I closed out Friday 120% long, exercising leverage because I felt “nothing could go wrong.”
In case you’re wondering, no one is doing it like me now. I am at new highs, painting a masterpiece in real time. Have a look at some of my work.
With Friday’s melt up in stocks and subsequent melt down in bonds, I suspect there will be extreme volatility and ‘ultra-violence’ next week (no Egypt). All of the bond gimps are gonna get checked out of their positions. Money is clearly flowing into equities; but that will not last forever.
Once the 10 yr breaches 3%, panic will ensue. Why invest in a stock with a 3% dividend when you could buy some rapidly depreciating government paper?
I think I answered my own question.
I think the market will trend higher in July, then drop in August and September. There will be a sharp bounce in bonds, but not until August–traditionally an exceptionally strong month for TLT.
Eventually the japery will end and buccaneers will force markets sharply lower. But predictions are nothing more than leaves bustling in the wind. They look nice for a short duration, then people forget about them and continue to live their lives. Take everything with a grain of salt.
Most of the time, I view life superciliously, as I am keen to the game and know how it works. It’s true what they say: with age comes wisdom. When I was a young pleb, like many of you, I viewed things sardonically, as it suited my rebellious demeanor. I’ve never been one to respect rules, as most are concocted by jackasses with a sub-human moral compass.
Back to stocks: I like AMBA and of course IMMR into a strong tape. I have an animalistic appetite for IMMR on dips. The solars are– completely– in a world of their own. SOL wants higher, no doubt about it. With higher rates comes bigger margins for banks, particularly for the regionals. I like FITB, HBAN and SBNY.
My largest positions are IMMR, GS and O.
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FIG
Risk appetite index?
Do you mind sharing what your custom risk appetite index is flashing? Without seeing it, would imagine a huge divergence is occurring between equities and the index.
The Devil has been quiet, is he still long UNXL?
So Monday I get a bunch of cash in from a land sale. Where should I put it?
Put it in some different land that’s undervalued?
Just kidding: looks like equities are the way to go, until interest rates get to 3% (like Fly warned above).
3.0% is where I expect Clams will come in and try to hold it, .but bubbles pop when things get out of control…this is a MASSIVE BIG BUBBLE so maybe, finally, the Clams of the world will fail.
Worldwide clams reign supreme.
lol…true at this point. But, “ring, ring…oh Draghi it’s the German Con Law Court on the phone…they are saying that they reached a decision…you know that unlimited OMT think you have. Well they said that is a big No, at least at the German End of It”…..”Ring, Ring…it’s China too, they say Screw you fellow Clams, we are no longer in this mess”……lol, I can have dreams…one day this Bear will have her day. BTW MBS was a total BLACK FRIDAY event…ugly.
We go through 3% like hot butter. Then just when you think the Clam is beat….well you know the rest.
I wouldn’t bet against the Clam. A bond calamity would surely be short-lived and not tradeable. He has always stated that if he doesnt’t like what he sees he will step up asset purchases. I would assume one day there will be a tradeable bond meltdown but that is probably going to be when debt to gdp gets more japanesque w high unemployment. Until then he has more juice to contain rates
At the current debt growth rate, said bond calamity will happen w in the decade if other revenue generating factors stay roughly the same as they are
Paris, feeling the economic crunch and depending heavily on tourist dollars; has put out pamphlets for the locals, “How To Be Less Rude.”
Whatever your opinion, the comment section afterwards will probably reflect it !
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/paris-manual-teaches-polite-tourists-110000572.html
So now what?
The jobs report is all smoke and mirrors due to so many “folks” giving up looking for work, interest rates just took a huge jump……and equities are going to continue to rise at their recent stellar pace?
Something has to give and something will give. The question is when.
That is not the question, the question is: are you making money in this market? Why? Because it doesn’t get easier than that.
so we are moving to a 2 class system…it seems. looking at europe they seem to be milking 1 country at a time.
Yes, a man on a 100 MILLION DOLLAR VACATION told people in Africa they NEED TO STAY POOR because if they become prosperous, he believes it’ll have an impact on the imaginary global warming he’s concerned about.