iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,449 Blog Posts

Sapphire Will Kill the Gorilla

This material is just the sort of thing that could separate one smartphone maker from the next. If manufacturers are worried about the expense, passing it onto the consumer, I’m afraid they don’t know their customers very well.

Sapphire, a crystalline form of aluminum oxide, probably won’t ever be as cheap as Gorilla Glass, the durable material from Corning that’s used to make screens on iPhones and other smartphones. A Gorilla Glass display costs less than $3, while a sapphire display would cost about $30. But that could fall below $20 in a couple of years thanks to increased competition and improving technology, says Eric Virey, an analyst for the market research firm Yole Développement. And since sapphire performs better than glass, that price could make it cheap enough to compete, he says.

Sapphire is harder than any other natural material except diamond; by some measures, it’s three times stronger than Gorilla Glass, and it is also about three times more scratch resistant. That’s why Apple uses it now to protect the camera on its iPhone 5. Virey says that all major mobile-phone makers are considering using sapphire to replace glass. “I’m convinced that some will start testing the water and release some high-end smartphones using sapphire in 2013,” he says.

An alternative to using pure sapphire is to laminate an ultrathin layer of sapphire with another, cheaper transparent material, maintaining much of the performance advantage of sapphire at a cost comparable to that of the glass typical in mobile-phone displays.

For this purpose, GT Advanced Technologies, based in Nashua, New Hampshire, is developing a method for making sapphire sheets thinner than a human hair—much thinner than the nearly millimeter-thick glass used now on mobile phones. (The technology, originally developed for making very thin solar cells, was acquired from Twin Creeks Technologies. See “Startup Aims to Cut the Cost of Solar Cells in Half.”)

GT is also cutting the cost of sapphire manufacturing by following the strategy that it used over the last several years to reduce the cost of making crystalline silicon for solar cells.

To make the sapphire, aluminum oxide is melted down in a specialized furnace and then allowed to slowly cool to form a large crystal. That crystal is then cut with a diamond-coated wire saw. GT designs its furnaces so that they can be cheaply upgraded to make ever larger crystals as the technology improves, allowing customers to increase production without buying new equipment.

GT is more optimistic about prices than Virey, estimating that sapphire displays might cost only three to four times as much as those made from Gorilla Glass. People at the company say prices will fall further as GT improves its furnaces, and as the manufacturers that buy those furnaces streamline their operations.

Several other companies with proprietary technologies are also lowering the cost of sapphire, including Rubicon Technologies in the United States, Monocrystal in Russia, and Sapphire Technology in South Korea. If costs can get low enough, these manufacturers may have a large market waiting for them. But they’ll have to continue to contend with the incumbent technologies—Gorilla Glass and similar materials offered by other manufacturers. This year Corning introduced a new version of the material that it says is about twice as resistant to scratches. It could be in products later this year.

Eventually this kills Corning’s gorilla glass. It’s simply a matter of waiting around for it to happen now.
Disclosure: I am long GTAT
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14 comments

  1. DaveyNC

    Sir Fly, perhaps you missed it as I was late to IBC tonight, but in your previous post I commented that GTAT suits you, inasmuch as they own an ion cannon. No shit. http://goo.gl/fAeGA

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  2. Egregious Gentleman
    Egregious Gentleman

    But the “selling shit to AAPL” biz can be tricky. As you know, they have a way of bullying suppliers.

    Maybe that concern isn’t applicable here? Too hard to commoditize the tech?

    Tips hat,
    Egregious Gentleman

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  3. The Eye-Talian Stallion
    The Eye-Talian Stallion

    What if the market does not go away in May? All those “I went 100% cash” guys will be left out in the cold again.

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    • Mister Jinx

      Very true, but the same thing gets said every year. Eventually they’ll lose big — and I think this might be the year they do so — but this exact same conversation has taken place in April the last 3 (or more) years with the same result.

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  4. fake amish

    Nice. A true Senor investing play. With the communist clams fucking up the tape a real story is refreshing.

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  5. Clock

    “Sapphire may be resistant to scratches but it is extremely brittle. It’s been used in the watch industry for years but many sport watches opt for mineral glass (often proprietary borosilicate glass, like gorilla glass) because it doesn’t have nearly as much of a tendency to shatter when dropped.”

    Copied the quote above from the comments section at this link. http://tinyurl.com/bmxjf9r If true, they have some work to do.

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  6. charlie

    When out blending in with the plebeian dullards, I occasionally wear a Citizen with a sapphire crystal. The material is quite durable. Looks good too.

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    • Mike

      nothing wrong with a citizen eco-drive for everyday wear…its a >$500 watch (no snobbery)

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  7. ottnott

    You mean you don’t already wield a Vertu Ti phone in your white-gloved hand?

    There are a lot of “ifs” to overcome before sapphire knocks Gorilla Glass out, and then further ifs must be satisfied for GT Advanced Technologies to capture significant revenues and profit from a sapphire win. Of course, eventual business success is not a requirement for profitable trades in GTAT stock.

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  8. JV

    You have been raiding my wild trades lists now for weeks. FRO, YOKU, CALL and now GTAT. Good grief and good luck.

    XIV new 52 week high this morning. First since February. In the past new highs tended to mark pending pullbacks. Not that I take this as gospel. Just a thought.

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    I think other internet business lovers would need to start thinking about this important blog site as an example. Particularly clean and user friendly design, not to mention superior article content! You’re a specialist regarding this kind of niche 🙂

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