Okay, I’ve been thinking about the morbid absurdity that is Greece and have concluded this whole drama is staged, conducted by the clever German and French bureaucrats. Think about it. They cannot save Greece and Greece needs to get the fuck out of the EZ, else there will be a popular uprising in Athens. So, they showed a “best efforts” attempt to “save” Greece, but really told Papandreou to fuck off. Instead of kicking Greece out of the EU, the clever political hacks will make it look democratic via popular referendum vote AGAINST the EFSF by the Greek people.
The EFSF is very much real. However, it will be used to ring fence Italy and Spain, before their yields blow out.
The most likely scenario is as follows:
The markets trade in a volatile range to reflect the uncertainty of the Greek vote, which is ridiculous because we all know the outcome. When Greece opts out of the EU on 12/4 via failed referendum and files for bankruptcy, markets will SOAR–just in time for X-mas.
Why?
Because, believe it or not, the market wants Greece the fuck out of the EU. The haircuts will be severe, upwards of 70%. However, this will coincide with the official denigration of the euro via quantitative easing. The EU will print money and paper over everything.
In summary, the Germans and the French bought themselves time by pretending to bail out Greece. Markets stopped plunging and they soared, until recently. As we speak they are planning for the Greek bankruptcy and how to paper over the losses.
I don’t believe, not even for a second, the Greek Prime Minister sought out his conscience via unnecessary and unwarranted plebiscite– after so many months of drama. He wouldn’t do that to the French and German leaders, who put their cocks on the line (Merkel included)–no fucking way.
In short, they are still in control and will surprise everyone with their next big bazooka. My plan is to remain long VXX because volatility will reign supreme. Also, I will continue to buy silver and gold miners until they make up 35% of assets. Right now, they stand at 20%.
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FIG
I am sick of these damn Eurocrats! Are you going to short asset managers now? Thanks Mr. Fly!
Great post. December 4th seems like a long ways from here…Are the Turkey Gods blessing us this year?
Even if this is what’s going on, then doesn’t Portugal become the new Greece? What’s the plan for them?
portugal, it is of no import.
they get booted.
Good insights Le Fly.
I agree, Greece is dead, and everyone knows it.
Really, though, it’s Italy that is freaking everyone out. What are the mechanics of this such that it will save Italy? I mean, they are buying ITralian bonds, and yet they are getting extreme in yield.
I don’t see the end game here where they stop that?
No way the Euro zone can back stop Italy or Portugal. Lord help ’em if they have to try to save both. It can’t happen.
Excellent theory, but it only works after everything is privatized and bot for pennies on the dollar.
Why bring anyone into the Euro unless you can control or own them.
If Greece were to go of the way Iceland did then you have ultimate destruction of the Euro.
Creation of the Euro was meant for much more than trading power among EU nations.
Certainly it was not created to be destroyed.
Italian yields will blow out more, making it cheaper for the EZ to buy Italian bonds.
Greek bonds were cheap to… Getting cheaper. Irish, Portuguese, Spanish – on and on.
I would never challenge your investment thesis, but this is political, and unless silence from Merkel and a big Fuck You from Sarkooooz are part of the immediate drama, I don’t think this is scripted. I think Papa-G was told to do it by his own party: referendum or we dump you.
The country can’t survive the austerity – they’re too fat to change the channel. Same with Italy. Spain – don’t even go there with their youth unemployment: one charismatic leader and POOF, start reading for Whom the Bell Tolls.
The EU was not formed to serve the Euro. The Euro served the purpose of removing sovereign, independent currencies. The way the Lisbon Treaty (the EU Constition that over-rides each separate EU member Constitution) was forced down the throats of EU countries says it all.
The creation of the EU was about destroying the independence of nation states, and putting them under the control of a single govt/central banker entity.
The EU structure will never go away. The Euro is disposable, however. Especially if it serves the purpose of further eroding individual EU member sovereignty.
