I’m not so worried about AG. The sector has been blown to smithereens and it’s only a matter of time before it bounces. I am much more upset by the drowning of my GTAT position, which was once up more than 15%, now down 1%.
To blow a big gain like that is almost inexcusable. When I make decisions that haunt me, even after all of my past successes, I feel like quitting. The daily toils of trading takes its toll, as I am managing real money here. I’m not a paper trader, as some of you would like to believe, and I do not run money for my mommy.
The responsibility of building wealth for successful people is burdensome. Generally speaking, people who enjoy success expect top results and they get bored very quickly. Should I underperform this year, I am sure some will opt to send their money elsewhere. It’s nothing personal, just the nature of the business.
Naturally, I am handsomely rewarded for my work, a routine that is mocked by Mrs. Fly, as she tends to value work that leads to paralyzing back and neck injuries, not of the office chair varietal. Nonetheless, I press on, not for the sake of my family, believe it or not, but to realize success.
The term “realizing success” is a general term. For me, success means outperforming the markets and hitting milestones for assets under management. Early on in my career, I was fixed on “providing for my family.” But after awhile, that becomes a given.
Being a finance blogger adds extra responsibility, due to the degenerate nature of man. If I mention XYZ “looks awesome and amazing” odds are a great many of you will follow me in, just like that AG trade from the other day. Believe me, I do not like my trades being cloned by others. I’m not interested in providing financial advice to people on the internet, only share with them my thoughts and tribulations.
Having said that, gold and silver stocks will bottom today, leading to a sharp 10-15% snap back rally. Odds are, I will end up selling AG for break-even, or a small loss. Odds are, I will regret not selling GTAT 15% higher. But that’s the market, unforgiving, relentless in its pursuit for the truth.
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Fly, are you straight fee base, or do have a fee + set up?
Fly,
I’d like to request a redemtion and withdraw all of my money. Please have your secretary mail me the form.
Love always,
Mommy
PS. I’ll have supper ready by 5:00 so don’t be late.
Beans and franks?
Thats not good, that is The Fly’s biggest client…uh oh!
good post, Señor
Just curious – why would you expect GTAT to go up in the short period of time you usually hold a position?
Given that widespread use of a sapphire screen surface is a speculative bet with an unknown timeline, and given that GTAT is far from a shoe-in to be one of what is likely to be very few successful producers, why were you expecting the GTAT story to catch on now rather than over time as its technology and business started to prove itself?
Because there has been a sharp increase in capacity utilization at Sapphire factories and it is widely expected that pricing is on the recovery trail.
If Sapphire gets a big smartphone win, that’s simply gravy to the underlying fundamentals.
Thanks.
I haven’t investigated much, but my impression was that GTAT’s only reason for being in the sapphire field would be the mobile screens. If so, improvements in demand for the existing sapphire markets wouldn’t be very relevant.
A focus on the technology and product fundamentals, which suits my abilities, is very often irrelevant to short term moves in the equity market. So, I was wondering what you were seeing in your sphere of expertise.
Followed GTAT for several years. Basically a long / short range trade. Not beta. Beyond beta. Company has warned for several quarters including the FY 2013. Should trade 2.50 to 3.85. If you get 4.25 consider it a squeeze related gift. Just my two cents.
Has anyone evaluated pair trading short GLD / long GDX? GLD has vastly outperformed since 12/2010. Biggest difference between the two is sentiment, which has now eroded for GLD, so compression (physical catching down to miners) seems warranted.
Fly, I find a lot of women like the country music version of life which involves their man being some sort of farmer or mechanic and just eking by rather than a businessman or entrepreneur that pulls in seven figures. It’s quite odd really.
They’re idiots.
Stop hanging out in redneck bars.
No redneck bars here, just a bunch of people who think working hard is better than working smart. (It isn’t)
Work hard in the gym a couple days a week and you will crush farmers with your first. Spend the rest of the time working hard with your mind to crush them with your money.
Fly, a while back you mentioned investing in fixed income securities. I was wondering if you ever bought and what did you buy?
Greek bonds are paying a nice rate
Fly, I would like to transfer my bullshit LOW 5 figure account to you!
The PPT is a wildman in volatile markets. OS stats are like MoneyBall.
The data is a lot to sort through and you have to keep up with it daily to get a feel, but it helps anyone build their own trading model, and when the trigger hit ~ Damn it works good;
Give it a shot people, it will keep you in the game and temper rash decisions.
The Fly,
Are you still getting destroyed on your FRO trade?
FRO trade was a good one. He didn’t call the bottom, but the stock is going to $4 by Nov 2013
Looks like it has a better chance of going to zero……
As long as shipping rates have hit bottom and other competitors weaken, FRO will be alright.
the company is hemorrhaging cash, “earnings” are declining, and people like the fly who are taking a straight up bath on their holdings are puking up shares left and right, i am initiating coverage on this turd with a PT of 0
Banned- loser
Nice post Sir, and women are idiots when it comes to physical work vs mental.
If I ain’t scrubbing the toilet on Sunday, I get no respect. (no rodney)
Building wealth for successful people is burdonsome?
Oh, boo-hoo!
clam up
Nymph’s Take…So much of the sell off yesterday was over the G20 upcoming meeting schedule which will discuss Japan. All the Hedge Funds dressed in Drag, trying to be Mrs. Wantanabe got out of Yen Short posistions (imho the real Mrs. Wantanabe is not around). Anyway, Some Canada Official is out saying that the Japan Discussion at the G20 is nothing much and he likes what Japan is doing…so our Drag Queens go buy up the aud/jpy and eur/jpy and eur/usd like crazy and sell Yen again…fwiw, if China grows balls with rest of Asia as its back up, we could have a G20 finally interesting and not just a photo op.(a Nymph can dream),
Ask Mrs. Fly if she’s ever had a “knee on desk drawer” injury before.
Sheeesh these pleather chairs can be a danger zone.
AG = VXX without tits