Averaging Down on DECK

The fucking analyst at Sterne Agee today downgraded DECK this morning, based upon weather, Nordstrom’s website and the fucking price of Sheepskin. He deduced from all of this
“the mania is over” and reduced his price target from $130 to $72. He hedged his incredibly aggressive call saying he does not expect Q4 numbers to be affected. Instead, he is looking for fire and brimstone in 2012.

Fuck that shit. This is a classic average down situation, as the company doesn’t report until February. More so, if the fucking weather get a bit colder next week, all of the asshole analysts will come out of the wood works, suggesting the cold weather trends bode well for DECK. I am using this dip to add to my position by 1/3rd. I will add another 3rd if it gets into the low $80’s.

The market looks okay early on. However, I am not getting excited until the rivers of cocaine are flowing again. Until I see Rick Ross on CNBC, handing out bank notes to the women on the NYSE, this rally is suspect.

Fucking suspect I say!

Nevertheless, I am long and staying that way, focused on GSVC, REDF, RBCN and this cocksucking DECK (for now). I also like LULU, MDR, TNA and DVR.

I have a lot of ideas who should receive the illustrious Asshat of the Year award. It could be Jon Corzine or Reed Hastings, HERMAN CAIN or any one at all. As a matter of fact, it could be you!

I declare that you must decide, despite your lack of cranial functions. Leave suggestions in the comments section and I will review them, whilst sipping on my overflowing mug of Earl Grey.

There is so much to talk about when reflecting on the bullshit that was 2011. For me, it was incredibly hard to make “high percentage” trades. It was a year that surprised me, as the unexpected and surreal replaced the normal, easy trades. Without a doubt, if you weren’t nimble, you lost a tremendous amount of money.

Because of the extreme volatility, I suspended my options account, since it proved to be an exercise in futility. The very essence of momentum was disrespected over and over again by rumors and rumors of rumors, purported by viagra addled bureaucrats dressed in ugly suits–hellbent on interfering in capital markets.

Following one monster year after another, from 2005-2010, I will be lucky to close out 2011 with a +10% gain. However, if there is one thing I did exceedingly well this year it was controlling losses. I’ve had my MOTR boats and unlucky endeavors in VXX and certain nefarious dealings with Chinese burritos. But my yearly range has remained tight, between -5% to +15%. At the very depth of 2011, I was off by just 8%. I held the course and successfully navigated my way back to profitability. But the cost was great, purely from a quality of life point of view.

Like many of you, the volatility emanating out of Europe has led to constant uneasiness, sleepless nights, vacations that entailed 10 hour work days, and a perpetual state of mania that has resulted in numerous trading mishaps. There has been no clear direction or thesis to fall back on. A few months ago I endeavored to park cash in food stocks and laid the ground work for capital infusions into 10 companies. Luckily I never mustered up the confidence to invest because two of those stocks were TEA and DMND, both horrendous losers.

Once again, we had to deal with the typical Wall Street corruption that we’ve all grown to expect and love, which of course goes entirely unpunished. Jon Corzine and his fucking beard lost a bunch of money, fucking MF Global and its clients. As usual, Congress will call hearings and promise to “investigate.” But they will never prosecute “one of their own.”

We learned that our beloved elected officials have been profiting from insider trading, which is legal for them. This is the Roman Senate and no one seems to give a shit. There is one group of degenerate animals who got mad in 2011 and that was the Occupy Wall Street crowd. But what was their demand? These filthy idiots want us to give the corrupt government even more power. Ha! In other words, they feel the way to help America is to give more money to the cocksuckers who conduct themselves with the most undistinguished dishonor the American people have ever seen, the same people who gladly sellout the American worker and expedite the greatest transfer of wealth, from west to east, the world has ever seen. They want to do this by taking my money and literally giving it to union chiefs who in turn will make political donations to the democratic party. No thank you and fuck you very much.

This was also the year the proverbial chickens came home to roost. All of the excess and waste that led to giant European debt loads was firmly rejected in the debt markets this year. As a result, the continent teeters on financial disaster. I suspect, the chickens will die in 2012, leading to a finale of sorts, a conclusion if you will, to the drama we see playing out here on a daily basis.

