There isn’t anything left to say or do here. It’s obvious to me that I’ve been singled out, cursed by some celestial being to suffer from mediocrity. This same mediocrity has plagued me for the past 2 years, always occurring in the 4th quarter. It creeps up, ever so slowly, then BAM!: decapitation.
Just to recap what I’ve witnessed today, in a nutshell.
The Dow Jones went up 50 points in the morning, all the while my holdings roared out of the gates, like hungry lions trapped inside of a sweat shop. “The Fly” took this opportunity to head over to the gym, for a little bulking up. By the time he got back, his position were covered in blood, but the Dow Jones was now up 100 points!
REVERSAL! in NSTG
REVERSAL! in BALT
REVERSAL! in JAZZ
REVERSAL! in TRLA
PLUNGE! in RBCN
More downside action in ALJ.
Like I said, there isn’t anything left to discuss. I’ve made my bed of fleas and now lie down in it, drifting away like a log in a stream.
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I feel your pain! The market has ripped open my anus.
I will sleep wrapped up in burlap under a bridge tonight.
rbcn retraced almost all of the pop, but GTAT is keeping half. bastards.
That’s because GTAT actually got a deal, where RBCN has been a perennial loser since IPO is the definition of burrito, only popping on a surprise non-material announcement to squeeze shorts / offer an exit point for those looking for liquidity. LOL
Fundamental:
– RBCN is vertically integrated in a commodity business. Production cost decreases will not likely be offset by any margin improvement. Not apples to apples, but just take a look at miners even when gold was “roaring tits”
– two customers account for 57% of revenue, top three three customers account for 72% of revenue (source, latest 10q)
– “Majority” of COGS lies in Inventory Accounts, WIP, Labor, OH, and they have no long term contract or supply chain to grow margins, let alone keep them in line.
– AR and Inventory down by 14 million, Cash only up 3 million. That must mean non-cash transactions went up, which is bad (lol) if you can’t convert money-owed to cash, or depend on deferred tax credits (ie, not actual business)
– Cash Flow disclosure shows allowance for bad debts up 300% yoy, see above
– YoY, Revenue down, COGS up (see above about cogs)
– SGA expenses, Marketing down YoY. You’d think they’d have more SGA and Marketing expense, what with all the opportunity on their doorstep (lol)
– <10% of revenue is from US, aka chinese burrito
– LOL at this gem — 234k out of 18.8m in revenue is from Sapphire. That's 1.2% of sales. Compared to GTAT, at 3.6% of sales. GTAT is a lot more transparent about sales too.
– From GTAT's 10k "demand for our sapphire products are driven by end-user demand for sapphire material, LED-quality material in particular. In each of our three business segments, the end-user demand for the output of our equipment has either declined substantially or supply has surpassed demand. In order to decrease inventories, we believe that companies selling polysilicon, solar cells and wafers and sapphire material, including some of our customers, have had to sell at prices that provide little or no margin."
UMMM LOL YA THINK, just look at RBCN
Liquidity:
– Stock will always be subject to momentum on both sides as share holder base is fickle — this works both up and down, and for RBCN, just pull up a 5 year chart since IPO. Theres a scant 12 months total where you could have made any money by buying and praying on the business model, and that was coming straight out of the 09 lows, when everything was rising.
So anyway, since I'll probably be banned for doing research, not offering any financial advice to anyone, RBCN is a dog, stay away.
If possible, I would like an explanation of the home page picture…
On the bright side (well not for me), YELP is closer to your purchase threshold and TWTR is tomorrow. Plenty of opportunities to shake things up.
google selleck sandwich waterfall it’s amazeballs
Oh cool – thanks!
Hey Fly, what happen to the badass Honey Badger; or did you just crash your Impala binging on Colt malt liquor n smoking crack …?
Fly, I came over here to see if you had an idea what is happening. I totally understand the sell off, but that rally in the DOW started last night in the Asia Session in the Futures, I wasn’t watching so close last night so I couldn’t find soure?? NYSE advance-decline volume is flat, nobody is buying this rally..just confused why it is even happening, market so overbought.
source, I never proof read..I should.
spx is going to 1800
It has been bashing against it’s 261% Fibo level from it’s 2009 move. It is just over some decade long GANN lines. You would need QE from China, EU, BoE and an increase in QE from USA to move up to the next fibo level which is way past 1800. BTW it appears that it could have been that lame MSFT that is the bane of all of this last night, the Number One held position of Mutual Funds. Says a lot.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-05/options-trader-bets-16-6-million-on-9-s-p-500-rally.html
I hear Roubini is starting a hedge fund, long gold short SPX, maybe apply for that
lol, Gold will move down with SPX..so I will pass. So Overbought ugly right now.
He can stuff all his gold up his ass.
short up days
long down days
2x dow is up 075 i’m down quite ugly , lot of stocks pressured down making new min with time passing , I’m waiting the bell to see what happens
How in the hell is BALT in a 2 cent trading range for the last couple hours….thar she blows captain, one way or another, just do not shiver me timbers….
I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say BALT blows to 5.50-5.75 AH
I think this is telling of where the market is headed by end of year.
With BALT, boats, and stock markets on the mind, I think some Ted Knight has some wise words. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVL4wKnpx2U
Very Nice. One of my favorites.
Staying the course in GE, it’s been steady since earnings. RIG finally moving, I’m underwater but this stock is a Spring stock and I’ll hold. Bought back AEO and GOGO after selling last week or so. Want more GTAT, maybe on the dip tomorrow. Haven’t added to BALT yet, small position and down.
RIG beat, congrats partner…
bad day for my trading port.. pain everywhere.. fuuck
investment port is ok though… old man stocks like KO ruled today…
have headache now.. momos got killed big
I just remember: “that even when he appears to be losing the Fly is winning.”
it didnt have to be this way.. u know the answer, it was to windy to sail today. so i stayed home , this was not unexpected as the wind has picked up as of late. lovin life right now , couldnt be more content. this is just a post for those who want the truth. my biggest holdings are oil n gold. but not for long.
dont post it it was just for u
I’m loving the action. Mostly short, phasing out longs.
Bears should love this bc it feeds our (very) longterm goals
Bulls should be a little worried (at least) Normal bulls need pullbacks
BALT earnings report summary……
Baltic Trading Limited Announces Third Quarter Financial Results
NEW YORK, Nov. 6, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Baltic Trading Limited (BALT) (“Baltic Trading” or the “Company”) today reported its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2013.
Financial Review: 2013 Third Quarter
The Company recorded a net loss for the third quarter of 2013 of $2.3 million, or $0.08 basic and diluted net loss per share. Comparatively, for the three months ended September 30, 2012, the Company recorded a net loss of $4.8 million, or $0.22 basic and diluted net loss per share.
EBITDA was $2.7 million for the three months ended September 30, 2013 versus $(31,000) for the three months ended September 30, 2012.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/baltic-trading-limited-announces-third-211500306.html
they had positive EBDITA of 2.3M versus in the red last year….but not an actual net profit. Guess they didn’t have work every day because calculating the rates with their fleet shoulda had them fully in the black.
SO where is this heading? I honestly believe results were better than anticipated in probably most aspects and outlook should be positive. Perhaps an upgrade tomorrow…
Probably won’t know anything until after the CC. They beat on top and bottom increased their DIV and grew their fleet. Definitely was a good ER but as well all know everything depends on WS reaction.
Fly Thoughts?