To better understand the goals, follow the United Nations and its long-term goals as outlined under UN Agenda 21. Remember that tho two financial arms of the UN are the IMF and World Bank, both privately owned.
Greece IS the distraction, you’re so right! But Italy is done. And thus so is France. French banks have been selling treasuries to stay liquid. You think MF is the only bank with exposure to euro bonds? And don’t forget PrimeX and Benny’s forecast today.
Burlap itches.
Eventually, I agree with you. But I don’t think it will happen now.
Jeffries just got downgraded.
Who just downgraded Jefferies…The night janitor?…Good stuff
I guess it was. HALTED.
Excellent analysis. Thanks.
Did you mean “conscience” in your antepenultimate paragraph?
wow, le flea has abandoned warren buffet tactics and has gone jake gint on us
8)
the illuminati staged the whole thing
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/esp_sociopol_illuminati.htm#menu
I don’t care for the ill, the loomed, or the naughty one damn bit… Although I do like my women naughty!
And the braindead pawns helped ensure it actually happened.
I must confess that Herman Cain also made impermissible and suggestive contact with me. It was many years ago and young Herman was testifying in front of my committee about Burger King. Every time he said “have it your way” and “home of the whopper” he gave me the look. Rham Emanuel said I should come forward. And don’t ask if Debbie Wasserman Schultz is our love child.
Looks like Italy is blowing up:
ROME—Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi on Wednesday failed to issue growth-boosting measures demanded by European Union authorities ahead of the Group of 20 summit, raising further doubts about the government's willingness to pass economic reforms aimed at restoring investor confidence in the country.It will be hard to ringfence a country which doesn’t want any austerity measures. What if they overdid the show and now Italy wants to be like Greece? Do they still get the EFSF juice without any of the austerity?
Well, it’s just a theory. The shocking reality could be true, which is they are all amazingly incompetent and on the verge of societal suicide.
Multi-party negotiations need a bully – that can’t be Merkel, or Sarkoooooz, and no one else has credibility.
They fail.
Now let’s talk about Iran…
I too want to entertain your conspiracy theory, but I think it’s really far too clever for the Europeans. More likely is G. Pap, while eating his gyro after the crisis summit, decided that he’s going to be labeled as some German lackey in Greek history forever, so instead he decided to fob the decision to the mobs.
Weak Euro = Bad news for China, US, Japan etc . And then of course the inevitable response by them to quant easing. Sounds like the eurocrats may be to clever for their own good.
Fly, the “staging,” as you put it, relies on the assumption that G-Pap would never screw over German, French leaders when they had already laid their cocks out on the table. My question is: Why would he give a shit about screwing them? If he went along with their reforms, he’d be ousted immediately. This referendum is his last bid at preserving his throne.
If anything, Fly, I think your theory would be better modified to say that the referendum was certainly planned, but not to kick out Greece–rather, to get the Germans on board with printing. The EFSF is a sham and does not work. There are no such thing as “voluntary” haircuts. The ECB needs to get its chopper on, and it needs to do so NOW. I think you’ll see November price in a repudiation of the “voluntary” haircut Greek debt plan (read: elevator shaft down), paving the way for Merkel to sell the Germans on QE-Euro. This is the only way.
Also, FUTURES are getting absolutely poleaxed. Down over 100 pts right now.
The Chinese will buy Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal and put up Casinos along the Med coast and will get home ports for the expanding Naval fleet
at the rate Greece, Italy, et.al. are devaluing themselves, you won’t need the Chinese to buy ’em out. At about $1.95 per citizen, certified value, I figure Latvia could buy the lot of ’em as sort of a sovereign summer house, with plenty of serfs to trim the hedges.
Well, what do you know!! “MF Global has discovered a shortfall of segregated accounts of around $600 million,” a lawyer with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said, adding that this is a preliminary figure that could increase. This past weekend, executives at MF Global had been scrambling to sell the firm to Interactive Brokers, but the missing money scuttled the deal and forced it into bankruptcy, regulators said this week.
Welcome to two days ago.
