Clarifying My Position On Stocks, the Blog, Etc.

Since some of you don’t tune in religiously every day to learn about what great things Le Fly has cooking up, I’m detecting a bit of confusion when it comes to my content and market bias.

Plainly, I’ve succumbed to the mental illness that has plagued Tyler over at Zerohedge since the day he was born. I do not like stocks in a box, with a fox and certainly not with a cocks. But my bias is somewhat moot in that I quit the business back in late December. I am not trading my account and do not manage money professionally any longer. If I was managing money, I am sure the content on the blog would be different, as I am a degenerate of the first order and love to bury myself in stocks.

Having said that, I have but one position, TLT, and will hold it until the yield curve inverts. It is up over 9% for the year, or 9x better than your fucking nasdaq, so you can go fuck yourselves in the back of a rancid urinal. Sorry, I don’t know what came over me.

I’m also trading the oversold signals in Exodus, which have proven to be extremely accurate over the years. But this isn’t a sales pitch. This is more of a clarification of where I’m taking the site.

None of which I am posting is purely editorial. I am posting mainly news now, with my spin on things. If the news is overly bearish, that’s because the fucking news is overly bearish. I am not simply making these things up. When Macy’s and Tiffany’s warn of impending disaster, I am not able to say “they were just joking, go ahead and get long the shopping mall.”

If you’re relying upon my blog for investment advice, you’re making a mistake. You’re better served going over to The Option Addict’s or Ragin Cajun’s pages than mine, if it’s specific picks that you crave. “The Fly” is too busy talking shit, on a very grand scale, than to cater to the likes of you–offering up stock advice to a class of reader that is simply unbelievably dense.

Along those lines, however, I do manage a GARP index in Exodus, which I update twice per annum, and that’s up 0.7% for the year. Give me a medal.

In summary, I want the world to end because it’d be fun and interesting. Plus, I have a mental ailment, apparently. Also, I’m not managing money. Instead, I am blogging, walking around my house in my robe all day, talking extreme shit and having fun on the internets.

Why did I quit managing money? I was doing it since 1997 and it was starting to make me crazy. Most of the time I was miserable and I got burned out, in spite of all of the money it produced for me. I wouldn’t wish that job on my worst enemy.

Makes sense?

Can we put this to bed already and quit day dreaming about the Fed suddenly admitting that all of the threats they’ve been making to hike rates was all a joke?

The economic data isn’t going to get worse over the next month. As a matter of fact, it might get better. The Fed is going to tighten credit. How that will affect stocks is anyone’s guess.

Thus far, I’ve seen nothing but ostriches with their heads in the sand, when it comes to broaching this topic. Everyone saw the December rate hike coming and no one really prepared for it. The result was catastrophe over a period of 2 months. Will we get a repeat of that, or will the market rejoice–thinking the Fed is ‘one and done’?

He’s gonna make America great again and Mexico is gonna pay.

Since we do not live in a dictatorship, President Trump isn’t likely to get the majority of his ideas past the catamites in Congress, who are wholly corrupt and bedraggled. However, there are some bankable plays that will be forced upon them, whether they like it or not.

The number one theme in a President Trump America is protectionism of U.S.industries, which means doom for multi-national, global, plays like KO, PG and ITW. The days of using foreign slave factories to produce cheap as shit goods that break upon initial usage might be coming to an end. Companies like TGT, WMT and other large retailers might suffer, as trade with China becomes ‘difficult.’

But, domestic companies that are being strangled by unfair Chinese practices will flourish. Since Trump is a construction man, it makes sense to get long X, AA and core infrastructure plays like LNN, VMI, CLF, and MLM.

Also, the carnage in coal might be undone, paving the way for big recoveries in CNX, WLB, GBX and a sundry of ancillary plays. Or, you can just buy KOL.

The rails might suffer, in spite of a possible resurgence in coal. Trump wants the keystone pipeline and isn’t afraid to introduce 1930’s technology today, over Victorian era rail transport.

If you recall when Romney was up in the polls, the single best plays were coal. As the Presidential elections near, expect some of the above names to really gain some traction. Think big American infrastructure, energy independence, and an unwind of the EPA. This means many filtration plays, who’ve thrived under Obama, might suffer. Additionally, we’ll need lots of concrete for the massive wall that is going to be built– EXP, KWR, MLM and USCR are choice wall plays for border loving investors.

One side addendum: Yellen will be fired as soon as Trump gets in. He’s a low interest rate guy. Expect credit to flourish; but banks to get squeezed.

Investing isn’t about ideologies and politics. You can hate Trump and still game the system to your benefit. That’s your job, so get to work.

These are just a few ideas. I’ll have more as the elections near and if I ever decide to start investing again.

We’ve had a terrific rally over the past three months. In the ETF world of endless structures, there are seemingly endless ways to skin a cat. In Exodus, we quarantine the ETFs and have them organized nicely for easy navigation. Before I get into my favorite (no, it’s not TLT), here are the best performers over the past 3 months.

