I’ve Got News For You

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Believe it or not, I blog from a dark room, clad entirely in burlap garments. My beard is “Santa Claus” thick and my rambo knife has blood stains on it. As I sip on a mug filled with black smoke, visions of glorious calamity and appalling stock market collapse crowd my oversized brain (IQ clocked at 155).This rally you’ve enjoyed all but guaranteed an egregiously large decline, and soon. The sands of time shall mark the occasion, when man, in the face of obvious destruction, chose to buy high multiple shit in favor of getting his affairs in order.

I insist, you should get your affairs in order immediately, if you haven’t done so already.

The entirety of the market is on the verge of getting “NFLX’d”, as the European debt crisis hits brand new levels of absurdity. Consider the fact that Italian 10 year yields are saddling the 6% mark with ECB intervention. Without it, Italy would be gone, washed away like a cannoli in a white water river.

As you know, I sold much of my WNR today, executed at the finest prices of the day. I sold 50% when it was up, and another tranche when it was down a bit. All in all, I’ve reduced my WNR position down to 5% of assets, allowing my short exposure to live. This is the first time my short exposure is net more than 10% of assets since the inception of this rally of life. Humans want to live. It’s too bad everyone must die.

The market is a circus, populated with base creatures, who respond only to pain or pleasure. Such beings are on the low end of the totem pole. I intend to teach these iniquitous ham and eggers a thing or two about moderation. You will bear witness to this, AND MORE, in the days and weeks to come.

Posted by on Monday, October 24, 2011 at 4:35 pm 
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130 Responses to I’ve Got News For You

leftcoasttrader says:
October 24, 2011 at 4:43 pm

I believe this accurately portrays bull complacency:

http://i.imgur.com/eVrJv.jpg

Unrelated to markets, research into historical performance practice shows that Canon in D should actually be played about twice as fast as it traditionally is, contrary to what new age hippy performances would have us believe. It was actually quite a virtuosic piece.

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RickRossTheBoss says:
October 24, 2011 at 4:44 pm

You still 100% TZA in your personal account? Believe you mentioned that last week. I just shifted everything into TZA this afternoon. Let’s not forget spanish yields climbed over 5.5% today and TLT was also green…despite the SPY being up 1.23% (on the lowest volume in almost 3 months). Just wait til the private investors put the kibosh on the 60% “voluntary” haircut. Then we’ll see what true pain looks like.

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skogie1 says:
October 24, 2011 at 4:46 pm

In other news, I watched Margin Call last night (stolen from piratebay.org in the spirit of Occupy the Internet) and was very underwhelmed.

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flyaway18 says:
October 24, 2011 at 4:49 pm

IDK, are you responding to pain or pleasure in that dark room? I can’t imagine folks aren’t taking profits and raising a little cash. I hope you feel better. Shae, shower, light the fire and enjoy the family.

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Dirk Diggler says:
October 24, 2011 at 4:57 pm

Great version of a masterpiece. My wife & I met while playing this song in HS Orchestra. She walked down the aisle to it. Good times.

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alf44 says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:09 pm

Tim Tebow can’t save this Market !

—

Okay … I misspoke !

Tim Tebow is prolly the ONLY one who CAN save this Market !!!

.

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alf44 says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:11 pm

Tim Tebow is GOD … sortta !

.

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Bravo says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:19 pm

Alf, I realize you are negative, and or short. My question isn’t the direction of your bet, but the timing. I am inferring calamity in your posts….WHEN?

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alf44 says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:35 pm

… not predicting “calamity” !

Just speaking “tongue in cheek” !

Aside from copius amounts of liquor … laughter is the best medicine … so I just have to laugh (till after hours). :)

I have definitely been wrong on this UP move and the extent to which it has gone. FWIW, I don’t think I’m alone but … I find little if any consolation in that.

SIGH !!!

.

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rookie says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:21 pm

as absurd as this rally is, don’t you think we’ll run up into the holidays? as of today, and if these levels hold, we’re headed for outside reversal months on crude and the spx.

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TeahouseOnTheTracks says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:22 pm

Off Topic:

Fly, you or the wife in MA recently … a Nissan Murano (HOMO) spotted brearing NY plates with “The Fly” for a registration?

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The Fly says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:28 pm

lol. NEVER.

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jose mann says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:40 pm

Fly, I saw the plate ‘The Real Fly’ on a Fisker Karma !!!

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alf44 says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:44 pm

I picture Senor Fly cruising in an armored HumVee with a 50 caliber mounted on the roof !

.

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jose mann says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:50 pm

alf, are you holding your shorts ???

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alf44 says:
October 24, 2011 at 6:03 pm

… that loaded question has about 50 ways I could go with an answer … but since this is a “family blog” I’ll refrain !

—

YES !

SHORTER … than Herve Villechaize !

—

Hopefully, I won’t also soon be :

DEADER … than Herve Villechaize !

.

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En1gma says:
October 24, 2011 at 6:16 pm

Alf,

You bother me. I used to be interested in the content of your posts. Now I just skip them because of your retarded punctuation and random line spacing.

