Rumor has it S&P is setting up to downgrade France over the next two weeks. However, yields are dropping in France and our markets are edging higher. Basically, longs are pissing on the heads of shorts.
In case you were wondering the extent of the carnage within the banks, FAS (3x upside bank ETF) is the worst performing ETF over the past month– down 34%. Surprisingly, EDC (3x upside emerging markets) is the second worst performing ETF, down over 32%. XIV (inverse volatility) rings in at -29% and ERX (3x upside oil stocks) is down 27%, over the course of the past month.
On the internet, everyone likes to talk shit. We’re all heroes and everyone is a millionaire. However, I know many of you are down for the year, even though you won’t admit it. I see the carnage in my world, first hand, through accounts that are self directed. Do not beat yourself up over losses. This has been a very tricky market. I’ve been fucked all year round, vacillating between gains and losses, despite my calculator brain. Ask yourself, if space alien magicians can’t make money in this tape, how can I?
Precisely.
Many of you do not stand a chance. Your brains are simply too small and your DNA holds you back from seeing through the forest. Hang in there and be patient. Soon enough, this market will get easy, enabling retards to morph into geniuses.
Over the past month, some mega cap stocks have performed well, like EL, LOW, SNP and VRX. But I am not interested in that shit. I like mean-reversion. Meaning: I want to own what others are selling, mainly because they are jackasses and wrong. On the other end other mega cap spectrum is LYG, BAC, MS, SLF, ING, C, CS, IBN, SLT, NMR, DB, MT, MFC and RIG–all down more than 22% over the past month. That’s a hard basket to own and Cramer is looking for DEFCON 3 in the financials. I am not going to buy them; but I am not scared of them at these levels. Hidden in that mix is MT. That might be a buy, as well as SLT.
STAY AWAY FROM RIG. Those fuckers are a mess. They are selling shares after buying the shit out of their own stock at much higher prices. They are, without a doubt, in crisis mode–just like NFLX.
Bottom line: the market seems to want higher. I am not giddy and do not have the right to brag just yet. But the action is definitely encouraging.
NOTE: Iran raided a British embassy. Oil works here and the WTI-Brent spread should widen, putting the refiners back in play.
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It has been one hell of a year, but as always with iBankCoin, I’m here to learn and your, chess, jake, cain, and shed are invaluable parts of my daily research.
Overall: TFSA down YTD – August Dervivatives exposure (Think Fly Aggressive account). RRSP(much much larger, conservative and risk managed) up YTD.
I may be down for the year, but my current list assures mega-gains over then next few months!
I’m down 8% ytd. A number I can live with.
[That was meant with a sarcastic, poking fun at myself kind of tone.]
My staying in cash almost all the time helps me to not be down for the year. Of course it helps me to not be up for the year either. This is a cash type year for the not-so-quick investor if I ever saw one.
No question oil is going higher right now, but I don’t get why. Europe already sanctioned the shit out of Iran, cutting off the oil flow. That should have been priced in.
Maybe the market just didn’t believe them the first time?
It’s coming. Iran.
Iran holds the ultimate trump card in global oil affairs. They know, we know, that the first move Iran will make to fuck the world, if provoked, is to mine the straight of hormuz, shutting down oil and NG sea traffic from UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi, Bahrain, Qatar. They are more than capable to do this and will not hesitate. The world oil shock will obviously be severe if this were to happen.
i might be down,but i’m not out……….yet. oy
this year Blows.
Euro dollar has the look…
needs to rip NOW!
Well articulated Mr. Fly.
Fly,
Any thoughts on AKS?
Down 4% for the year.
Half in-half out of the market. Need to go lower for me to commit strongly to names on my watch list.
I still think we go much lower, but I am open to being wrong.
In this stage of my game I am more interested in the return of my capital than in the return on my capital.
It was different when I was younger.
Thanks for the post Fly. It makes me feel better to know that someone as good at this stuff as you is having a tough time of it too. I’m down slightly now, but hope to at lest break even. It would be even better if I could cover what I and Mrs. 50 spent, which would mean I’d have to get another 10% before years end.
I’m so fucked for the year and now they’re saying my main short RIMM, is the next Apple? What a joke.
.
ADDING (ie. averaging down) to my TYP (SHORT) position here ! fwiw
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GDX An H&S pattern has formed now with a head at 66 and neck line at 52. This targets 38 should the neck line fail. The 20 week MA managed to move above the 50 MA providing the gold miner bulls hope for further upside. Watch this 20/50 MA cross like a hawk.,
The gold daily chart is building a triangle out sideways with price staying within the boundaries. A move will occur out of this triangle and the move should equal the length of the veritical side, say 350 points. Thus, a move favoring bulls out the top at 1770 would taget 2120, interestingly, the 2200-2400 area is the inflation-adjusted high from years ago. A move out the bottom at 1680 favoring gold bears would target 1330. The importance of the coming break out move cannot be overstated.
If you are long S&P 1209 is a good point to take profit or exit your longs. 1209 will be very strong resistance and there is no point in chasing more upside beyond this point unless clear news about a plan to deal with Europe is put forward. I will be placing my shorts shortly….I will be playing ZSL, TVIX, EDZ.
Descending triangles are every where from SLV to AUD/USD to DJI….A big move is coming and I think is down (if the move is up with no plan behind it I will be very suspicious of it –> Fake or insider trading)
fly-
i have a question thats not related to this post at all but im still curious: everytime i watch tv (which is bad for ya, I know, but i watch it bc its so damn pathetic, like watching a house burn down i cant turn away) i see these damn, “go to shitty college123.com TODAY and get educated! BLAH BLAH BLAH.” They’re the most blatant bucketshop bullshit commercials- it reminds me of all those crappy credit card and real estate commercials from before 07-08. So basically im asking, is there some kinda CDS hocus-pocus, crap i dont understand going on with student loans thats causing a bubble in this area, or am i just imagining things? The way the job market is, ppl may start to say no to college, or just not pay loans back. Would that have any effect on the financial system like the mortgage bust or am i just retarded….?
People go there for “free” (on student loans) The “colleges” qualify the student for student loans, the tuition gets paid, the college gets paid. The student “graduates”, there are no jobs despite their “excellent” placement office, and the former student owes a bunch of $ for the student loan.
yeah its such blatant… like pump and dump churning, bucket shop BULLLLSHIT, but the thing is it seems like its EXPLODING (the commercials). BUBBLE???
Student loans were subsidized by government guarantees but now the federal government has taken over the student loan business to include all issuance (www.nytimes.com/2010/03/26/us/politics/26loans.html)they have the power to forgive and put caps on paybacks. The administration is attempting to put a wage adjusted cap (10%) on repayment over a 20 year life span. Student loan debt is sitting at about $1 trillion but the current rules forbid forgiveness and can actually carry on to your heirs/co-signers
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