As you know, I’ve been doing some traditional research over the past week, in order to expand my universe of stocks. I’m only as good as my last trade and my last few have really stunk. Thus far, only a few names strike a cord, like ELLI, BCEI, CADX, AMBA and maybe ERII. I’ve moved over to seasonal factors and was reminded how well ag names do in February, ahead of the planting season. Stocks like MOS, CF and ANDE are of interest to me.
Then I came across the best performing stock for the month of February and was awestruck by the results.
THLD
Does anyone know the name and why it tends to explode in Feb? Are there oncology conferences that I need to be made aware of? I only ask because I tend to avoid biotech names, but have recently become interested in a few–thanks to an overzealous doctor that I know.
It’s also worth mentioning that silver does phenomenal in February, with AGQ averaging +14% for the month.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
It was down 5 of those 7 years, slightly above flat one year, and up huge last year. So one of the 7 years skews the data.
nevermind….. ugh.
My fault. That is a deviation metric that I built in.
“Does anyone know the name and why it tends to explode in Feb?”
Survirorship bias. If you are taking a large sample of stocks and just querying for ones that are up big in a particular month, you would expect random variation would return one or two at least. Just like seeing what stock is up the most on Tuesdays.
Not true…
It’s because February is early in the year, and they are always on the Threshold of success….
_____
Then explain how UN managed to go up 27 consecutive years in December, with zero down years.
I did. Explain how there could be an edge that was so simple and obvious, and yet not be neutralized by market forces. What you’d see is buying before Dec as traders rush to front run, eventually causing the pop to be in Nov.
Flip a coin 27 times. Do that about 3,000 times. Law of averages would likely tell you its not crazy to expect one series where you get 27 tails in a row. Its not some mystical quality of the stock.
Actually the odds of 27 tails in a row is one in 134,217,728 i.e. 2^27.
thank you
Stay away from overzealous doctors. First of all they have no common sense, (ask him if he can change a flat tire). Second of all if they believe in a molecule they will follow it into hell. Third, the FDA can stop any trial at any time. On the other hand HIV / cancer trials are fast tracked, which is a good indication that the molecule is worthy of a look see. But watch out, the FDA is increasingly politically correct, even if the molecule sucks.
So if one works at at biotech and believes in the drug and receives ISO’s, ESOP’s and outright grants then no harm, no foul, it’s a good deal.
Otherwise fuggetaboutit.
Fly, on ELLI. wasn’t there a rule change on the mortgage business yesterday?, hence the drop in price.
Yes, but as I understand it, things don’t change much for ELLI.
I want to wait and see if it drops some more. It still looks weak.
Not sure if they’re affected by the well-being of the agency MREITs (Annaly, Two Harbors, AGNC etc). Investing in RMBS has been nationalized thanks to QE Infinity – maybe ELLI could sign up the Fed, after all they probably need all the help they can get to keep track of their underlying mortgages ($40bn/month – forever).
Been debating THLD for awhile. Here’s a summary of recent catalysts
In Feb 2012 THLD announced trial results that met their endpoint demonstrating a statistically significant 63% improvement (p=0.005) in progression free survival (PFS) for patients treated with TH-302 and gemcitabine versus gemcitabine alone. This represented a 2-month increase in PFS for patients treated with TH-302…. That said, FDA is pivoting towards requiring both Overall Survival (OS) with PFS… so celebration may have been semi-premature.
Then…
On September 30, 2012, THLD announced preliminary data from an ongoing dose-escalation Phase 1/2 clinical trial of its investigational hypoxia-targeted drug TH-302 in combination with bevacizumab in patients with recurrent glioblastoma… since then the stock is down about 45%… while OS is only the secondary trial endpoint, FDA is starting to look at both OS and PFS when granting approval because of exorbitant costs for end of life benefits. The trial is ongoing until April 2014 so there could be upcoming data but none is announced or indicated on clinicaltrials.gov
Hope that helps
THLD…it’s been a fly’s lab pick a few times recently. I got cold feet and hopped out before the gains.
Hey just one more thing, but you may have already looked at it Fly. Check out IMUC they are in the oncology field as well, they use an immune system based approach to battle cancer. I remember seeing it in a report you posted inside the PPT. It has great seasonality for February too.
Soybeans tend to bottom in Jan- Feb. and then peak in mid-summer (when Brazil crops come on board).
For whatever reason there is a connection between silver and soybeans.
Silver seasonal chart:
http://charts.equityclock.com/silver-futures-si-seasonal-chart
Soybean seasonal chart:
http://charts.equityclock.com/soybeans-futures-s-seasonal-chart
So then would you follow the equity clock model and buy JJG? Or is there another way of buying soybeans that a retail investor could follow?
thanks, BTW for the Equity CLock link
Can’t add much but have followed THLD for over one year – $1 to $10 spiking on interest / partnership with MRK then the data went sketchy primarily in survival benefit vs placebo – lately someone has held it at $4 excluding the recent run to $5 – I rate it slightly better than the average partnered bio with multiple trials and data pending
Hey Fly, can you run a poll on whether people think the bond market is in a bubble phase? I am really curious because in shaping an outlook for 2013, it’s easy to say “rates will go up” but I think this view is too common which may make it unlikely
its a biotech that has an interesting and potentially very bright future. some smart people i know are/were in it and like the name.
To correct : it was drug 302 for THLD vs standard of care gem which the OS was less than stellar
whatever – as soon as someone noted it wasn’t holding the 50 day it popped 20% ( this month ) If I had to buy it I’d pay around $4 worth watching but I’m not into coin tosses
Seeds have been doing better than fert. Better press, due to better growth and outlook. MON > MOS.
I like the Ag theme for 2013 but cannot in good faith help MON on the long side, ever. Know too many victims from their massive Agent Orange operations a few decades ago. Also personally know 2 farm families that have been sued by MON for having seeds from neighboring farms growing on their land.
This purloined from Propthink.com:
Competition in the segment, particularly as Threshold is slightly behind in the development process, will likely pressure THLD until Celgene reveals full data from Abraxane’s MPACT trial in January, just two months away. It could be a make or break moment, as Threshold and partner Merck (NYSE:MRK) have yet to begin a Phase 3 trial for TH-302 in pancreatic cancer, and may change strategies if Abraxane proves impressive. Add to that Ziopharm’s impending data release for soft tissue sarcoma and THLD faces significant headwind in the near-term; quality data from either will be negative for Threshold shares
There’s one more “e” in eyeing, their, El Capitan.
_________