He’s a few days late and a couple inches shorter from fucking some desert cactus.
LMFAO!!
Don’t think so Fly.
This creates a run on the other PIIGS which indirectly creates a run on the banks.
Bonds would be cheaper for the ECB to buy via higher yields. The problem is the banks would be toast. France and German banks are filled to the gills with PIIGS debt.
The last thing Europe wants is a bond rout. Think Early 1980’s when Volker raised rates and drove half of Wall St outta biz. This would be 100x worse.
If Greece can be kicked-out/quit, then so can any of them.
They need Abe Lincoln to send in the paratroopers.
Interesting. I think Ben B will join in the printing parade. Its clear that he is holding strong on the “inflation” side show, but this crisis will allow him to print as well and unleash QE3. I am with Senor on this one and I like the timing of it as well.
This referendum is G-pap’s last bid at preserving his own neck and his party’s credibility (ministers agreed because they don’t want to ruin their political chances in the future). Don’t think he gives a sh*t about the Greek people, their pensions and jobs. I would be surprised if the Greek banking system & stock market have not completely collapsed by the time the referendem takes place … as an investor why take the chance that you will lose the lot when the Greeks say “no” (which is certainly possible).
Things are really escalating quickly right now, over in Asia and in Futures. Tomorrow might be a limit down type of open.
Market will move quickly to price in Greek economic meltdown and debt default IMO. Poor bast*rds.
Shame G-Pap and his finance minister had little understanding of markets. The baffoon thought he and his people could ponder on it a bit more whilst the rest of the world put their lives on hold … picture the Greek thinker!
There will be lots of thinking time in Greece in the next 20 years.
lol. Gpap is Socrates.
Socrates had conspired to bring about a counter-revolution against Athenian democracy. He incited the aristocratic youth to revolt against the democracy. He didn’t believe in democracy and thought a philosopher king was preferable. He said true wisdom is knowing that you know nothing.
He could have avoided drinking the hemlock, but he did it anyway out of principal.
It was no planned move. This is no Wall Street Boiler Room drama. Greece made a mistake and just screwed itself over. EU is losing its patience and rightly sending the message “we’re not having that”. Greeks will bend over anytime to stay in EU. What else have they got?
you will fail miserably in gains on capital but you will succeed spectacularly in getting whipsawed in this market.
the 8th largest economy in the world will lose market access and ECB will step in to print. You say the markets will soar. Bullshit. Dollar index doing a moonshot will result in hell breaking loose after the market soar is transitory.
Be a man and be net short not some bullshit long stance with 10% cash. You will fail miserably with those positions in the upcoming days.
BANNED.
Where are you tea bagger?? Lmao.. Mo Mo
Not pulling thorns out of my cock like you this morning. How’d ya like that headfake shorty? BWAAAAAA … Who’s crying now loser?
That all being said I’m not all too worried about the US markets. Ben’s got your back.
Agreed the US markets will hold up OK, the French/German markets will survive and bounce back with bank bail out money a plenty (Germans would rather bleed to death than let their banks fail/ same goes for the French – this is Euro land not the US remember!)
Greece will be a smoking hole in the ground!
Dow 10K Party Hats! Writing is on the wall!
So, after all Gint wins again.
.
“Greece” is the word !
“Greece” is the word, is the word that you heard …
It’s got groove it’s got meaning !
“Greece” is the time, is the place is the motion …
“Greece” is the way we are feeling !
This is the life of illusion …
Wrapped up in trouble laced with confusion !
What we doing here ?
.
.
“Greece” is the word …
Is the word !
Is the word !
Is the word !
Is the word !
Is the word !
Is the word !
Is the word !
Is the word !
.
Very close to a Ban.
That was almost as bad as V.King’s top ten rock & roll songs of all-time.
V.King has been banned for less.
Damn it!
I actually thought that (slightly paraphrased) lyric … summed up “Greece” quite nicely !
Tough crowd !
.
I always thought bird was the word?
What the heck is that from?
