We are oversold. I cannot eschew a risk off position following a two day 600 point decline. I will milk the upside, then step aside. However, it’s worth noting, Italian and Spanish yields are moving higher. And, surprisingly, both French and German yields are spiking today.
But, let’s be clear, US yields are spiking too. So, I think it’s fair to say the rise in German, French and US yields is simply a consequence of “risk on” in equity markets.
The Greek situation is a nightmare. What the EZ needs to do is ring fence Italy and Spain. If they can do that, while tossing Greece into the Mediterranean, the sovereign debt crisis will subside. These debt laden governments cannot function if the cost of capital keeps rising. Italian 10 yr yields need to be south of 6% soon, else investors are going to freak the fuck out and equity markets will crash.
One way or another, policy makers will inflate. They’ve decided to extend and pretend a long time ago. The main beneficiary of rapidly depreciating fiat currencies is gold/silver. For a long time, I’ve resisted the notion that gold/silver was a safe haven because “I can’t buy anything with gold.” Platitudes gets you nowhere. This is about preservation of capital and asset allocation. If the belief is Euros and Dollars aren’t safe, people with big money will need to transfer to hard assets.
There are several obvious choices: art and collectables, real estate, wine, stocks or gold/silver. The problem with stocks is they are tied to economic output. Art and other collectibles are great, but illiquid. Suffice to say, gold and silver is where the money will flow, indefinitely.
Top picks: EXK, AG, RENN
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What about DBP?
Ardbeg 10 is the new Macallan
Maybe so but, some say there is a bit of wet dog aroma in the nose test. Laphroaig 10 still a tough act to follow. It’s a personal thing.
I mean, the U.S. 10 year is yielding more today than yesterday, but less than five days ago it was trading at 2.4%.
I wonder how much a can of Spam will go for in the Clam’s brave, new world? $30? $40?
Oil could benefit more than pm’s due to its practicality. But at what price does the consequence outweigh the reward? Oil went to 140 in ’08 before coming in, despite lower household income. Here at 90 , if inflation is your trade, take a look at the black gold
I’d like to punch out the faces of those who use the word “coming in” as a synonmy for GOING DOWN.
Apparently they teach those in the securities and commodities businesses to NEVER use the word “down”.
And it is no surprise that the word “off” when said quickly sounds like “up”.
Call it whatever you want, I don’t give a fuck
He makes a good point. Saying “coming in” should be a capital offense.
You’ve used it before..
Now comment on my original post
You have no proof.
Bet!
You’d like to but you can’t, because you’re a fucking pussy. Right?
no agq.it’s ready for liftoff.
Can you lay out your logic on why you think RENN has good value right now?
no
No as in your unable, or no as in you have no logic? Is “The Fly” recklessly flinging money at the China markets wearing a Jackie Chan t-shirt?
I hope people don’t listen to you just because they think you know more them. No reasoning=no credibility
BANNED!!!
Having a blast today with GLUU. Shorts look very vulnerable.
Boo Ya ! Fly’s logic for RENN is the same as his logic for OPEN and FORM over the past couple of months…Boo Ya !
My money is invested in the best collectible of all. I believe the future is in storage facility contents.
YUUUUUUUP!
Cock and Hammer formation on the 2hr sp chart
I was at the Cgristie’s auction last evening……art is really not the place
to be currently
Who called NUGT yesterday? Was it Jake? Nice going.
When speaking of JEF and not referring to Jefferson Reserve it is a mistake period. There is no other JEF of consequence
someone is dumping GSVC. They will be sorry.
GSVC bought Groupon with a market cap of $16Billion and IPO looks like $11 Billion.
Books are expected to close on Thursday for Groupon’s IPO, which has an indicative price range that values the company at $10.1 billion to $11.3 billion.
There is talk that Groupon may nudge the IPO price higher, but it is unlikely to go anywhere near the value of close to $20 billion that the company fetched in the secondary market this summer.
That’s bad news for investors such as GSV Capital Corp , an investment fund run by Michael Moe that bought Groupon shares in the secondary market in August at an implied valuation of $16 billion.
If Groupon shares do not rise to near that figure after they start trading on Nasdaq, GSV will have to eventually write down the investment to reflect the decline in value, Moe said.
“It does speak to the pluses and minuses of participating in private shares,” Moe told Reuters. “Our calculations haven’t changed, but market sentiment changed in August and September and there were some specific problems with Groupon.”
At least wine is consumable if all hell breaks loose in 2012 (EOTW).
My island, and its company, between Nova Scotia and Norway, will gladly accept payment in wine.
JFYI.
While no sales of parcels are guaranteed, leases long enough to survive half life are still on the market.
Actually our French OAT(real term for French Bond) popped up, but has been trending down since that early morning pop. Just like this market will be when Nymph and her sidekick the US Dollar do all Mortal Kombat on the Clam today.
Still waiting ….
TLT and UUP seem are either signalling an end to this quick rally or a head fake, but currently they don’t seem to be pointing to a higher close than where we are now.
I am staying very light.
Going way out on a line here:
I say by the end of the day, we sell off.
Fly, There is another issue w/ stocks. Recent volatility and questionable growth has pension consultants steering their clients out of equities at an alarming rate. We are seeing BIG moves out of equities and into real estate and as you stated alternative investments. Outflows, or more aptly lack of inflows isn’t going to get us a non-robot controlled market anytime soon. Which of course means without real institutional volume, algo’s control the tide.
I am seeing a similar movement back into real estate. Too soon. Real estate will take another turn for the worse Jan/feb. Real estate shorts are hurting, will reenter shorts mid January.
Dick – Pensions are looking long(er) term. They don’t care about 6 mos or 1 year or 3 years from now. The consultants clients aren’t chart readers or have any idea what the FAZ or FAS is. They just sit on a pension board.
Anyway, $$managers who run real estate driven portfolios are getting good face time with the right people.
The point is they are moving away from equities.
I see faz nearing green by the eod. If not tmrw big down day for s&p
Congrats Fly on your NFLX position so far.
Wine, that’s a great and liquid asset.