This is the stupidest shit of all time. How many faux rate hikes do we need to endure before people finally realize the Fed cannot hike? I’ll play along. Don’t worry.
Yesterday’s housing numbers were so terrific, investors are anticipating a rate hike, especially ahead of Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole–later this week. Futures are mildly higher, so there’s no immediate risk to equities. After all, the economy is great. However, the specter of higher rates has people curiously selling off commodities, en masse.
Also curiously, that same tentativeness is not being found in the bond market safe havens–with TLT still straddling record high territories at $140. It’s worth noting, there haven’t been any meaningful pullbacks in either the utility or REIT sectors–making the sell off in commodities all the more beguiling!
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With the Macy’s announcement and the market rising to new ATHs each week you would think SPG, GGP, and VNQ would be getting absolutely crushed but really they haven’t been. Commodities getting annihilated and the price of stocks, bonds, and everything else going to the moon is the new inflation.
I do think that miners might start running up again soon once everyone realizes Janet is shooting blanks (again).
We’ve said it before, but the Dollar/Yen currency cross is my current guide in this market.. Gives an idea about currency strength (dollar anticipation to potential hike) and risk on vs risk off with carry trade.
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Some PM Miners charts look like they might be forming a multi year cup and handle pattern. EXK and HL in particular. Or perhaps I’m just throwing my dick in the Guillotine circle for its turn at a chopping.