Late Night Technical Analysis: The Dollar

Notice how the punch buggy is racing for the trembling face. Coupled with the “cock and balls” formation, the dollar is sure to slide lower. Keep in mind, the dollar was UP last year. For those of you who are basing their “dollar assumptions” simply by looking at a chart, you are doing yourself a grave disservice. The “fun” hasn’t even started yet. The move lower in precious metals is not a tell, but a symptom of asset allocation rotation.

BEHOLD:

“The Trembling Face” formation is upon us (note: this will auction at Sotheby’s next week. Starting bid: 400,000 euros)

Ahead of tomorrow’s Fed meeting, expect the market to trade flat. But as sure as I am sitting here, we will be trading up before the week is done.  There is lots of pent up demand for equities being stifled by this vague uncertainty. The bears are ball-less and without honor. It’s only a matter of time when giant anvils drop on their fucking heads from the clouds. Speaking of which, I am not a buyer of the cloud computing space, including FFIV, VMW, CRM, on this dip. I fucking hate those stocks.

However, I do like the semis, namely AMKR and CRUS, based upon the idea of trickle down economics, emanating from the Godly folks over at INTC and their aircraft carrier sized cap ex budget.

Based upon the sublime harmony of mathematical precision aka The PPT, I stepped in and bought a large amount of EXK today, near the lows. Going with that theme, I bought some AGQ too.

Some of my black stocks included TEVA, OPEN, GTE, EXK and FORM. As of 3:35 pm, I am down a little more than 0.1% for the day, putting my YTD loss at  00.00%—nothing. Over the next few weeks, I intend to out-hustle and work all of you fat fuckers. I intend to make a great deal of money and give nothing back in return.

I’m gonna throw a freebie out to you dogs out here, not so much different than rich folks handing out turkeys to the homeless on Christmas. The PPT is flagging ZSL OVERBOUGHT here and you need to pay attention. Over the past 9 times PPT has flagged it OVERBOUGHT, it traded lower 77% of the time over 1 day and 100% of the time over 10. The 10 day loss, on average, is 15%.

I am not a precious metals type of guy, as I believe they are stupid. However, at a minimum, be very careful with shorting this sector. To play a bounce, I like EXK, AGQ, EGO or TCK.

Aside from all of that shit, I am biding my time here, sort of fucking around doing nothing. My job demands that I do nothing, so from time to time I adhere to the rules.

Look for a late day rally and a surge in the shares of BORN, just because.

UPDATE: I bought 50,000 EXK

Some strange guy has decided to print money, like Mickey Bucks at Disney, in order to precipitate inflation, so that poor fuckers pay up at the grocery store and the pump. If you look very closely, this strange man has accomplished his goals of reflating, much to the detriment of the American lower echelon.  The unfortunate side effect of his policies is the complete and absolute insolvency of the Federal Reserve.

When the Fed starts selling treasuries, in order to contract money supply, they will realize idiot sized losses. This whole fiasco will end when Congress bails out the Fed. It will be the ultimate bailout. Because of these realities, it is my belief that Bernanke doesn’t have the balls to stop inflating. The higher yields go, the bigger his loss. The bigger his loss, the more he prints. The more he prints, the higher stocks go, and so on and so forth.

Do not confuse the sudden weakness in gold/silver as some sort of sign that the dollar is going to rip higher. That’s ridiculous. The tail doesn’t bite people in the face, the head does. I believe this is nothing more or less than an asset allocation adjustment by the money management community. Like I said in late 2010, people sat on massive profits and opted to realize said profits in 2011, instead of 2010, for tax reasons. Gold and silver will rebound in February.

At the present, I am about 20-25% cash, which is more than double my typical amount. Should stocks sell off, I will buy the dip. I will buy it will great energy and tenacity. I will spit on your triple inverse ETF’s and piss on your heads.

The Fed has my back, pal. Who has yours?

Correction over. Any questions?

Class dismissed.

Today’s winner: BORN

I added to my BORN position and started new ones in AMKR and CRUS.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, the next time you play a game of baseball, you will tear a hammy. And, you will lose money.

I had to sell both MOTR and SFLY, even though I didn’t want to. Since my infamous VXX beheading, I made a pledge to cut losses quickly. In this case, I booked a 20 and 10% loss, without a blink of an eye. They were the wrong stocks at the wrong time. I can make it back, AND MORE, in other names.

Right now I am 33% cash and building. I think it’s time to slow things down a bit and closely examine my next investments. For the past few months, I’ve been gun-slinging, shooting people in the face for telling me the wrong time. So, I am going back to the well for new names, a fresh start.

Inside of The PPT, I posted the seasonality report for February. Basically, there is a strong emphasis on precious metals and ag. I want to be long gold, silver and farm shit, into February. Hence the large position in TEX, another February seasonality favorite. Do not misconstrue, I am not basing my investment decisions on the past performances of said names. Instead, I am using this data to point me in the right direction.

Moreover, I have a keen interest in squeezing the lemons out of some of those Chinese stock short sellers. They are as full of shit as the companies they are targeting. My favorite squeeze play is BORN.

Finally, I am glad to see the market trending higher, making the bears look like silly Japanese school girls. However, lots of 2010 leadership names are down quite a bit. There is sector rotation taking place and I intend to rotate before most of you coffin stuffers.

Good day.

I added to my TEX position, already my largest, low $31’s.

NOTE: Over the last 20 years, TEX has been up 16 in February for an average return of 6%+.

I sold out of the fucking MOTR boat, taking blades to the face aka 20% loss. And, I stopped out of SFLY for a 10% loss.

Cash position is  30%+.

I get the feeling this market is about to chop people into tiny little pieces. Had you hedged last week, via SCO, FAZ or SRS, you lost money. If you were long big cap leadership names, you lost money. It seems we are entering “the uncertainty zone,” where people fuck themselves inside of meatgrinders.

You can try to avoid the meatgrinder, by way of larger than life cash positions. However, you will be lured back into stocks, because they’re so fucking cool—effectively fucking yourselves again. I am starting to hate stocks again. I notice my sensibilities get offended very easily when the tape gets hard. Like a spoiled brat, I like to make money and do so  with EXTREME REGULARITY.

Do not question my decision to WRITE IN CAPS, out of nowhere. I am NOT OBLIGATED to ANNOUNCE when I will write in caps, for this is my website and you are NOTHING more than a “reader.”

Playing this tape is equal to eating some sushi with tonnes of wasabi on it. It’s a spicy taste.

As I sit here, gawking at my 60 inch sammy, watching the fucktards on CNBC, I am reminded of how stupid this business is and how much I hate it. If I could make $3 million per year killing people, I would do that instead. However, sadly enough, there are no jobs on the fucking market now, willing to pay me $3 million per year, so I am stuck doing this shit.

In closing, I’d give you some picks if I was sure about the direction, but I’m not. I want the market to go up, in order to smash idiot bears to pieces. But, by the looks of pre-market activity, this market may trend lower today.

Pray to God and other mystical beings that “The Bearded Clam” bails us out today, as he is apt to do when we least expect it.