This bugs the shit of out of me. Why do you put effort into being annoying with your formatting? I’m calling you out on it.

Stop being a douche and maybe more people would be interested in the content of your posts. I think it’s fair to say I am not the only one annoyed by your disregard for basic punctuation. Add in that annoying avatar and I get the feeling you’re one of those types who just likes to be a fucking pain in the ass.

Congratulations. Mission accomplished.

When you’re ready to share your thoughts without being a flaming faggot demanding extra special attention by using retarded punctuation I’ll be happy to read the *content* of your posts again. Until then, I’ll just pass everything you say by without a second glance.

Have a nice day.

E.

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alf44 says:
October 24, 2011 at 6:41 pm

… correct me if I’m wrong but …

I’m pretty sure the word “enIgma” … doesn’t have a “#1″ in it !!!

HELLO … Spellcheck !!!

—

Lighten up tightass … this the Internet not English Comp 101 !!!

Believe me, as an educated person … and one who is married to a former English Teacher … I can assure you that I don’t write like this in my “real life” !

My wife would never allow it ! lol

You’re dead wrong about the “random” though … there is NOTHING “random” whatsoever about the format in my internet posts ! It is all well thought out … like a haiku poem !

You don’t like it ?

Oh well !!!

.

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TeahouseOnTheTracks says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:34 pm

OEW Daily Recap:

“The market opened slightly higher today, then continued its third wave rally to a new uptrend high at SPX 1257. This third wave started at SPX 1197 low on Oct. 20th. Currently this uptrend has risen 16.9% from the SPX 1075 low posted on Oct. 4th, and is 15 days old. Keep in mind the Jun and Aug uptrends were 15 and 18 days in duration, respectively. The current SPX 1257 high was also the Mar08 low, and this is just one point below the Jun11 1258 low which also represents a 61.8% retracement of the entire May11-Oct11 decline. With a 5 year old pivot at SPX 1261 also acting as resistance, this could be a tough price area to penetrate.

Short term support is at the 1240 pivot, the low 1230?s and then the 1222 pivot. Overhead resistance is at the 1261 pivot range and then the 1291 pivot. Short term momentum hit quite overbought today and then backed off some. Overnight trading should be important if this market is going to gap up through another important resistance area.”

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flyaway18 says:
October 24, 2011 at 6:50 pm

Thanks Tea, for the update. I let my cable expire and now I can’t get as many Bruins games. I’m stuck watching New York teams, yuck.

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Chango says:
October 24, 2011 at 5:53 pm

Awesome music selection.

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TeahouseOnTheTracks says:
October 24, 2011 at 6:23 pm

Yes but this would have been more appropriate:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERJIacyYFB0

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Blind Read Ant says:
October 24, 2011 at 6:27 pm

I CONCUR IN PART

While no “turn key” for Americans, there will be turkey.

A flash “slip-dip” (no Napolitano) is an alternative not ruled out.

Rather, when January RNC primaries crowns our future President (no 6-6-6), then I’d say the doom and gloom hits.

Not that RNC are “bad” for the economy, but that’s what the zeitgeist in the media will be.

It’s really a matter of the USD strengthening, but there are the fundamentals. More bad EUR news as the catalyst.

Yeah, and read the disclaimer at the bottom of the page, as is usual in my posts.

DIDDO.

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che guacaomole says:
October 24, 2011 at 6:52 pm

“The governor of the US state of Pennsylvania has declared a fiscal emergency in the capital, Harrisburg, beginning a state takeover of the city’s finances.

The takeover comes after Harrisburg’s city council rejected calls to implement a financial recovery plan and declared bankruptcy.”

Yeah, I think I’ll go long the dollar here..

Thanks Mr. Thaler!

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Bobby Boucher says:
October 24, 2011 at 7:37 pm

“The entirety of the market is on the verge of getting “NFLX’d”, as the European debt crisis hits brand new levels of absurdity.”

Have to respectfully disagree with you, sir. The kind of strength we’ve seen typically follows thru for a while. A while as in months. For those of you who would point to the volume as counter-indicative, the volume on the Nasdaq Composite during that QE2 run was 1.9B per day. The average daily volume for the period 2005 thru 2011 was 2.1B. Average daily volume over the last 2 weeks? 2.0B. It’s Fall 2010 all over again.

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theedge111 says:
October 24, 2011 at 8:04 pm

THe European “solution” announced will be the biggest sell the news event in history.

I expect the Italian people to be throwing meatballs at one another by this Friday at the latest.

Picked up some TWM for the ride down near the end of the day.

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che guacaomole says:
October 24, 2011 at 8:31 pm

Th3 euro slaps you in the face like a wet vagina.. you knew it all along FLY>> materials, oils, but you were swayed by the scrotum lickers on you site.. btw theedege111 fuck you and your racial stereo types Merkel fuckd you up the ass.Oh?Whats that? Merkel and Sarkozy are assholes? Did you watch your republican debate the other nite? Good Luck with your dickwadds.

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che guacaomole says:
October 24, 2011 at 8:51 pm

mahk bert and what pray tell have u contributed?

