Jesus Christ I am getting lit up in this BALT position, now down more than 15% from my basis. Let me put this to you clearly, as the market seems to be getting this story wrong.
BALT IS NOT RELIANT UPON CAPESIZE RATES.
First, have a look at their fleet. Let it be noted, they bought another Handy last quarter, brining their total to 5. So they own 2 Capes, 4 Supras and 5 Handys.
Got it?
Now let’s look at rates.
Pray tell me, have supramax and handysize rates gone down with the rout in capes, or instead have they gone HIGHER?
Thank you.
I believe this company will be vindicated on earnings date, scheduled for 11/7.
Based upon current rates, POST 60% drop in capesize rates (one must surmise they are close to bottoming), BALT is making about $115,000 per day or $10.6 million per quarter, still sporting quarter over quarter growth of 40%+, hardly a reason to sell a stock that is fully financed–sporting the youngest fleet on the market.
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Bought more this morning. Here’s a page that shows the average spot handy size fee. Currently $8860 and has been going up every day along with supra rates.
http://www.pacificbasin.com/en/ir/industryinfo.php
With that and the dryships page you can calculate their daily revenue every day. Their boats should all be highly utilized so they’re printing profits every day. In addition to idiots thinking the BDI affects them, the only other possibility I see is bankruptcy concerns with their parent company (GNK). Although that wouldn’t affect the finances of BALT, BALT is run by GNK people who might get distracted. Still no reason to sell it off this much. BALT is under contract through sometime next year or later at anywhere from 95-115% of the spot rate on all their boats except possibly one Handysize who’s contract expires this month.
Here is some crazy talk.
I am seeing positive flow into the gold stocks now even as the metals hit intra day lows.
It’s a game the big boyz (we know who they are) like to play (between the futures and the equities).
cant we just play drys options? same type of pullback as balt
it’s just a hated sector.
so BALT beats, they get a pop, and it’ll trade back down.
completely agree..
this was a bdi assisted technical pull
The story I read via Seeking Alpha was that, eventually, the supramax and handysize rates will rollover after the capes have dropped because they have done so historically. So, even though we can’t predict that this will occur, it has apparently occurred in the past and people are selling. I’m hanging around with a small position. On another subject, no news as to why AMBA dropped almost 9 percent yesterday. I sold out last week, was temped to buy it back. Today it rebounds. Makes me think these steep one-day declines are just manipulated buying opportunities.
Eventually and reality are two different things.
Morgan Stanley flip flopped yesterday on their endoresement or whatever it is MS does. I think they are wrong hence I bot yesterday
I can’t spell and that comment was re: AMBA
fly who is this @dividendmaster on twit bashing you and BALT? he says 53% of their deadweight is in capes
I don’t know who he is or care. The facts are in the above post.
someone who wants more shares @ lows
SNTS & AZPN
Very True about BALT’s ships. But, the Shippers follow Steel and if that slides the Sector that brings Ore and Coal goes right along with it (yes I know that BALT does Grain, etc..but even their CEO is all hot for Steel). BTW, still so surprised that with a jump to 2.57% of the 10 year, drop in Oil and a eur/usd slipping under 1.3600, that the Bulls are still buying this Overbought Mess of a Market. For the last five years we have created a massive fucked up market with record Margin Holdings based on the Clams of the World…it’s a bubble, the only question is when it pops. Optons Addict, etc may have seen many bubbles and know when they pop…but for me, this is my first one. It is taking forever, but it will pop. RING, RING…It’s the German Con Law Court on the Phone…lol.
i’ve read you writing ” this bubble will pop ” from 3 years now. what bubble? gum? stretching ? forever ? 🙂
Bood, In March of 2009 at Real Money Rev Sharks Blog, I noticed we hit bottom and actually bought NFLX, RTP, C etc…then I started to dig deeper I saw that most of this was being driven not by true demand but of the China Govt in buying up Copper, etc..(at that point (the Chinese New Year had a move up of BDI which was seasonally wrong in 2009) I didn’t understand Central Bank/Macro Analysis). So, I figured I would sell everything and just sit and watch this bubble grow to learn the anatomy of it, demand was not present just mere Govt Action, I document it daily at my website diary…Never have we seen such massive Global Govt Interventions, Now we have the North Seas with massive Overproduction (which is going to hurt the refiners), Massive Copper, etc surplus around the world, a Global Markit PMI that is still lame, EU in fear that the German Ct will say No to OMT, Record high Margin Accounts, Real Estate Market fueled by Blackrock “Let’s buy and Rent it out” thesis….if you can’t see this as one massive Ugly Bubble, then maybe MOST can’t..which surprises me.
Pure poppycock. Everything the “trading” (doubt it) nymph posts is syphilitic insanity tinged narcissism.
whatever…I still love it all.
Three Reasons Why I Am Long $IMMR
Tue Sep 3, 2013 5:02pm 11
I hate titles like the one I just published, which was done on purpose to appeal to the weak minded “reader class.”
Here goes.
The new Samsung watch may have haptics in it and may represent a new revenue source.
The new playsatation by Sony, if enabled with hapitcs, represents a brand new revenue opportunity, as their licensing deal was for pstation 1-3. In other words, this is where IMMR cleans house.
The spectre of an AAPL deal is not a foregone conclusion. As of now, AAPL does not use haptics in their devices. Big mistake.
As an aside, IMMR does have a $19 million share buyback in place and a current lawsuit against HTC, which will begin during mid-2014. Their deal with Microsoft was done early, so there isn’t a royalty opportunity with Redmond. However, they will make money off the peripheral makers (controllers).
None of the above is baked into the 2014 numbers. I believe there will be material upside surprises, which is why I am long and continue to add to my position.
Come back to IMMR sounds so good doesn’t it!
YOLO into earnings!
unless there is something you dont know?
Irrelevant, but balt’s website truly blows.
@DividendMaster is the shit and you got onto the shippers trade too late. Hope you don’t let this dog take a bit out of those sweet sweet gains