When taking defensive positions, we tend to believe that somehow the market is watching us, waiting for us to capitulate and close out the bearish/defensive positions so that the market can really head lower–in earnest.
The market isn’t watching you, idiot, and there is nothing wrong with taking a stand–like a man.
September is, by far, the worst performing month for the market. There are several geo-political events that could harangue investors, leading to a small rout. Remember, the largest IPO in the history of man, Alibaba, is being priced this month and it would be very timely for the market to pause after our banker friends make a mint in the underwriting.
I am betting on a risk off environment and a race for yield, which should buoy bonds and dividend paying stocks, like utilities.
That’s it. Plain and simple. I have nothing else to say to you people, so go away now.
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Eh. Investors have finally figured out there’s no difference between “yield” and “total return.” The paradigm has been readjusted. Big up month for stocks, risk on.
“I am betting on a risk off environment and a race for yield, which should buoy bonds and dividend paying stocks, like utilities.”
I own this stock in huge quantities. Syd: ASX. Fuck diversification. It’s an airport stock.
Out of divs alone, it’s keeping me in alligator slippers, smoking jacket and the odd Cuban.
J
When are you coming to nyc?
How does the odd Cuban feel about this?
Telco will outperform this MONTH.
LONG T AND VZ
This is probably ban worthy… but I’m sorry that’s pure BS that you’ve gone from -37% to -13% recently. Based on your publicly announced holdings it is impossible – Plain and Simple. I suggest you post some rough portfolio weightings on your picks if you are going to make that kind of claim – clearly you track your performance so why not back up your claim to at least some degree?! Frankly, I don’t really care, but I can’t stand lairs. I’ve been on the right side of countless names in size and I’m only up 12% YTD and I wasn’t down earlier in the year.
Agree, he only had a few +10% winners(EXAS, YELP, JAZZ, XIN, QIHU,ZPIN) and 25% of his assets are in TLT since the beginning of August. Also don’t forget the blowups in RUBI and ANGI.
And I won’t ban you for voicing an opinion, since you’ve always been polite in the past. All I can tell you is that my deepest losses were fleeting and I have been between -17 to -23% since June. Over the month of August, I made back some more and stand at -13%.
Why does blackalgo hate the dens of wild animals?
I enjoy the commentary don’t get me wrong. But I dislike bullshit. Just and FYI – when you capitulate down 37% it takes a +38% return (!!) from that level to get back to -13%. Think about that for a moment. Goodnight and happy trading tomorrow. Futures are green.
I had a lot of respect for Fly when he was down 37% that takes balls to talk about that on here. Again Fly, just show us some numbers. I am happy to eat my words if I am wrong.
I also had a lot of respect for him, but now I really doubt that he is managing money. In the real investment world clients would lynch a PM that is underperforming the S&P by 40%.
He’s certainly named off enough positions that became huge winners in the following days. Depending on allocation size it’s plausable enough that I just assume he’s right.
Yes, there is a lack of transparency as he is not posting entry prices and position size.
@blackalgo – If Le Fly was lying he’d just say he was up x%, rather than still recovering his dd. Look, just because you can’t trade your way out of a wet paper bag doesn’t mean that more competent traders can’t do their job. As you were.
Fee Fi Fo Fum
I smell the blood of … BlackAlgo & Bob
I suggest you spend more time micro – analyzing your own portfolio performance. You’ll be better for it in the end. Particularly if you use this website for what it’s meant to do, provide you trading ideas and help you improve your process. If it’s not doing that then I suggest you find a website that does and spend your time in that comments section rather than this. Or, perish the thought, spending time with your family or developing a useful skill.
+1
completely agree – I just don’t see the need for dishonesty is all. I think readers would prefer the straight goods. Its a great blog and there are great ideas posted by all – and I commend everyone for that.
I don’t owe any of you people anything at all. Say those words and let it sink in. Remember who you are, a reader and a guy with a chip on his shoulder and then remember that “The Fly” doesn’t give a shit what you think.
Hey fair enough. Your blog, your rules. I just feel like you’d be the first one calling someone out on that. Anyway blog on.
Happy Labor Day Fly… Hope you spend the day relaxing those tired muscles and bones from the laborious work you do on a daily basis.
Fly. While I want to subscribe to a nasty September, and it appears that the market is properly set up. However, the British are voting to cut Russia off of the Swift system and there is NO Reaction. That event would cancel Russia out of 30% of their daily financial transactions. Again, no response. Then Euro central banks are giving incentives to other banks to buy stock futures. Huh! These markets are so manipulated by central banks that a major correction will not be allowed. They can not let momo to get going on the downside so they backstop every dip. As always I will go with the flow. However, with September looming small pullbacks will be met with Central Bank outright buying of futures.
How many times do I have to insult you people to finally get the message? It’s repetitive.
Fly,
Let them all twist in the wind. You can take a horse to water but……
Fly, wtf. No bannings? You’re getting soft man.
I kill in silence
The market goes higher is Sept., I’m loading up on XIV. Giddyup!
R u still doing the raffle drawing for $1k?
Yes
http://www.theonion.com/articles/true-ar-bruthas-dont-take-no-layba-day-off,16253/
What was that POS?? I stopped reading after the Headline.