Right in the middle of that list is an ETF dubbed ‘XIV’. It’s, essentially, a money printing business, in that it short volatility. In a world of command economics, endless bailouts and fear of decline, nothing imbues the character of the market better than XIV. It is a bet against free markets. Being long XIV will ensure that you’re aligned with the global tzars who manage economic prosperity for all of the field workers below.

Over the past 3 months, it’s up 62%, as volatility was suppressed and crushed into pieces. But over the past 12 months, it’s actually down by 32%, perhaps a sublime opportunity to partake in the splendor of global authoritative hegemony.

On the other hand, should free markets ever get released from its prison, shares of XIV will likely dissipate into nothing at all.

BUYERS BEWARE!!!

I don’t know why I like this guy. There are a handful of people who talk about stocks on the teevee, who I happen to like. One being Bob Parker from Credit Suisse and another being Mario Gabelli, long time Boss Hog of the investment world.

Mario is super sharp and a great investor. This short clip is definitely worth your time. Amongst the media stocks that Mario likes, he’s also getting into homebuilders and defense stocks, which I find to be interesting.

What an early morning shocker. Is anyone else as surprised as I am that Zoomlion didn’t get to finalize their bid for TEX. When I awoken from my slumber, I nearly soiled myself when I read the news, an absolute shocker.

Clowns who were long TEX off the fictitious Zoomlion bid are being disassembled this morning, in truly heinous fashion.

Shares are off by 20% on the utter disappointment.

Here’s a very brief rundown of some of the after-hours action.

Solid earnings:

VEEV +8.5%, ULTA +8.3%

Not solid earnings:

PANW -10%, GME -7.5%, SPLK -5.3%, DECK -2.5%

PANW is a bit of a surprise, being one of the few silicon valley companies able to deliver strong earnings for a long time. This set back, along with SPLK, will injure many tech names tomorrow.

The Wall Street Journal is out with a report, suggesting that The Lending Club aka internet hoax gone bad, is in talks with Citi to get financing or some other type of tie up, in order to reassure investors.

That’s funny, since I have an article on my desk, dated May the 20th, 2016, that explicitly says the opposite.

Citigroup told US regulators last week it was not willing to support troubled marketplace lender Lending Club after its CEO stepped down following a botched sale of loans.

In a May 12 memo seen by IFR, Citigroup said it had declined a request from Jefferies, an investment bank, to back Lending Club after CEO Renaud Laplanche resigned three days earlier.

“Jefferies has requested that Citi be supportive of Lending Club in order to calm the markets,” said the memo, which further said the bank was temporarily freezing exposure to online lenders.

“While Citi believes that overall due diligence and lending quality of Lending Club is good, it is … investigating the situation and is not yet prepared to do this,” it said.

It was not specifically clear from the memo, which recorded the minutes of a call with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a US banking regulator, what kind of support Jefferies was seeking from Citigroup.

According to the memo, Citigroup told the OCC that it believed Lending Club “has sufficient liquidity to carry it through the next few weeks”.

Calls and voicemail left by IFR for the Citigroup bankers were not answered. The OCC declined to comment on behalf of the OCC staff. Citigroup, Jefferies and the OCC declined to comment on the content of the memo. The SEC also declined to comment.

In a statement to IFR, acting Lending Club CEO Scott Sanborn said the company was in a “strong financial position” with US$900m in cash and a US$120m line of credit.

“Our platform continues to operate with existing investors and more returning each day,” he said.

Parlour tricks. Smoke with mirrors. Beware of the Wall Street funhouse.

Shares of LC are down 76% over the past 12 months, yet another VC lauded fail.

Yeah, they also rejected my bid for $00.00 too– but didn’t hear them leaking that to the press. This is blatant propaganda by new CEO, Mr. Potato Head, in order to try to gain buoyancy for his pathetic shares. Bear in mind, VRX is a broken company with the fucking wheels clean off the vehicle. With $30 billion in debt, VRX desperately needs access to the credit markets and equity.

Aside from rejecting the crazy Japanese from buying their sinkhole, they also told the $70 billion investment firm, TPG, to fuck off. I suppose they’re more interested in barreling towards bankruptcy in a giant ball of flames, instead of whimpering out with some mercy, Wall Street 2, takeover bid.

A nice secondary at $50 wouldn’t kill anyone.

TPG, whose main offices are in San Francisco and Fort Worth, Texas, has more than $70 billion under management and has invested in all sectors of health care, including hospitals, biotechnology firms and insurers. Valeant shares rose 6.3 percent to $28.64 in late trading. Takeda shares rose as much as 1.4 percent as of 10:08 a.m. in Tokyo.

Spokesmen for Valeant and TPG declined to comment. Representatives for Takeda didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment

Sigh.

They just devalued their currency to the lowest level in 5 years.

Their markets have been quietly sucking immense human sausage, undergoing the worst 4 week sell off since 2012. The fraudulent heavy Shanghai composite of down 4% this month and 20% for the year–making it the single worst performing stock market amongst the 93 indexed by Bloomberg.

Over the past 12 months, China is down 43%.

Back in January, the market threw a fit when China devalued its currency. Now the market views this as something of a good things. Truly bizaare.

Rally on.