There are days when I question whether I want to be in this business. In so many ways, I don’t need this shit. But I love it and would not know what to do with myself without it. The truth is, as many of you know, it’s real easy to hate something when you suck at it. Well, by my standards, in 2011, I sucked. For all of the research and long hours that I dedicate to this trade, I expect to outperform by grotesque proportions. All of my big thesis trades flopped, with exception to one sweet run in the refiners.

I can’t keep dodging bullets like this– because eventually one is going to hit me between the eyes.

Here I am at 11pm, penning this article, worrying about Italian 10 year yields, reflecting on my failures. I have a great book waiting to be read in the bedroom and a hot cup of Earl Grey tea right next to it. In many respects, I’ve made my bed already. Now I’m gonna go lie in it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vVS3wE5KVg&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqovTGjYjM4&feature=player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNXd0qbpln0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJxkrXdPM-8

Fuck you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyTKPHQwDe8

Reflecting back on 2011, I want to punch calendars in the face. As of right now, as you read this, “The Fly” is losing coin. In a way, you can say I’ve squandered my recent successes via holding onto my hopium pipe. I smoke from this pipe and make outrageous declarations, while in robe, from my balcony. My neighbors ask me to tone it down and I retort by firing my bedroom cannon at them. The recoil from the battery nicks my furniture, pissing Mrs. Fly the fuck off.

I am in this war alone. Most of the people I know do stupid shit, like defend criminals in court or sell drugs through fancy offices. Wall Street is besmirched by the media and “main street” as an evil group of people doing fucked up shit to the economy while everyone sleeps. The truth of the matter is, it is YOU, main street, who fuck everything up, via your votes and spending patterns. You are degenerates, unable to manage a purse, let alone a $15 trillion economy.

You borrowed money from banks then walked away from your obligations when the value of your home went lower. Well, fuck me running sideways. I’d like to “walk away” from my LULU and RBCN investments and just forget about the whole ordeal. Oh, Mr. Congressmen, can I please just walk away from it and sue Morgan Stanley for recommending those stocks? You see, I’m a fucking idiot and I believed what the smart folks at Morgan said. I’d like my money back and another $500,000 for pain and suffering.

You cocksuckers on Main Street are a DISGRACE to the world. I see you little pigmies and I know how you think. While the apparatus on Wall Street is not perfect, we are leagues smarter than the fucktard who makes widgets in Somedumbfuck, Michigan.

Naturally out Prezident backs the zeroes because he’s never been a boss. It’s populism rum amuck and you’re all gonna pay for it, dearly, when your bullshit 401k plans hit zero.

Gold is now the #1 source of funds for everyone in need of cash. From hedge funds to Merrill Lynch all the way down to Dennis Gartman, gold is being sold with reckless abandon. More importantly, central banks own a shit load of gold. Would you be surprised to learn Italy sold gold in order to raise cash? Silver is nothing more than a levered version of gold. Hence, the move lower is extreme.

What’s very important to note is the fact that gold is no longer acting defensive. The Federal Reserve wants gold to trade lower and fast. They do not want GLD competing with TLT for scared money. Nevertheless, the drop in commodities is scaring the shit out of people. Whenever it happens, people attribute the drop to “slowing in China.” I give up trying to get a handle on China. One week they are slowing, the next things have never been better.

If you believe the Europeans will let everything collapse, short term, gold is a sell. If you believe they will print, this is a buying opportunity.

In my opinion, this is capitulation. Every fucktard with a series 7 or Zeeco trading account is selling gold now. I do not like to travel with the herd. So, naturally, I think these fucking idiots are wrong. But my risk appetite is nil. I am 75% invested and have reserved my cash for lower prices. If and when the market gets into my comfort zone, I will take a shot at some miners, like RGLD, EXK or AG. But remember, liquidation trades are volatile and the market is filled with the biggest fucking idiots the world has ever known.

