If you’ve been following me since January, you should be up more than 20% year to date. With my small book of business, I am plus 24% and counting, levered long at 110%. At times, I’ve been 150% long–cannibal in a locker filled with weak bankers style. Do you know why?
Answer: because I can.
Since I’ve been blogging on the internets, I’ve never been levered this long. Back in 2008, I was 200% short, many, many times. My confidence was not caused by chemical imbalances or because I am a “perma-bull.” Quite the contrary, as I prefer everything to burn down. I am perma-banking-coin. Let’s leave it at that.
I went long and stayed long because I was supported by central banks and history. I know my stock market history; therefore, I am never doomed to repeat failures, aside from the occasional December blow up.
POMO.
With today’s gains, the SPY is up 2.7% for the month, stretching its winning streak to 5 consecutive months. This has been the easiest market in the world if you obeyed two things.
1. The overarching trend.
2. Stayed within the parameters of popular stocks.
Often times people try to outsmart the market by buying outlier stocks, in stupid jackass fashion.
Listen to me very closely, the market is a great whore who intends to suckle you. Do not take her to the movies and attempt to woo her with flowers and gifts of chocolate and persimmons. She will do it for free.
Why try to plant onions in the cold dirt, when there are sweet potatoes on the table to eat?
Ask yourselves that question when you see to your sins and redress your immorality.
The grande finale is upon us. We are on a fixed course higher until April and I intend to milk this cow for every last drop, then kill it for its meat!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqAlMItkV44
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“…and I intend to milk this cow for every last drop, then kill it for its meat!”
You mean get fleeced for -10% as your comeuppance hits you between the eyes again? As an fyi, I have seen “tax day” as the market peak on a few people’s radar, so here’s to front running… leave the capitulation for the poor man.
The last post you wrote in all caps was precisely at the wrong time, not that you do not have a gift, but how do you put yourself through this? Stay vigilant, a fly who tries again and again at the same area gets swatted… valuations are certainly up there… believe it.
Or don’t. But when I see “straight gambling” or “riding the rollercoaster higher” on this site, oh boy… why ask for it again?
Signed,
A loyal follower
Dear loyal follower:
I’d like to address your grievances, as I feel indebted to you for being so loyal.
The following returns have been realized by my person since blogging on the internet.
2007: +27%
2008: +60%
2009: +90%
2010: +60%
2011 and 2012: 5-7%
2013: +24%
Please don’t leave financial advise in the comments section.
Thanks.
You are too kind, it will never happen again. You do, indeed, have some otherworldly experience
My experience has given me the talents to repeat success.
Feel free to bet against me whenever you get the urge. Let me know how that works out for you.
Not to belabor, that last was not to be sarcastic, i dont bet against you. Few do.
Ok, I’ll take my defenses down and be serious for a minute.
I don’t expect to endure a -10% day because I am prepared to pack it in until Fall and have short positions that I can bulk up on to stem the tide.
I fully expect the market to top out in May, which is why I will exit gracefully in April.
That’s not to say I will not trade. However, I will not be dedicated long at 110%, playing in the sand like a drunken baby.
my god fly, you must be a gazillionare! i have four mouths to feed, can you spare a dime?
I’m up 52% this year.
52% on what?
I trade your momma’s lunch money.
Horse dung.
Thank you, Dr. Fly, for imparting this wisdom.
I was keen to the first thing (the overarching trend), but blind to the second thing.
I will start seeing to my sins, now.
Another week of gains sounds right to me. This is going to end badly on a scale of November 2012. Which is not that bad in context to 2011, 2010, etc
No one said it would last forever, just longer than now.
I have no reason to doubt your performance, but even if you were executing the trades for me, I don’t think my performance would match yours. Some of the stuff you have been trading lately trades very thin. I just can’t bring myself to touch it.
What is thin?
Was RAS or USG thin? How about WNC or BZH?
The small stocks I played made up a very small percentage of my gains.
BV trades 800,00+ per day.
While I’m bullish, I can’t bring myself to being on margin overnight right now, especially with the Cyprus wild card. You’ve got much bigger brass ones than me.
WETF-Up 76.8% YTD!
I was thinking more along the lines of CALL and ZAGG for example. It is clear they are small plays but are almost a distraction. Sometimes I get a boiler room feel reading the comments.
USG was a great call though, and I am happy to have followed.
It’s probably partly my own bias right now- not seeing much I like, so naturally, everything is a shit stock.
Zagg isn’t that thin
I need to atone for my sins.
But there is a complex theological principle which partially or fully absolves me. I shall explain in a future blog post.
What is your definition of popular stocks? Do you mean flavor of the day or household names? Where does BV, one of your top holdings stand in popular speak?
Popular stocks can be found on the 52 week high list, like bx, RAS, usg etc
Gotcha.
Wow, I have been following almost every trade but am nowhere near 20% this year. Of course I didn’t use margin and never went over 10% on any holding. What are you using lately as initial position allocation? 5%?