The last time The PPT missed an oversold signal was November of 2011. It did and it didn’t. Within a day or two of the signal the market dropped off the table, down into the sewers, then quickly spiked like a banshee from hell–hitting overbought within days. Tomorrow will be the 7th day since it flagged OS. We judge the signal on a 10 day hold and looking at the NIKKEI getting samurai’d to the face and our futures tanking lower by 1%, odds are this signal will miss. Granted, if we rally hard next week, PPT can be redeemed. However, the point I am trying to make is this dip is sort of an outlier. The market is exhibiting unusual characteristics, likely fueled by geo-political events.
After today’s sales, I am about 15% cash for trading accounts, 7% cash for personal and 25% weighted in TLT. I will not short anything into the hole. Instead, I will cut losses as I deem fit, raise cash along the way, and attempt to catch the next inflection point to make up losses.
For me, 2014 has been one giant whirlwind of fuckery. One jack in the box surprise after the other. We remain trend-less, violently meandering between ranges, grinding momo traders into dust.
Best case scenario: we gap lower and rally off the lows. A few things are certain: Congress is on vacay. The President is an idiot. And Janet Yellen is in way over her head.
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A perfect assessment of the state of affairs, as usual.
Even if we bounce next week, how can u deem ppt as correct? It was wrong for 8 days and finally got things right? Cmon now. A broken clock is right twice a day
What part of a 10 day hold is unclear? Are you autistic?
Let me repeat what I just said, but in idiot terms.
Since it is judged on a 10 day hold, let’s imagine you bought XYZ on day 1 at 90. By day 7 it was trading at 86. But, by day 10, the market rallied and XYZ gapped up to 92, making you a winner.
See how the market works, fucked face?
In summary, history will show PPT wrong on 1,3,5,7 days holds, but right on 10.
Or, it’s entirely plausible that it simply misses this signal, which would be extremely rare.
ok, so in 2 days, we should be higher than where PPT started. yeah right. not even close
To summarize… “Giant whirlwind of fuckery” and “the President is an idiot”.
Mmmm. Mutton.
BTFD of course. Then sell into strength. Rinse and repeat.
The American war machine is being fired up tonight. Like a hillbilly dusting off his ’84 carb’d mustang 5.0 and revving it up to show off his new shitty sounding exhaust consisting of 2 chamber flows with dumps.
No one gives a fuck if we bomb ISIS… I will buy in size tomorrow. Half before the open if this irrational dip holds, the other half on the bounce from the lows.
Who’s buying the gap lower?
Already balls deep. We’ll bounce though
Vxx puts for me.
Get long XIV
I bought XIV into the close around 35
Sell inverse vol at open
Wait and see what levels hold
i already tole u
Me.
^^ what he said
Even if we did bomb-bomb-bomb, bomb-bomb-Iraq, the market would buy the news of course. If you go back over time markets tend to sell off on rumors of war and then rally once it actually starts or the rumors dissipate. It’s so predictable.
Who here besides me is actually kind of shocked to see the market actually go down? To see the ES actually drop 100 points? shits crazy.
“Jack in the Box” as in the Twilight Zone’s, “It’s real good that you did that, Little Anthony. Reeeeal good.”
Nice explanation/accountability re metrics of the PPT.
The real nut cutin is at hand. We are just getting started with this mini bear. Shorts are the only working medium term plays. Sell all pops until it quits working.
That last paragraph should be etched in stone! And displayed next to the charging bull on Wall St.
Godzilla blowing a gasket tonight. Did all the housewives go on the rag during a blood moon?
10 yr at 2.35 TLT rippin
Personally waiting for the TBT trade. Not yet thou
i bought a contract hours b4 iraq news
An amusing look at the world and G8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kQj4Z-hFIU
war is bullish for equities. if we do enter a bear market it won;t be over iraq
I started legging into long SPY call position a few days ago. By yesterday, 8/7, it was up to a half position. Should be a full position by today or early next week depending on how the market trades. Loving this dip.
SPX was down 10 pts yesterday but the McClellan Oscillator was actually up 4.75. That kind of divergence usually signals a bottom.
wow what a rebound ..pppt was screaming oversold and it looks like it was right
Ppt doesn’t lose
futures already flipped green after plunging overnight
“Who’s the bitch NOWWWWWW…..?”