iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
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The Essence and Definition of Fucked

This was released by the USDA on 6/29/12. Pardon the tardiness of this report. However, considering the persistence of the “dust bowl” like drought plaguing farmers, I think it is extremely important to remember how leveraged and fucked these farmers are with their “bumper” sized corn crops.

U.S. Farmers Plant the Largest Corn Crop Since 1937

Washington, June 29, 2012 – U.S. farmers planted 96.4 million acres of corn, up 5 percent from last year, making it the highest corn acreage in the last 75 years, according to theAcreage report released today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). This marks the fourth year in a row of increases in corn acreage in the United States.

Favorable field conditions across much of the major corn-producing region helped corn growers get off to a fast start in 2012. By May 20, the planting was nearly complete, representing the quickest planting pace on record. Virtually all of the acreage had emerged by June 3.

U.S. soybean growers also reported a significant acreage increase this year. According to the report, 76.1 million acres have been planted to soybeans, up 1 percent from 2011. This is the third-largest soybean acreage on record.

Just as with corn, the weather allowed soybean growers to get off to a quick start this year. By June 3, ninety-four percent of this year’s crop was planted, 30 percentage points ahead of last year’s pace. Nearly 80 percent of the crop had also emerged by that time, 40 points ahead of the 2011 pace.

A significant acreage increase was also reported for wheat. The report showed that growers planted 56 million acres for all wheat, including spring, Durum and winter, a 3 percent increase from 2011. More acres were seeded to winter wheat this year due to expectations of better net returns compared with last year.

Unlike the other major crops, cotton growers reported a decrease in acreage this year. According to the report, there are 12.6 million acres planted to cotton, down 14 percent from 2011. Farmers planted 12.4 million acres of Upland cotton, down 14 percent from last year, and 235,000 acres of American Pima variety, 24 percent down from 2011.
NASS also released the quarterly Grain Stocks report today, showing corn stocks down 14 percent from June 2011, soybean stocks up 8 percent and all wheat stocks down 14 percent. With a total disappearance of 2.87 billion bushels between March and May of this year, this is the highest disappearance on record for corn during this quarter. The soybean disappearance of 707 million bushels is also the second largest disappearance on record.

Irrigation plays LNN and VMI are my favorite ways to play this, as well as MOS for fertilizer.
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50 comments

  1. Woodshedder

    First

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  2. halfbloodpope

    Wouldn’t buying irrigation systems now be like buying a better parachute after your have hit the ground?

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    • The Fly

      If farmers get bailed out, they will be mandated to update infrastructure in order to prevent this from happening again.

      They need better ways to manage their water supply.

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      • halfbloodpope

        Thanks Dr. Fly. I am ignorant to agricultural economy but this is my favorite part of investing, learning something new every day.

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      • texasradio

        Water supply management? For wheat and corn? Think they are going to irrigate all those millions of acres? Is it even remotely possible?

        The only water supply management going on is rain dances. And prayers.

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        • The Eye-Talian Stallion
          The Eye-Talian Stallion

          Correct and the cart is before the horse, the farmer has to find the water first in order to irrigate.

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  3. ChrisBrown

    Recently finished Pollan’s “The Omnivores Dilemma”. He spends time with the corn farmers and explains how screwed they really are. That was before this report.

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  4. elizamae

    How could anything go wrong being egregiously overlevered with no contingency plan?

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  5. FUCKGOLDMANSACKS
    FUCKGOLDMANSACKS

    UAN. RNF

    Good nite

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  6. RaginCajun

    Like that $MOS

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  7. UncleBuccs

    These guys really need to be growing hemp instead…

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  8. fishdog

    MOS is a fine fert company but while Phosphate and potash will be primary nutrients needed by farmer Brown, Nitrogen will be his biggest need by far. He will need truckloads of Nitrogen and wheelbarrows of potassium and Phosphate. They will use 4-6 lbs of nitrogen for each 1 lb of potash. See UAN, RNF,& TNH compared to POT and MOS which is odd as POT is one of the largest producers of nitrogen in the world but I guess the co name throws people off. Happy farming!

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  9. farmer

    You fucking Greenwich pussys don’t know jackshit about farming. Stick to what you know.

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    • MetalLeg

      I”m not from Greenwich but I do plant a few tomato and pepper plants in my yard. I know little about farming but I do know that water is essential.

      Am I correct?

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  10. discoordinated

    More reasons to like $POT http://alturl.com/qtu3h

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  11. Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.
    Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.

    —CONCUR IN PART—

    Farmers intentionally reporting (true) failures.

