I wanted to hit the ground running and dunk shot with MRVL. Before earnings disappointed this evening, I was sitting at my annual highs. Just last week I was contemplating making MRVL a 20% position, until I got cold feet.
Where did the unmarvelous idea of MRVL come from?
It came from a source of mine, who has been useful and resourceful to me in the past. I didn’t do the research, but trusted he did. Apparently, he was wrong, and by extension, so was I.
In hindsight, what was I to do? Should I have ignored his advice, even thought he’s never let me down in the past? He’s served me well in the past, but will now become excommunicated from the House of Fly. I will move on from MRVL and do well. At 12% of my holdings, I am looking at a 1% draw down from my assets in the AM. Given the current state of the market, I might make a good deal of that back in my other positions. Either way, my confidence is not shaken, not in the least.
My EL position was 10% of assets and it ran +6 on an earnings beat earlier this week. Net, net, I am fantastically up for the year (no homo).
Where will I make up the staggering 1% loss from my assets tomorrow?
Well, I have 10% positions in the following:
DECK, EXK, VHC, CTRP and my little TEA is nearing that level soon. Pick one; they’re all going higher.
This is what we do. The business of speculation is never seamless and “sure things” often turn into marvelous jokes.
We move on.
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With our cocks in hand we piss on those that piss on Fly!
You won, even though you lost, by not upping your stake to 20%.
Also, let me add by extension, this market doth suck.
All except for our little EXK, which I do believe is destined to break out shortly. EXK is like a bank account, but with a chance to double.
I haven’t won yet. Give me some time to figure it out, and I will make lemonade from these lemons.
I was thinking earlier that I couldn’t remember the last time you took a really significant loss. You do usually manage to average your way out of it. Except in something like VXX where that is an obvious fools errand. (also known as a “HuggieBear Errand”)
Anyway, MRVL prob won’t drop below $10, if that…..and maybe not below $11. You could average in and ride it out, but its a minor loss and there are better near-term opportunities (like even more EXK HA!)
MRVL indeed
regards
chuck bennett
This is what happens when we are not rigerous in our research and proceedures. I take a flyer often. Success is hit or miss on those occasions.
There are very smart people who are long MRVL. Einhorn has 300 mill tied up. They have $5 in net cash.
Now that they got their stock price down, they will use the cash to buy back cheaper shares. Why announce positive results and pay more for the shares?
That’s way the market is rolling right now.
Winners get treated like gold while the losers get murdered.
Word.
Down 1% on an earnings miss is why you are great. Most would be down 90% on OTM options! If someone I trusted reccomended a stock to me I would have went all in..
OEW Daily Recap:
“The short term counts suggests Minute wave v of Minor 3 continues to unfold from SPX 1396. The market hit extremely overbought, short term, suggesting some sort of pullback or sideways activity should follow. Then the rally is likely to resume. Short term support is now at SPX 1413/15 and 1402/03, with resistance at SPX 1422 and the 1440 pivot. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing point now around SPX 1403.”
As an aside, thnx for the follow up on the earlier post Teahouse (on the hi-tech explanation for AMCC).
As to MRVL, those who raise raucous over Caesar’s minor setback will be met at Philippi by ‘The People’s Tribune’ @Moolahheaven to be scourged.
What is this “source” providing you that you couldn’t have learned on your own? Inside info?
If I were you I would check out my post today…And by my I mean me not yours…
Senor Fly,
Your honesty in providing research, methodology and especially results in trades is greatly appreciated.
On many sites the Grand Poo-Bah runs from the truth. I am here for the truth.
Thank you
Republicat
Buying some marvell tech today and will watch it possibly go down a bit again on Monday. If so, I’ll buy more then. In about 4 months I’ll sell it for a good 15-20% gain.
if anyones looking into a short term position might want to check out GTAT.. not that it has to do with MRVL, but this stock is moving
“He’s served me well in the past, but will now become excommunicated from the House of Fly” Reference ZeroHedge: On a long enough timeline the survival rate of everyone drops to zero.