Historically oil has traded anywhere between $10-$40 per barrel, with $40 being crisis levels. A quick fact for you ham and eggers out there: a gas guzzling truck, parked and turned off, is worse for the environment than a modern day vehicle going 60MPH on the highway. This just goes to show you how utterly stupid we were twenty years ago. Modern day engineers are advancing civilization faster than anyone ever dreamt of in the past, even Orwell.
So now we have the conundrum of lower oil prices, what to do with them, and the ramifications. A little side note for you: Texas homebuilding is in the gutters now, expected to decline by 20% in 2015, as all of those homos in big hats enter receivership. Let’s not forget that 18% of all junk bonds are energy related. There is going fire and brimstone inside of the fixed equity portfolios, sometime during 2015. Now the question is, where the fuck is oil going?
Some Iranian asshat suggested that oil could trade down to $25, without OPEC stepping in to save the day (extra Tom Greene). If he would’ve said that three months ago, you’d probably laugh at him and chalk him up to being a palaver. But now with oil in the $40’s, we are paying attention, aren’t we?
My worst case scenario for oil is pre-Iraq war levels. On the day the war started oil was trading at $28 per barrel. Now that peace reigns throughout the middled east and the charitable organization ISIS is at the helm, one should surmise that the “normalized” level for oil to be $25-$30 barrel.
Why the fuck not?
When that happens, General Vladimir Putin will fire nuclear missiles at the oil derricks in Saudi Arabia and Iran will simply melt away, like a snowman in July. Venezuelans will starve on an industrial scale and the American consumer will gain a collective 5 million pounds, from all of the additional fast food they will be ingesting, thanks to the cost savings.
We’ve been in a meat-grinder since November. Nothing has worked, aside from gold, airlines and biotech. However, it’s worth noting that my recent foray into micro-cap biotech has resulted in apocalypse: NDRM. Some people inside of The PPT proposed the idea that I’ve offended some black-hearted billionaire and that I should offer “general apologies” in order to receive mercy. Well, I will have you know, “The Fly” apologizes to no one, and will gnaw off said billionaire boot, drag his torso into my parlour and toss his limp body into my fireplace. After that, the kids will gather ’round and stare into the hot flames, as Father Fly tells tales of victory and redemption, of the biblical nature.
Chop, chop, chop.
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Quality post, sir.
Dr. Fly – I’m sure it won’t surprise you that I drove a truck from 1991 to 2001 (purchased from my cotton farmer grandpa for $600). I only sold it at the request of my father. He was settling my grandparents estate and wanted me to purchase their mini van. I finally tired of the Aerostar after 12 years and purchased a brand new Honda in 2013. See how I have evolved?? Surely I owe this all to you & iBC!!
Owning things (stocks, land) is bad during deflationary spirals.
Lending your money (bonds, bank accounts) is good.
I now drive my tractor to work because I can.
Do it like Marvin… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlZh9-NQEyI
hilarious
46 is the level in CL_F
The level for it to drop to 42. #timestamp.
I will keep my oil hedge(s)
because
Something (?) geopolitical
is most likely
In the (near?) future as a
result
of this price suppression
Absolute agreement with this, -it is showtime- ..
Great post Fly
Maybe a joke would lighten the mood.
A Russian oil trader walk into bar. Is not drinking bar, is metal bar.
Man is injured severely, also family is starve. Such is life.
Nothing has “worked” since the top in 99 but housing and now oil. Cheap oil is poison to this country and the financial markets. There is no West to populate(cough on native) there is no Europe to rebuild(50’s) there are no fucking jobs(China). What the fuck is America supposed to be Cuba? A bunch of highly educated peasants dreaming of a job in ?!?!?
A mightily constructed summary
my followup would be: we’ve just gone from bubble to bubble since 99, ATTEMPTING to think no prob
Tech 99, Housing 08, Bonds/Oil/Keynes 09-?
yep
i think that’s become the general idea, not through conscious conspiracy, but through the results of ineptitude on a monumental scale
You used ‘fuck’ again… Amen…
Oil will find a bottom one day but my guess it is still far away.
%2B1
Mr Fly. Can I get your opinion on BALT. It had huge volume today.
Chart looks wrong to me…oil cost $2 per bbl in 1970??
$3.18 per bbl in 1970,
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/f000000__3a.htm
4.5 out of/5 stars
APPLAUSE
Senior.
POTUS didn’t cook any eggs and bacon tonight. Why?
Also.
How can we get carbon taxes when oil is so cheap?
Finally.
How is there global climate warming change when “after 14 years… of cooling” POTUS?
Thanks.
And.
Thank you for your recent V.King offer. It would have been nice to see Cement Giant too?
Long short the EUR/CHF.
Monaco, Le Baron Barbarian seeks to accede your $WYNNing Casino-ship.
That chart is comical. What in the hell caused such an erection in prices? Last I checked US “SUV’s” these days are akin to Power Wheels and the rest of the world still pushing around the family in rickshaws
Oil bottoms in January. But we have cheap oil for two years. Just enough money drop for the Fed to raise rates.
Does anyone realize how idiotic this is? Oil getting cheaper is GOOD. It lowers input costs for industries; it helps the average American TREMENDOUSLY to heat their home, drive their car etc; it harms Americas enemies, it is like a tax cut for the middle class. Someone want to explain how this is NOT a boon for the economy? Oil & gas is only ONE sector of the economy…
Keep believing that narrative.
you’re joking right? no tell me you’re joking
Back in the day, I contributed a few things to the Peanut Gallery. I see that is no more–too bad. Anyway, here’s a post on the gold-oil relationship for the benefit of Dr. Fly and his devoted readers: http://pictorial-guide-to-energy.blogspot.com/2015/01/gold-oil-ratio-at-extreme-level.html
Add in some inflation since 2003 and I’d call it $45.00 a barrel.
Fun chart of oil prices, cutely annotated with various events theoretically moving oil higher or lower. I suggest erasing all of them and put one single point in there: Bush 2 is elected president.