This is some serious ostrich head in sand reporting from Citi. I’m reading the same narrative everywhere. Big banks wistfully declaring England will remain in the EU, while totally and completely ignoring all of the polling data that suggests they’ll leave.
Citi said a simple average of the past 10 opinion polls showed a 2.7 percentage point lead for “Leave”. This fell to 0.2 percentage points after Citi adjusted the figures to even out the number of telephone and online polls, and reduce the effect of different polling companies’ methodologies.
“Flirtation with political alternatives is often followed by ‘snapback’ to the status quo. We expect this bias for the status quo to help tilt the outcome in favor of ‘Remain,'” Citi said.
“Recent events in the UK have led to suspension of campaigning, and some increased uncertainty. Overall, we continue to put the risk of Brexit at the top of the 30-40 percent range.”
So 10 different polls say England will leave and Citi concludes there’s only a 30-40% chance it will happen? Jesus Christ, no wonder their analysts stink. They’re unable to connect two dots, add 1+1, urinate while standing up.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Who the fuck knows with brexit. But defaults are not just going to go way, no matter what happens with brexit. The velocity of money is dying.
Finally, Citi analysts make a decent call. Too bad they can’t do this with money.
Do you really think the elites will allow a ‘yes’ vote to win? Look what had happened in other EU countries, they just have another vote in 6 months till they get the outcome the elite pro Brussels crowd wants. They will of the people is meaningless to these clowns.
Today I saw an article stating that the referndum was actaully non-binding. If that is true, then the referndum is really just another poll, albeit one with more accuracy.