? You people need to take the sticks out from your asses and stop watching CNN all the time.

      I consume information on an industrial scale. I’ve always done that, both the old Fly and the new. I am omnipresent and have a keen awareness about almost every topic imaginable.

      Want to talk about rap, jazz, ragtime, minstrel, classical music, U308, wine, watches, stocks, politics, sports, fishing, history, architecture, books, film, tv, furniture, beer, cooking, cars etc? I can do it all.

      I can also talk about Alex Jones if you want to.

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  5. joyous__ending

    It should also be considered that the market has been held back the past SIXTEEN years from:
    Nasdaq bubble crash (always a risk of repeat)
    9/11 and related Greenspan dufus monetary and banking policy
    Obama restrictive policies.

    Market is just catching up, room to run.

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  6. og

    I would not mind if you were right.

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  7. nocturne

    Fly, sir, do you consider GOOGL, FB, AAPL to be under pressure under such a scenario you describe given their monopolistic success under the Obama administration? TY.

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    • peaches

      There is no scenario where the big 3 indexes go up and tech giants suffer.

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      • masteroneass

        I agree. the two dji tech components P/E’s are 15 / 30 Apple / MSFT. Don’t ask me why Apple is worth half of what Microsoft is. I can’t answer that. If MSFT’s price was in line with Apple or vice versa Microsft would be 250 billion and Apple would be 1.4 Trillion. Side note only CAT and CVX are dragging up the historical P/E of the DOW.

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  8. peaches

    Fly you are 160% right. Its just a shame every other minority group has to question whether the president actually hates them or if its yet another conspiracy. Its a shamr certain people dismiss the clear hatred and racism groups of americans have for other americand.

    Its a shame people have to watch betsy devos get a job she is unqualified to do just because she dropped stacks for the winning team.

    None of these things will make America great again.

    The stock market is a financial instrument. It is not a social one or a moral one. If we were really free from the shackles of the corporate devils… the market would crash.

    Freedom means the bitch explodes and burns to the ground…we all lose our jobs and get to farm our cheap land, the koch brothers and soros are boiled alive in the same pot and the chinese and saudi fur coat housewives on park avenue go home to exploit their own people. The ironworkers and electricians get 150% raises and the REIT partners get tossed out the penthouse window.

    But GE and JPM are winning. So we’re losing. There is no way they win and we win.

    Yet… I’m irresponsibly long just like you.

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    • bennyhill

      It may be profitable for us middle-upper and upper class but it will devastate the lower income citizens. The income gap will widen even more, to even more unprecedented levels.

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  9. Dr. Fly

    Most people are ‘unqualified’ to do the jobs they’re given. What’s important is the character of the person and if they can become competent operators.

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  10. peaches

    I hope you get to hear those same words from your doctor’s mouth one day after you ask him why his medical school diploma has our president’s name on it

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  11. zheeeem

    I’ll believe it when I see it.

    I have been irresponsibly long the past few months. Starting to take some off the table.

    Oh, hey, Faeries may dance on our eyelids, and we’ll all get sugarplums. That would be great. But between now and then, many things can happen to bog down expectations. After all, this is government we’re talking about. It’s always best to underestimate government promises.

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  12. masteroneass

    Two words. Dow Theory.

    And yes, if you look at the dow since 12/5 when DJT finally hit that new high the volume has went to 5 times average. Could be rotation into blue chips but not like thats’ a bad sign. One would have to assume trickle down.

    The Dow Jones has a higher market cap then the all but 10 countries on the planet. 30 companies are worth more than essentially 6 billion people. American Ingenuity at it’s finest.

    To put it into perspective Mexican Immigrant marching people – The Dow Jones components are worth 3 times more than your entire country. We should be taking the day off not you. I can make my own fucking sandwich. See you at the border.

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