I want to clarify and crystallize some things for some of the newer readers of iBankCoin. I do not concern myself, whatsoever, with technical analysis. I do not believe in it, never have, never will. I manage a great deal of money, on behalf of very wealthy individuals. I do not consider my personal money to be “risk assets” and only play with a small portion of my net worth, which, incidentally, is likely 10x the size of your bullshit zeeco accounts.
Before I buy a stock, I make a decision as to the longevity of the trade and the amount of risk I am willing to accept. In same cases, I am only interested in 5-10%, upside or downside, in others I go for much more. I use algorithms to find “high probability” trades. But you must understand, it isn’t the holy grail. NOTHING is fool proof. Hence, the very term “high probability” suggests an outside chance that the trade could go wrong.
For example: I bought EXK a few days ago, thinking the stock had bottomed and was readying to bounce. However, when I saw the stock fail to move up, I knew there was something wrong with silver. Instead of cutting my losses, I made a conscious decision to buy more if my position got to -10%. The reason why I did that was because I had 40% cash and could afford to accept some risk. Plus anyway, I really like EXK down here. I’ve traded the stock over a dozen times and have never lost money in it.
Although I boast about the abilities of The PPT: NOTHING is full proof. It is a tool, a great tool, that allows me to not waste time. I didn’t build it for retail usage. I built it for my personal use only, then we opened it up to the public later on.
Some of you manage money and understand what I am talking about. However, the fucking lot of you are simply ignorant to my methods and would be better off sticking your dicks in a lions mouth than fucking with me.
I am generous and I am here to share ideas. But do not think for a second that you know more than me. Plainly, it’s laughable that you would presume to know anything at all. Hell, I bet half of you got to work this morning by being pushed inside of a shopping cart, or by way of skateboard.
Look, I don’t mean to be curt. I am really a very “nice guy”; and for the most part, my “battles”, whether real or “imaginative”, are yours. Having said that, I will track you down and punch your lips loose for getting in my way, even if it’s some small gratuitous comment– left in some half-drunken stupor. Data is being collected and the good folks at iBC are growing very rapidly, under the auspices of the Grande Recursive Order of the Knights of the Lambda Calculus.
You’ve been warned, YET AGAIN.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnOmOsQkyKE&feature=related
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I got 20’s on my shopping cart.
best they be spinning clockwise or you ain’t pimpin’
Only 20’s? Piker
Very good post sir dude fly…your real-to-ludicrous ratio is on point.
In other news, vanguard is going to bankrupt me via vgpmx….look at that shit.
Hell, I bet half of you got to work this morning by being pushed in a shopping cart…..LOL…it dont get any better!!
According to prophecy, many will be a day late and a dollar short
Nice points here Fly, funny how some think that their way is the only way. Its this form of close-minded mentality that shows the character of a person.
love your posts b/c you say whats on your mind and are unforgiving. but tech analysis has alot of proof…maybe start expanding a bit. we ARE going lower
I’ve managed to survive without it all these years.
enjoy the Stick-to-itiveness, and you have WAY more $$ than I…new skill never hurts. I quaded my port last yr (yes over 400%)…then half’ed it by being stupid and not letting emotion go. I’m trying desperately to get over that – still my most difficult task.
But fly, im sure you noticed the erect cock n balls formation on the daily close today?
LOL man, thats like a bulls eye comment …!
Sometimes I read this and feel as if you are directly beating me over the head with arrogance and get slightly bothered. Other times I think that you as just a simple family man with normal everyday issues like people kayaking down your flooded street. I suppose logically the real Fly falls somewhere in the middle.
And that’s where you are wrong, pal.
In terms of the butterFly or the bee?
>beating me over the head with arrogance
I cried one day reading this site, but I am beginning to realize “The Fly” loves his readers and wants them to prosper as he has…
We are going higher BABY way way higher!!
Fly, am I to read that you do not invest a lot of your personal wealth in the markets?
I spoke to an old retired money manager now in his 80s, and they way he looked at it was as follows. You income is tied to the market via fees/commission, your invested in the markets through stock purchase plan, and your pension is in the markets. To put your net disposable income in the markets is far too much exposure so he opted for CDs and such. Not a lot of return, but provided piece of mind and the ability to focus on managing money.
When the crisis hit in 07-09 I saw a lot of “big shooter” broker/money managers walking like zombies because a majority of their wealth was exposed to markets as described above.
Your thoughts?
Jimmy
That is correct. I have six figs invested in risk. But my income is tied to how well I perform. Therefore, it would be stupid of me to double dip. I have better places to park cash, such as orbital space cannon programs.
