Before I get into the market, I want to recommend that you see a documentary called “Jiro Dreams of Sushi.” It’s not often that I watch documentaries or bother suggesting to my readers to watch one. But the message from this documentary is one worth remembering, which is: immerse yourself in your profession and become great at it. After years of practice, you will be respected in your profession, but only after you’ve paid your dues.
This is an incredibly important piece of wisdom for you punk kids out there, twenty-somethings who come here thinking you know the first thing about investing. You don’t know jack-shit because you are shit. Got that, pal?
I’ve been playing the market since the early 90′s and I still haven’t perfected my trait. I am constantly learning new tricks and my experiences teach me, often through the fire of losing, what to do under difference scenarios. You cannot learn that in a book or by some jackass at a prop trading desk. You have to earn your stripes through fire (losses). Dedicating yourself to this profession means living it day and night. It means you stay up real late to watch Asia trade and wake up real early to listen to Bloomberg radio for news and commentary.
You don’t take breaks and you never fall behind the curve.
The market is trading funny today, feigning weakness after an early morning spike. I do not think we will give back today’s gains. However, I do not think it’s safe to buy stocks here. If you were lucky enough to catch this wave, book the gain and move to cash. I am sensing this rally could extend into the bell. However, the problems plaguing the markets haven’t been resolved yet. The good news is Jackson Hole.
Should the Fed implement QE3, I am all in long. This market will run for 6 months straight, so don’t worry about catching the wave late. On the other hand, if the Fed opts to do nothing, again, prepare for lower prices.
My #1 tell for this market is the price action in TLT.