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Bravo says:
October 24, 2011 at 9:15 pm

Do you consider your tripe a contribution? Your foulmouthed drunken babbling lowers the discourse to a Yahoo message board.

I hope Mr. Fly is serious about cleaning up around these parts….

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mahk bert says:
October 24, 2011 at 9:29 pm

Alot more than you have. You must suffer from a selective reading problem. PRAY TELL? Now that is hilarious!You have the wrong website if you think this is Romeo and Juliet.

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Heaterman says:
October 24, 2011 at 9:11 pm

I feel sorry for all you guys trapped in the cities, looking at screens and scratching various parts of your anatomy.

Out here at 44.25N 85.09W the northern lights are out in brilliant display tonight.

Although they are fewer each day, there are still “roses” to smell on the pathway to financial oblivion.

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ruggyup says:
October 24, 2011 at 9:22 pm

Strange shit here. Fly offers 999. TraCad reminds of Cain 999, then offers Bachman @ 666. JoMan goes back to 999. A pattern of 6s & 9s is emerging. CheGua and JoMan get into scrotum devilry. Definite sexually charged 69 pattern emerging. WTF is going on with you perverts? Did talk of bearded clam and lap dancing get you adolescents all moist and breathing hard?

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The Fly says:
October 24, 2011 at 9:57 pm

Che is banned for life. You will never see him again. Ever.

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Michael Yoshikami says:
October 24, 2011 at 10:29 pm

The markets are up yet again causing the gloomy forecasters to wonder
“What’s happening??!! Has the world lost its mind?”.

No, actually what’s happening is earnings are coming in better than many analysts had expected and this is driving the markets higher. Additionally, Europe looks as if it might actually do something about their problems which is a welcome breath of fresh air.

The market is based on expectations and when gloom overshadows actual results, you tend to have an oversold condition. It’s our belief that this is the current case and has been for some time. For that reason, we have been a fairly solitary voice saying that we think the selling was overdone as long as regulators did nothing excessively destructive to ruin investor confidence. We expected the markets to stabilize and even move forward. And that is what is playing out now.

And what about from here going forward? Look for Europe to continue to struggle as they address their trillion dollar problem. We believe the United States will likely grow at a slower pace. Still, that is not to say that equity markets cannot move forward in a positive way; they can. And despite emerging countries selling off because of concerns about global growth, these markets need to be reflected in portfolio strategies today. One only needs to look at McDonald’s results to
recognize that the global impact of corporate earnings can drive stock prices higher.

Warren Buffett often says when others are afraid, buy and when they are euphoric, sell. We believe this is the time when excess pessimism has negatively impacted investors perspectives about the reality of earnings growth. Don’t get caught up in this negative spiral psychological game (just like you want to avoid the optimism trap as well).

Digest information on a rational basis and take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves even if the mood is gloomy or overly euphoric. Be the rare rational investor and you will be rewarded.

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Old Salt says:
October 24, 2011 at 10:39 pm

Yes but earnings are the past and the balance sheet is the future. So there is a possibility that future growth will be lower than past growth. Take earnings growth out of the forward earnings and PE may not have much room to rise. So for now I will avoid the optimism trap.

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? says:
October 24, 2011 at 11:00 pm

Europe needs to recap their banks. Minimum 100B. So let’s say that happens in the next week or so. Then Greece gives Europe a free 50% haircut. Poof! 100B gone the way of all flesh. Then the Meatball Boys weigh in with a modest 5 Beard Trim. The cheese begins to bind……

As Gandalf said…….” Fly, you fools!”.

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Damon says:
October 25, 2011 at 1:29 am

When CAT killed the numbers and raised guidance, I had to wonder. Then, it hit me.

Oil Sand and Oil Shale, the Dakotas, Canada, and those big-a*s monster machines needed to do the job.

Also, South America another huge market for CAT.

What does one CAT 797F mining dump truck cost?

http://www.cat.com/cda/layout?m=413188&x=7

A 994F Front Loader?

http://www.cat.com/cda/layout?m=308907&x=7

Freakin’ billions of dollars with lasers mounted on their blades!

Oil Shale Oil Sands, lets move up to the Dakotas and build some housing!

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Trading_Nymph says:
October 25, 2011 at 3:05 am

Do you know what was my acid test today, I wanted to see if ONE person on CNBC or Bloomberg would point out the fact that the HSBC China PMI data was only its flash data, and that the real one, along with the china govt one comes out on Nov 1. Nope, not one, they all treated it like it was final data. PLUS, I DIDN’T hear one talk about how bad the EU Flash PMI data was. Today, was a massive short squeeze in WTC Oil over stupid Satalite Photos and hope…but bottomline..I also sit and wait and wait for all of this to pop like it should. Copper is a dead cat bounce caused by speculators calling a bottom, but housing in china soft, auto sales getting soft…no need for copper.

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JTU says:
October 25, 2011 at 7:54 am

Fly what do you make of the rapid decline in crack spreads? How narrow do you think they can get and what does it mean for the refineries?

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