So far, the bulls have taken the occasional Richard Simmons jab here and there. It’s going to be beautiful when Tyson’s left fucking hook comes out of no where..
Alf is Richard Simmons – early David Letterman era.
… and you call Richard Gere’s anus “Home Sweet Home” !
.
It never rains in California.
Now go teach a spin class.
Would not get too excited about the bear case longer term. Like the Fly said the Euro zone needs Greece like a hole in the head.
If they ditch them there will be a big celebration (once they have flooded the banks with money).
Fuck gonzo
I wonder how some of you men with small brains manage to earn a living. I know who you are by the tone of your disrespectful posts.
Need I remind you this website is my house. When you come to my house, take your shoes off because the rugs are professionally cleaned every 3 months and I do not like germs. Moreover, if your opinion is different than mine, please feel free to discuss like a gentleman over a deep cup of brandy, instead of a high school punk with a bottle of Miller Light in your hands.
Needless to say, you will be banned.
It’s unfortunate how much of a hostage the world financial markets are to the Greek drama. Maybe thats to weak a word. Disgusting is more like it. Reminds me of the Mexican crisis of 94-95. This however, is much more amplified and drawn out.
Futures getting crushed…should be a wild ride tmrw too….
I figured that one out today, too, Mr. Fly.
It is the perfect solution to let Greece fail.
The world won’t let them starve (or will they?)
Stay away from FCX!
that was great !! grease is ther word!
I am not trying to be disrespectful, but more curious than anything else. Is it really possible to ban someone over the internet? If so, how does that work….meant as a gentlemens’ question.
When you enter this site, you immediately enter a state of subliminal hypnosis whereby all of Fly’s words are commands that you will unquestionably follow.
If Fly says you’re banned, then your subconscious will no longer allow you to click on your iBc bookmark or enter the iBankcoin URL in your browser.
If Fly tells you to go fuck yourself, your gonna wake up with a very achy back and your sphincter is going to be quite sore.
Got my futures short line out pronto after the Cannes meeting, already making good money … just remember to reel it in before the ECB rates meeting tomorrow.
WTF is going on with the Shanghai A Share Index? Those Bstrds cellebrating all the cheap Euro debt they are going to buy?
Interesting hypothesis, Senor. Its true that it is absurd political theater. Your hypothesis would require Merkel and Sarkozy to volunteer to get played politically and Papandreou to be possibly a hero. It also could all go up in smoke if Papandreou loses his vote of confidence. Too much risk, IMO and little chance Merkel and Sarkozy would volunteer to become Greece’s bitch ahead of time.
It would have made much more sense politically to announce a referendum vote ahead of the meeting. Same result, but less political fallout. World politics is based on power. No way European leaders give Greece any.
(Merkel included) heh heh heh……
“who put their cocks on the line (Merkel included)–no fucking way.”
The true story in a “nutshell”.
Classic shit Fly…had a good guffaw.
I sit here with a Natty Lite in hand whilst feasting upon a peanut butter and caviar sandwhich. I recently interviewed Lance Armstrong’s amputated testicle, which was sitting on a mantle in a popcorn shrimp jar filled with alcohol. I was informed that most of the wealth generated over the past thirty years was due to financial engineering (horse-shit).
A depression and subsequent default is necessary to flush the debt from the system. Equity markets be damned. Under these circumstances, the market is a fraud.
it is not planned. trust me.
I thought the exact same thing. The whole referendum thing seems staged, because it makes no fucking sense unless GPap suddenly went batshit crazy.
we pay twenty dollars for a pack of cigarettes. nothing we do ever makes sense. be careful we are fucking retarded. but our daughters do like to fuck and they do it well.
I am over 60% cash and wish I was more.
This whole thing is mind boggling. I hope the USA is taking notes.
The debts are valued in euros but the bond demands are causing shortages of euros of individual countries to pay back the debt in euros. Maybe the US can do the opposite and let every fucking one of the 50 states (or 57 if you’re using Obama math) print their own money with one national US treasury bond.
