“The Fly” is about to set sail on his ark, victorious, a champion amongst champions–destroyer of nations. The giraffes have been annoying the shit out of me, running up and down the decks, trying to eat coconuts. In case some of you are trying to board, please don’t bother. There isn’t any room left, not even near the cobras. There isn’t any WIFI on the ark yet, so blogging might be scarce–even on this momentous day. It’s just a minor inconvenience, all things considered–so I might not be in touch with many of you until our IT department can find a remedy.
The FTSE MIB (Italy) is getting MIB’d today, off by 10.3%. Already, there are politicians in France and Italy calling for referendums to exit the EU. Did I mention Greece was down 17% and Spain off by 13%? Yeah, there’s that too.
Things have moderated a bit from last night’s extreme levels. The US 2yr had gone down to 0.50%, now at 0.59%. But there is an undeniable flight into ark-like vehicles. It’s also worth noting the massive divergence between German-PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) bonds. On one end, yields are plunging, with the German 10 yr down to -0.10%. On the other, yields are blowing out. The assumption is, now that the UK is opting out, others will follow. The PIGS need to be culled and they will, all in good time.
In spite of the fact that this UK exit from the EU will take 2 years to happen, it’s imperative that you understand this is a very fluid situation. Others might choose to leave too. The very fabric of the EU and the ECB is at stake, so expect volatility.
Now here in the states, we have a proclivity to buy anything, ordinary spendthrifts always in search of a bargain. I am certain there are thousands of you reading this, pondering about buying today’s dip. This is an undeniably lunatic idea, ahead of the weekend, which might prove to be politically toxic for EU member states. I expect to see effort on behalf of the bulls, wearisome behavior, and then collapse. In that order.
It’s worth noting, Exodus was timely in its recommendation to purchase inverse ETFs.
I am positioned sublimely, long TLT, GLD, AUY, AU and NEM, and 50% cash. Allocations will be made into the market upon seeing actionable oversold signals.
Okay, laddies, Le Fly has to set sail now. The storm is here and the winds are brisk. Happy swimming.
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Mr. Churchill would say this is the “end of the beginning”.
Cameron gone….BoE Camery should be next. Draghi is loosing his EU. Kuroda is sooooo going to be out soon. The Central Banker Reign is Over.
I hope Larry the Cat makes out OK.
I need a ticket for one week?
you won a 50/50 bet.
fly’s position is not based on brexit. he current positions in TLT and PM’s are broader and longerterm than brexit.
So you think TLT and gold would be down 5% if the UK had stayed? No. This was one of the easiest trades of the year – load up on gold and TLT in case they brexit. If they don’t, you could get out at break even or maybe a small loss.
fly entered tlt months ago and gold when it as 1250. He already had cushion and I doubt fly would gamble on brexit.
I agree with you that the downside risk was higher than upside risk but to say break even or small loss is assuming way too much.
volatility of volatility in play. ride em cowboy!
lol
No hurry to cover my significant (for my piker ass) $IWM short.
RUT is a longterm short based on weekly and monthly chart. lower lows is the trend.
Looks very sunny and calm where I now sit on the beach at Captiva Island Florida.
I’ll watch for the Ark out on the horizon.
srty outperforming tza. fuck, drex sucks
man, tim knight the supposed uber bear. was out the market in jan 1st and he reduced his short to 40% this time. I am starting to think he is the gartman of bears. yikes.
picked up some tvix lotto tickets 2.80. for a possible hold to Monday.
tvix working 3.05 now.
3.15 now.
3.30 probably the high.
The Ark does not need oil.
I see the Ark!!!!
Oops!
It’s only a pasty white tourist from Nebraska floating on his (not sure- could be a transgender) back.
Epic.
Massive panic over reaction. Things calming down. The arc might be taking on water by end of day.
yesterday’s idiots are today’s geniuses. If a 3-percent drop is the best the Apocalypse can over, I’m going back to sleep.
timber time. neg divergence in 5min chart.
It’s not too late to join the Ramp Camp
oh yes it is. time to short the rip.
I agree. Not too late to join the Ramp Camp. But maybe a bit too soon. Maybe next week will be the buying opportunity.
Congrats to the Brits. This here is a bump in the road. The Brits will be better off for having left the EU. And so will the EU and the U.S.– and the stock market, in time.
I am thinkin margin call monday!
I am Back. Love this. May I have my SPX 1755ish now?
