I’m having a difficult time finding new ideas. I’ve been looking at CERS, possibly adding to HDP or N; but nothing is jumping out at me. I am somewhat hamstrung by two things: extreme valuations in many of the drug stocks coupled with poor seasonality. I’d like to buy a few restaurant names. However, I bet they will be dead money for the next few months or so.
The last thing I want to do is toss good money into a dead stock and watch it whither way with the sands of time.
I want to make money and I want it fucking now. I am not here, per se, to entertain the likes of you, purblind wastrels interested in only the most perverted of perversions. No, “The Fly” is here to achieve greatness, the sort of greatness that has his brand new GARP index up 1.75% for the day.
I am barely up today, just 0.25% to the good. When I underperform in such a grotesque manner, I get jittery and then I make changes, in order to better conform with civil society. “The Fly” is all about conforming, blending in if you will, in a way that places me at a standard for others to strive for.
I haven’t placed a single trade today and I will likely spend the remainder of my day throwing things about the office, frustrated for not being able to act. Nevertheless, the market is still accommodative and I will continue to search.
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all I did today was install some stops in the likes of SINA and FEYE…………need new ideas
What are your thoughts on the coming OPEC meeting? Should all energy sectors (rail refining, servicers, and of course E&Ps) that oil impacts be prepared for the worst and have tight stop losses on longs? Appreciate the response ahead of time.
Oil is a short
You are supposed to find those hot new deals for us!
If oil is a short, then AAL? Up 4% for the day . . .
Housing. This will be the summer of the housing stock. Already in $BZH leaps and $HOV common for a long term hold, but going to start shopping for 1-2 more names to add
It’s time to revisit the SAVE trade.
Look to short the entire fucking ag sector and in size. Your research should lead you to the same conclusion as mine. There is serious money to be made when consensus is wrong, and I will assume you will know how to best position yourself. Think 2008-2009 but for farmersonly.com. This will be a worse income drop than 2006 and 2008 and will last for years. The bubble popped but DE just kissed new highs. Notice a discrepancy? Remember early 2008 when you (thefly) were shorting stocks and they went on to rebound heavily after you being up big on your said shorts? Well I think this is the same thing but 7 years later.
Follow the liquidity; you always have so this is nothing new to you. Banks are shutting off credit to many farmers. 4% of farms (think huge farms) own 68% of the debt. That debt is backed by land and machinery, which both happened to be in a bubble. Like I said the bubble has popped and liquidity is finally changing. I don’t even need the fed to raise interest rates, but it would obviously help the trade along with the strong US Dollar. My conviction levels are the highest I go, 95% probability that within 3 years this will all go bust. 90% probability that this will go bust within 2 years. 75% probability that this house of cards will collapse within a year. I am talking DE possibly down 80% at the worst of it, just like oil stocks when the saudi’s decided not to be the swing producers.
I don’t have much time due to me working on a fucking farm (irony perhaps) in bumfuck nowhere, but if you want trade ideas (and a half ass hedge) look to shorting the entire ag sector. There are a couple half ass index funds but the real money will be made in specific stocks. (Think Lehman and BS.) Land, machinery, machinery dealers, irrigation, ect for targeted shorts. There is my one alpha idea and has the benefit of acting as hedge because “this market sucks.” This is the best long term hedges I know of, but over the short term it is a shitty hedge with a lower correlation to the Spy. Over the long term however, it will act as a fine hedge I believe (month to month.) Who cares about the added vol, it is alpha everyone seeks and in the end shorting the ag sector should add to alpha, not beta (again over the long term.) Good luck.