>unless GPap suddenly went batshit crazy
Very possible for a leader of a country on the Mediterranean
For the Greek government, its employees, and pensioners, there may be some motivation in repaying the debt. But for the average citizen? Greece will not be able to borrow internationally for a while, so what? They are not going to starve, they may have to give up Ipads. Greeks have nothing to lose but their “reputation.”
However, if the government is not able to borrow, they will really have to shrink the payroll and reduce all of those amazing pensions. Government will actually get smaller. Very scary!
Do asshat awards come in a size big enough for a whole country?
Just a song before I go….
And promise you won’t let Alf spike the dollar while Im gone…?
_______________
I think you glossed over a lot of topics here and ran headlines along a very particular train of thought. First, I think when a nation technically defaults it merely renegotiates the means of cash flow and the process is not analogous to a corporate bankruptcy whereby secured loans are collateralized by assets. Even in the event of unsecured loans, there are negotiations of debt to equity swaps or legal disputes over the assets. Furthermore, I’m not sure how you would justify an “automatic haircut of 70%” if they declared “bankruptcy.” In the event that a haircut on pensions or government employees were let go or told to accept lower wages etc, history shows that the people will be very reluctant to continue working at their present occupation for said government. Consider what happened to the coal workers on the Trans-Siberian Railway in Russia during their ’98 default.
If there was a printing of euro en masse by the ECB, I want to think that it would affect the troublesome consumer price inflation currently worrying Italy and Spain. Italian CPI has been steadily rising since ’09 (where food and bev along with transportation costs equate to 31% of cpi calcs there).
I was looking over some charts today; just look at some things I found. Since the height of the stock market in 2007 until today- in terms of currency futures the dollar and the euro are basically unchanged, the yen is 50% higher, swiss franc is 20% higher, aussie 20% higher, pound is 20% lower, US stocks are 20% below all time highs, banks and basic materials are down 80%, crude is unchanged, gold is up 150%, natty is down 50%, copper unchanged, coffee & corn & sugar are up a lot, TLT up 30%, and other short term bonds are up 20% or so.
If the euro-zone is going to austere and print, we are going to have a USD preference and possibly a better outlook for the US. Note that the USD rose 45% from 1985 through 2001 during which the DJIA rose >800% (I know there were many other factors). Reserve currency safety, trade balance reduction through increased exports (politically driven), no food inflation concerns at the consumer level, decent gdp growth, currency transference from precious metals and bonds to higher yielding assets (or assets that yield anything) throughout a period of a twisted impotent yield curve, an increase in the velocity of money, and possibly a decrease in interest on excess reserves from the Fed could propel our domestic economy. This requires a tremendous amount of further thought but from a mile away it doesn’t look that bad for America from a valuation standpoint.
It’s late, but that’s just some thoughts bouncing around.
i so want to buy in to that thinkin hmmm. then i look at MF GLOBAL and think. no fucking way. too young for the 82 bull too old for the rebirth theory. still like the insight. just really finding it hard to believe.
Im not worthy
Im not worthy
capital concentration into countries are good. The people buy the hell out of US bonds, and in response the government needs to inflate their debts away, into the economy. Meanwhile rates rise because fear of government default. So bond holders start demanding a higher bond yield and will be more willing to invest in a lower dividend yield as stocks seem “safer” then/
until the boomers finaly die or go senile. the 82 bull rebirth will be a farce. the young have no capitol. they are handcuffed by an old society that will not die and needs. if amerika is japan. go to a hospital and see for yourself. we are not having children. the young with brains dont breed. just like japan.
amerika is doomed by the almost zero percent interest on savings accounts. the old dont get it. there is no multiplier effect now. the young will not breed. they cant afford it. want some sushi?
the next great bullmarket will start when the last boomer is dead. the system will implode and reset. the kids of today will rip the dow too 100000. but the boomers have too die first.
BANNED!!!