Wish you would have stayed away, now we will get a face-ripping rally.
Go ahead and try.
fuel for the fire. come on in bulls, we need fresh meat.
If the Bulls can’t pull out their “Daily After Europe Close Rally Attempt” they are dead. Yes, G7 on Sunday is coming, but central bankers power is gone!
yellen said market was too high before brexit. japan and eu neg rate is back firing. china just printed $1T in q1. also note the last two times down to 1800. CB’s only reacted when it got to 1800. So I think there efforts will be limited to daily crash moves rather than a sustained monetary expansion. will see.
Yes Roundwego, Draghi, Kuroda, PBOC went “All IN” in Feb when SPX was 1800 and gave us this stupid rally. Oh and Yellen helped with “Dove Talk” at that point. But now we got a BEAR DREAM come true. The writing is on the wall that Central Bankers can’t save the day. Draghi can’t act if everyone leaves the EU…France, Spain, Denmark, etc all buzzing about it. Kuroda has been beaten up by the Diet so bad that his political career is ticking away. Carney should be gone now that Cameron is leaving. Yellen won’t go Neg rates, as you pointed out, hasn’t worked. All Central Bankers are in Check Mate.No way to save this mess. Japan and the Yen is the ugliest story. China gets killed by strong Yen…PBOC has cut M2 money to shadow banks so hard, they can’t print out of this.
nymph I hope your not a fat dude, cus that kind of talk is sexy.
Nope. I posted my real pic once and Jack G. said I looked like bjork, that is why I picked the White Swan Dress ala Black Swan. I still don’t see it, I have been told I look like Janet Leeves..that one I think is alot closer.
huh? Those two have totally different vibe from what i see.. Janet seams Nancy Botwin MILFy and Bjork is tortured pixie goddess that you want to spank then worship.
mash up.
You been talking this shit since 2010 or so. Now I finally get short you wanna cock block my shit.
Hat tip to you good sir
Letting the dust settle.
Have you adjusted your GARP long term portfolio?
The velociraptors are hungry and they are eying the bunnies
Thank Odin the UK left, hopefully Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Finland, The Netherlands and Ireland leave too. The Mediterranean states are full of lazy, weak slobs.
I doubt they would leave, at least not right away. They’d have to be prepared for another stock market swoon, with the worst declines going to the leaving country. That’s most of the reason for this decline– to scare other countries off from leaving the EU.
Like Britain, those countries might be better off if they did leave.
The Mediterranean states are not full of lazy, weak slobs. They just incompatible in the way they do their economies, with the other countries you mentioned. Right now the Mediterranean states are full of poor people being forced into extreme austerity for the benefit of banks. They would be better off leaving also.
The EU is a group where it’s quite possible that EVERYBODY in it would be better off in the long run by getting out of it. It’s like a marriage where the incompatible spouses are tormenting each other and the children– except that there are 27 different parties to the arrangement.
Everyone would be better off in the long run, if a divorce occurred. Then, if countries that are actually compatible want to form some kind of organization, they could do that.
You should plan a summer vacation to the Ark Encounter Amusement Park.
https://arkencounter.com
love this quote ” when the vix goes up they have to buy” I love quants.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-24/derivative-strategist-warns-150-billion-quant-selling-next-three-days
Wifi is spotty on the ark. I’ve been busy all day trying to stop the lions from eating the antelopes.
It’s the jackalopes that need watching.
Liquidity risk in the short term—and a potential flash crash. Long term risk is a breakup of the EU and banks like DB become insolvent and illiquid. Lehman-style. William Wallace says to you shorts and hedgers…HOLD!!….HOLD!!…HOLD!!!!
If the men in Brussels had any brains and backbone, they will seek retribution on the UK and seek to fucking crush it—for the simple reason of sending a message that dissenters will not be tolerated. Short term pain for the UK, but probably long term gain down the road.
You don’t fuck with the empire. The empire fucks with you.
Bushwacker2,, Brussels is sending that message by this decline. Most people do not choose to endure short term pain, even when long term gain will be the result. So it is unlikely that other EU countries will leave any time soon– because they don’t want their stock markets, currencies etc. to take this much of a dive, even temporarily.
It is hard for people to look beyond the short term, especially as there are no guarantees that the UK will be better off in the long run. But I agree with you that they will.
I actually bought a small token position in BCS @$8.65 in celebration of the freedom-loving Britons vote.