iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,445 Blog Posts

MARKET ROARS IN NONSENSICAL RALLY

Yesterday the market hated Draghi and the Fed; today the market loves them. The market allegedly rallied off good jobs numbers today, numbers that are sure to provide the Fed with the excuse they need to raise rates, something stocks have responded adversely to for the past 5 years. As sure as I’m sitting here, come Monday, everyone gets fucked. We remain in a trendless sea of shit, with just one oar to fight against the coriolis forces of the toilet bowl we find ourselves in.

I was stymied by SHAK and PAH today, placing me in the bottom quartile of all long investors in N. America, up just 0.95%. I had a few redeeming stocks today, namely CNC, AAPL, PANW, COST and JAZZ. But, for the most part, my day was uneventful.

Two thousand and fifteen is nearly done and I’ve made 15%, in a tape that can only be described as a “sordid affair of fuckery intermingled with the nefarious ongoings of asshats.”

Talking with clients all day, I can tell you that formulating a strategy for 2016 is hard. On one hand, commodity and retail stocks offer “potential” upside reversals, merely tradable events. On the other are solid companies, like PANW, SBUX and others trading at crazy premiums.

Do you chase the performance and buy the free cash flow, or do you buy what’s being thrown away here, heading into 2016?

Had you done the latter in 2014, you made a mint in the opening month’s of 2015. Either way, this is a hard tape to gauge and I’m gonna play it slow.

In addition to that, I’m working on my GARP stocks in Exodus, a portfolio of 15 stocks that I manage twice per year. The first half picks gained almost 15%. During the second half, my picks underperformed–putting 2015 at almost a wash. The index started the year at $132, got as high as $157, and now trades at $132. I’ll make a greater effort in 2016.

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22 comments

  1. moonshot

    Link to the lumber feast periscope?

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  2. Marc David

    What I like (love) about Exodus is that it totally takes out emotion when it comes to trades. You just buy/sell based on scores. The market has been nothing but algo trading since 09. Maybe before but I paid no attention.

    Watch Jeff’s video about ignoring the headlines and you have the perfect tool and mentality to take advance of the market.

    There has been a disconnect for a long time. It’s run by bots anyway. Making Exodus even more important than at any other time. You’ve created the best financial tool available. Period.

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  3. og

    From biggest daily drop in 2 months to biggest daily gain in 3 months. Defintely a WTF market.

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    • it is showtime

      Easily centralbank programmed (shadow central bank). Regret will come from that surrendered control if it is switched to something not agreeable, by those who do possess it. And yes a black swan pre election 2016, is possible

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      • bionut

        How is that short you got bumped out of..then put back on yesterday, pal? ha ha ha

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      • bionut

        I don’t want to put too fine a point on it. but you did just eat your own dick.. ba bye

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      • bionut

        and yes, you will continue to take it up the ass… because you are a broke dick troll. You have never posted a position long or short, hey are you DICK CHENEY? low life pillager..

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      • bionut

        Maybe you were conceived by a Black Swan? Puss filled troll.

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      • it is showtime

        I believe part of the churning is designed to coerce shorts to add into subsequent bounce, and remove them or sideline on gap step or straight line intraday. (those dazzling continuously up days)

        so im not tricked or to be tricked is the point. and friday =
        wednesday + thursday
        so im fine

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      • it is showtime

        Nice tie

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  4. dragun

    I hope you’re not chewing on any Brazilian walnut .. no homo

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  5. Quality Control Inferno
    Quality Control Inferno

    PPT is alive and well. If anyone thinks the market is going to crash into the first rate hike in eons, well that’s just foolish. The FED will not let it happen for they have too much at stake. Might we selloff hard in the months following? Sure. The FED learned their lessons from August, i.e., don’t let the market go into freefall before FED day.

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  6. teslawasright

    How is Amazon not going to dominate again?

    They are the old Hanseatic League hidden in plain sight, extra fruit on the bottom

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  7. frog

    I don’t know how Fly & other people can stand it, to be trying to make your living off of this insane market. Must be stressful.

    I am amazed at your integrity, Fly, at admitting that GARP has been a wash so far this year. Almost everyone else on the Internets just brags about their wins, and pretends never to have losses, and never to have anything that comes out a wash. You stand out from the other people on the Internets for sure.

    For all we know, GARP could possibly be back up again by the end of the year. One never knows what this crazy market will do.

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  8. bionut

    Hi, let me introduce myself, I post as “Showtime” i am here everyday. No matter markets up or down, I post sputum. I am on an endless bummer. I have no money, I make no money. MY only mission each and every day is to post shit on IBANKCOIN> see, I am not smart enough or rich enough to have my own website. I am a pitiful lowlife scab who trolls IBANKCOIN each and everyday to sling feces on the readers herein. I have no other purpose in life. Please, kill me, before I harm your investment ideas again.

    Putridly yours

    Showtime

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    • it is showtime

      I represent the other side of the trade. That’s all. Simple as that.

      You seem to represent bitter impetuous swampy vagrants. Good.
      Everyone needs a voice

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  9. Dr. Fly

    Geez guys, it’s Xmas season. Chill.

    Hahaha

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  10. frog

    Yes, Merry Xmas to all. Or whatever you have, Hannekah or Winter Solstice or whatever.

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    • moosh

      Where I work, this is indeed a holiday time to go full fledge eat every piece of garbage that is within eyesight, happy season. Then, they somehow gain 20 lbs and go on to get the flu.

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