In an unbelievable twist of events, following the abrupt cancelation of Thanksgiving, Christmas has been tossed aside too. The devil himself is inside of Germany and he is hell bent on an unseemly outcome to the debt crisis. The Italian yields are hardly moving this morning and Spanish yields are lower. But things do not look good. The euro is sinking again and European markets are in plunge mode.

At this point, it seems inevitable, taking Germany’s word at face value, there will be a monstrous European default. Italy needs to refinance over $300 billion in debt in 2012 and they have a big one coming up in late January. I think the Germans did the numbers and will prepare for default, instead of printing euros. Whether they are right or wrong is immaterial to me. The fact is, there is extreme downside risk to this tape.

At the same time, there are too many euro shorts. Remember when everyone was short dollars? Just about everyone I know is short euros or believes it is going lower. It is, in many ways, setting up to be the perfect short squeeze. Moreover, the market itself is close to oversold levels again and all we need is a rumor to get things going higher again. Do not think it can’t happen, ’cause it’s been happening all fucking year long.

In summary, I cannot be more bearish for 2012. Although I am still long by 75% and waiting for an end of year rally, my heart isn’t in it. I like when the market goes up, frankly, because it defies logic and reason. Bulls are very irrational and make me laugh. There is nothing like a 500 point rally off utter horse shit. The bears get all worked up, losing limbs along the way, and I find that to be the pinnacle of humor. But the fun is about to end and my job is about to get a lot harder. I’m afraid of getting tossed into a lit fireplace during one of my dip buying ventures. This is the year of the fucking train wreck. Gold and silver are now ceding to deflationary pressures coming out of Europe. The inflation trade is dead and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it.

Imagine the stock market is a giant rubberband. The short sellers are pushing it all the way back, hoping to snap it and destroy the band. However, the band is very strong and shits on people like you daily. It rarely breaks. As a matter of fact, the band has only snapped a handful of times in over 100 years. More often than not, the band snaps back and catapults the shorts into muddy pits filled with alligators.

It’s true the euro is tanking and Europe is scary. For the most part, the US economy has held firm, allowing US debt to become a safe haven–also a net positive for gluttonous Americans. The question at hand is, how stretched is the rubberband right now? After all, let’s be honest with one another, this market doesn’t want to trade lower. So many leaders have been shot, yet the Dow is saddling 12,000.

In my estimation, fundamentals and technicals are now secondary to mean reversion in this market. Meaning: when levels get stretched, on both the long and short side, that is your most reliable tool when deciding to buy or sell. It sounds simple; but it really isn’t.

We remain in an oversold tape. As of right now, these levels are not woefully oversold, as investors liquidate positions thanks to the decline in the euro. We will get to an extreme oversold point soon and that will be an occasion to buy. When that time comes, most of you will be commenting shit on the zerohedge blog, rooting for black smoke. But you will be mistaken, yet again.

There is an algorithm, gentlemen, that is deciding the direction of this market and I have possession of it. It’s a woefully dangerous tape to navigate and the moves are extreme. No one would blame you if you chose to play it small, leaving the majority of your assets in cash. This is end of the year bullshit and the stakes have never been higher.

For now, I remain 75% long, with 5% ready to allocate into current positions at the right time.

NOTE: I shed 2% today.

NOTE 2: Happy birthday Ben Bernanke.

Italian yields are up and the Euro is getting punched in the face. As a result, this rally is being sold. It could come back. After all, it is Ben Bernanke’s birthday and today is Fed day. However, the market looks like shit.

I had nice gains this morning and now they’re all gone. Should we continue to weaken, I stand to lose a great deal of money. I am calling in all favours here, demanding my Voodoo Physician make the sacrifices needed to switch the momentum hammer back into my corner.

It’s all relative, frankly, Easy come and easy go. There isn’t a chance in cold hell for this market to trend higher while the euro dives.

Honestly, I am quite shocked that we are still up.

In other news, Iran is playing with their speedboats in the straights of Hormuz. Do they really think our aircraft carriers will allow them to close it? Come on.