Wow, that’s really interesting. I had no idea. I have six figs in yelp alone but don’t depend on market for income in any way.
Well, I have 6 figs in YELP too.
six figs is a pretty wide range, isn’t it?
So glad I’m a simple man…js
Hope my Bitchez enjoyed the ramp today, got a little luv for U Dems after the big SCROTUM win today, (woo woo Bots gone wild)…now just get off my azz about that fat bastard whale over in Limeytown or your next Inside Info will be to buy $FB. Lookin at you Mr. Congressdork and Staff. Got it?
Gotta go, Chuckie Rangels and P Krugs bringing the ho’s over now.
Peace Out,
J Piddy Dimon
awesome.
Gawd, I love identity politics!
ah, now I get it .. your trades make much more sense in the reflection that you use fundamental approach. I mean I consider you a great trader from last year on, but once I saw keeping loosers and adding to it its just not my cup of tea, but if you have a long term fundamental view and risk management for sure it can be a kick ass strategy as markets are yet to be efficient in pricing and what technical traders jump on maybe totally wrong from fundamental perspective … I wanted to be a fundamental trader or at least a combination of the two but I just got myself burnt too many times to realize that I need deeper pockets to sit through volatility and longer time for my ideas to pan out, additionally I need to be much more knowledgeable since verification of technicals is quicker approve/reject while to test yourself as a fundamental trader takes more time specially if we talk about fx/global macro. Nevermind all the best, let the YELP be with you 😉 – which in I do not see value at all, which probably proves why Im not a fundamental trader
Fly,
Well said.
I feel stupid in that I cannot seem to find historical tech/hybrid scores within the PPT for individual names. Does it only exist for the S&P? For example, if I wanted to find the tech score for the SPY yesterday vs. today – where do I go? Or does it not exist?
Many thanks in advance.
Alvari
Click on historical scores. It’s there
My income is a function of the stock market as well but why not stick a portion of money in a low beta, stable dividend stock that’s correlated with inflation or commercial paper instead of money markets?
i doubt his main portfolio has no market exposure….he’s just not trading it.
Buy and hold for the restful night, baby.
A tale of two accounts:
I have a taxable account in which I trade aggressively, and a 401(k) in which I buy-and-forget. Both accounts have spent the first two quarters of the year with cash balances averaging around 20-40% of portfolio.
My YTD performance in each account is identical, but I spend a hell of a lot less time worrying about the fates of telecoms, utilities, and tobacconists, and they pay me between 3% and 5% to wait out the storm.
> I do not believe in it, never have, never will.
One of the greatest frauds ever perpetrated on the small time investor/trader. A bit like counting cards in blackjack, which is in fact mathematically sound, but in practical terms its true purpose has been to create a whole class of people who lose their money while thinking of themselves as “scientific.” Best thing that ever happened to casinos.
both probably worked at one time, but not so consistently anymore.
But, i think there is still some merit to technical trading, used in combination with other factors. The main one being an ability to innately understand the way the market currently interprets things (or, said differently, currently in vogue “correlations”).
Well said, Dr. Fly — a good idea for those whose incomes are tied to the market to park personal savings on the sidelines.
In my experience, brokers/money managers often trade their own accounts considerably worse than those they manage. When you spend your work day glued to Bloomberg, it is easy for the visceral, risk-taking instincts to be spurred by those flashing lights. Poor bets are usually the result. Also, these men are more likely to succumb to emotion and shit the bed in managed accounts during times of turmoil, knowing how much personal skin they have in the game.
Have you considered leasing out use of your Orbital Space Cannon (OSC) as a source of market-neutral revenue?
I think it’s currently on lease to $HAS. Might have some trouble with getting approval from the consumer product safety commission in time for Christmas, but that risk can be… managed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQmf_pRHOUM
For when you absolutely have to tolerate and love the shit out of something.
Gold and oil on a tear tonight…tomorrow should be good. I like my dirt cheap FCX, EXK, and TEX positions. I need a good bull run on these bitches into the 4th.
Huggie- I hope you make a shopping cart full of money tomorrow.
a bonanza for huggie!
hear! hear!
Asia up and futures up!
A fuck a YOU!
Charts only work with horseshoes and hand grenades. They are used to con ordinarily smart men into believing that they can beat the system. i.e. Doctors are the biggest suckers on planet earth.
where is that goofy bear hunt vid? we need it…
found it! how fuckin’ bizarre and wonderful! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytc0U2WAz4s
To be fair… it’s a very nice skateboard… all the other bohemians are rather jealous…
Fly – you think half go to work in shopping carts… You’re too kind – fewer than half have jobs