That is true. We have a demographics issue that actually is (very) predictable
Demand (in so many areas) will not be there as more modest generations in accumulation and size
Lost decade? I think it’s just getting started. Gee, Nikkei went from 40,000 to 10,000 still hasn’t come back
You forget that relative to the rest of the world our demographics are relatively normally distributed.
Dont confuse me with that other “gonzo”
If Greek leaves EUR and wants to pay back bonds in Drakma? with that trigger a Credit Default? That is the question? Courts to be involved.
Thats where it gets ugly.. banks all over the world are using Greek bonds and Greek bond CDO’s as assets and levered up to the tits.. and you know those CDO are about as worthless as the Greek bonds. banks are now insolvent and must be liquidated… LOL.
at this point every market crash will be met with riots. the game has changed. if the boomers feel lucky. go ahead and try it. good luck. ows will explode like locusts. just tell the kids how the rules have changed again. how now is the time of suffering. they will smother your old ass in your sleep.
Holy fuck man, go 2 bed..
TeahouseOnTheTracks Triumvirate of Doom.
#1 There will be NO turkey gods this year. As a matter of fact, with your wishful thinking and mindset, you’ll be lucky to eat muskrat.
#2 There will be NO Santa Clause rally for you. Not even coal for your ass, you’ll be getting shit cookies and a glass of warm piss..
Good Luck Sucker …. AH, HAHAHA!!
Gee, but don’t earnings matter? What about the 50-day?
Not in a sovereign debt crisis! ha
This really is the perfect storm. Roaring 20s led to depression 30s. See if history repeats
Huh? Wanna bet?
Futs are looking nice, huh tea bagger??
Not so bad now. You have a great ability to call market bottoms. Too bad you’re on the wrong side of your calls.
Going to laugh my ass off if futures are green by the time this guy rolls out of bed.
I couldn’t sleep so I checked the DJIA futures about 3:30 and they were down about 160 and the DAX was down close to 3%.
An hour later everything is unchanged and now positive.
If there are any swing traders out there you would have just as good a chance if you let a monkey throw darts.
Futes swung green on former Greek Finance Minister Interview on Bloomberg radio. Talking smack. He probably wants to be PM when they run Pap-man out of town. Spreads are whacked. EU is dead. Stick a fork in it. There’s not enough Drachmas, Lyra, Escudos, and Francs, to stuff the holes in the Euro banks. Asta-la-veesta [sic] Baby. Be careful of course.
Ha!
That’s a Vegas Casino … Now feel the pain of the cash market Cactus Cock …. Margin Call at 3PM … GL!
Imbeciles at WNR fucked it again. I begin to suspect that they buy hedging contracts from a company owned by the CEO’s relatives. Nice way to siphon the money from otherwise fat margins.
Greece is gaming this market and profiting from it. Market is up and down on Greek news daily/hourly. News leaks. Profits are made.
Greece finance minister probably loaded up $SPY puts last Friday, then switched to calls yesterday.
This is probably their way to pay off the debt 🙂
Interesting take Senor Fly.
But then there’s this:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/11/debt-crisis
“However, the real threat of a Greek default is in the example it would set. Citizens of other European nations would see the chaos; they might figure that their savings would be safer in German, rather than Portuguese (or Italian) banks. Bond investors might feel the same; yields would rise further. Official creditors (including the ECB) might take a hit, making it even more difficult for them to participate in other bailouts.
For all the bluster, one can’t help feeling the tough EU stance is a bit of a bluff. They can’t view a Greek exit with anything other than fear.”
ECB cuts rates. Market loves it. At least the currency market do.
Italian bond yield coming down…
INTC,AAPL look sick
Vegas … Vegas … Anybody?
VXX just went flat. Ha!
Thus far, it’s gap and crap.
AAPL,INTC,QCOM,AMZN, etc.
Market is a Kardashian skank this AM.
One word of caution…EUR/USD going back to overnight lows. Maybe why market is selling off a bit here.
Anybody know why else market is selling off?
I truly adore it!
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