    2011 congressional stimulus repeal has consequences; mainly, farmers saying fuck you, your terms sunsetted son (aka congressboy). Please see $GIS (time for the Blind man to dump, will wait for near $40 – before middle East war this fall) and other ag. input relying industries.

    What the farmer giveth, the farmer taketh away.

    Never forget, farmers ARE NOT DUMB.

    I
    REPEAT

    …farmers are smarter than 95 percent of the readership here.

    That’s why you all enter into mortgages and slave away to pay the HOBOma and Al Gores of the world in taxes.

    Farmers are not ignorant.

    In a political year, this is no game.

    There is cause and effect, and remember that our farmers can cause middle east revolutions: (e.g. see) Middle East 2011.

    For the reasons above, and others omitted, I DISSENT.

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    • enlightened1.

      The finest GMO money can buy…

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      • Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.
        Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.

        I’d like to see some evidence of GMO.

        My personal farming (not a farmer, but from farming family) keeps producing great seeds: pumpkins, radishes, lettuce, wheat, corn… the list keeps going.

        It’s difficult to understand what the GMO conspiracy is all about. If you don’t get any corn cobs, you don’t got seeds.

        Paradox: what am I missing?

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      • Cascadian

        GMO’s hurt nobody. There is DNA in everything we eat.

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    • chuck bennett

      I love a good conspiracy. keep them coming.(no homo)

      regards

      chuck

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  12. Long Dong

    The shorts will have their cocks ripped from their sockets tomorrow.

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  13. moolahheaven

    Mr. Beaks has the Orange crop report…

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  14. SUBCOMANDANTE CHINCHINILLA!!!!!
    SUBCOMANDANTE CHINCHINILLA!!!!!

    We call it maize.

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  15. Trading_Nymph

    Mortal Kombat time, Clam vs Nymph and her sidekick the USD.

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  16. the man

    no, farmers will not be buying irrigation systems. one, they are too cheap, two, a drought happens once every 25 years and three it would drain the aquifer.

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    • Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.
      Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.

      water rights are regional. good points though.

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  17. the man

    why do you think farmers are so leveraged? I live in the corn belt and the majority of the land which has been sold over the past five years has been paid for in cash. This is very different from the 80’s.

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    • Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.
      Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.

      Yeah, farmers aren’t financiers, they’re the people keep America alive.

      Financiers; well, guillotine a majority in the sector and no dent.

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  18. the man

    one other thing: almost all farmers have crop insurance, you can insure up to 85% of the average yield.

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  19. the man

    that our farmers “feed the world” is another crock of shit. I hear that sanctimonious braying all the time. they feed animals and ethanol plants. they couldn’t care less about feeding anyone other than themselves and drooling over half million dollar combines at the JD dealership.

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    • Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.
      Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.

      Then I not so respectfully disagree with you.

      Until you have a state’s university Dean’s personal phone number in your cell, keep pontificating.

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      • the man

        oh my, the Dean’s personal phone number. If that is all you’ve got there need be no further discourse.

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        • Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.
          Sur Platonic Platueu Du Tecnocrats, B.R.A., D.J.D.

          I can tell you’re not a bad guy.

          So…,

          I’ll let you have your opinion.

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  20. Cascadian

    What % of all that ag land is irrigated?

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  21. vking

    “Farming looks mighty easy when your plow is a pencil and you’re a thousand miles from the corn field.”

    12-12-12

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  22. ruggyup

    Texasradio & Farmer got my attention. Yes, large irrigation systems are already in place like at sod farms. But the largest sod farms I’ve ever seen are not close the the acreage planted for mid-west crops. Without a fact or two besides the water supply, it’s like the lab rats who offer breaking up hurricanes by seeding them with cat litter. WTF

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  23. DEATH TO CNBC COCKSUCKERS
    DEATH TO CNBC COCKSUCKERS

    Bad clam….very very bad clam.

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  24. republikat

    Back to refining:
    ALJ solid winner on a meek day for other refiners

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  25. hitter

    Never have seen Chuck so specific on VHC (hinting lawsuit settlement). Ususally very circumspect on details.Is this dip a buy? Anyone concerned?

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  26. dave

    All the ethanol plants should go tits up. It is really silly to burn your food.

    Also, if a food crisis hits, your local Walmart may look like this.

    http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/401026/nicole-hernandez/2012-07-17/viral-video-jacksonville-wal-mart-scene-flash-mob

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  27. Dick Durban

    If all the farmers are going to go broke, dry up and blow away, how will they come up with the money to buy irrigation systems?

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