Believe it or not, I blog from a dark room, clad entirely in burlap garments. My beard is “Santa Claus” thick and my rambo knife has blood stains on it. As I sip on a mug filled with black smoke, visions of glorious calamity and appalling stock market collapse crowd my oversized brain (IQ clocked at 155).This rally you’ve enjoyed all but guaranteed an egregiously large decline, and soon. The sands of time shall mark the occasion, when man, in the face of obvious destruction, chose to buy high multiple shit in favor of getting his affairs in order.
I insist, you should get your affairs in order immediately, if you haven’t done so already.
The entirety of the market is on the verge of getting “NFLX’d”, as the European debt crisis hits brand new levels of absurdity. Consider the fact that Italian 10 year yields are saddling the 6% mark with ECB intervention. Without it, Italy would be gone, washed away like a cannoli in a white water river.
As you know, I sold much of my WNR today, executed at the finest prices of the day. I sold 50% when it was up, and another tranche when it was down a bit. All in all, I’ve reduced my WNR position down to 5% of assets, allowing my short exposure to live. This is the first time my short exposure is net more than 10% of assets since the inception of this rally of life. Humans want to live. It’s too bad everyone must die.
The market is a circus, populated with base creatures, who respond only to pain or pleasure. Such beings are on the low end of the totem pole. I intend to teach these iniquitous ham and eggers a thing or two about moderation. You will bear witness to this, AND MORE, in the days and weeks to come.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3RRQypEf4I 603 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
I noticed the yields also. Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy all up.
Let’s not forget France! Yield was up 0.072 or 2.22%. Biggest % increase of them all excluding Ireland + 6.6%.
I believe this accurately portrays bull complacency:
http://i.imgur.com/eVrJv.jpg
Unrelated to markets, research into historical performance practice shows that Canon in D should actually be played about twice as fast as it traditionally is, contrary to what new age hippy performances would have us believe. It was actually quite a virtuosic piece.
There’s a funny rant a comedian does about Pachelbel from a few years ago where he plays songs that use the same chord progression as Canon. There’s a ton of songs that use it.
At the end of today, that’s me on the bottom left!
You still 100% TZA in your personal account? Believe you mentioned that last week. I just shifted everything into TZA this afternoon. Let’s not forget spanish yields climbed over 5.5% today and TLT was also green…despite the SPY being up 1.23% (on the lowest volume in almost 3 months). Just wait til the private investors put the kibosh on the 60% “voluntary” haircut. Then we’ll see what true pain looks like.
In other news, I watched Margin Call last night (stolen from piratebay.org in the spirit of Occupy the Internet) and was very underwhelmed.
Mr The Fly,
Crack spreads are getting taken out to the woodshed. Does this spell the end of refiners long term or just another short term blip?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CRK321M1:IND
I’m afraid so, for now. WNR is hedged at $27, however. Those hedges will now post gains.
Dark room, black smoke, itchy burlap sleeves… amazing you can type at all.
IDK, are you responding to pain or pleasure in that dark room? I can’t imagine folks aren’t taking profits and raising a little cash. I hope you feel better. Shae, shower, light the fire and enjoy the family.
BANNED.
Just kidding, but close.
I shower 12 times per day.
That would be 12 times more per day than Steve Jobs.
too soon
Almost a 20 bagger for anybody buying NFLX 85 puts today
Congrats…
You are assuming NFLX opens where it is currently trading AH. Not saying you’re wrong but I’ve seen it many times before where a stock tanks in AH trading and opens much higher the next morning.
ha ha whatever
Great version of a masterpiece. My wife & I met while playing this song in HS Orchestra. She walked down the aisle to it. Good times.
So IPO’s, M&A, & new highs mean nothing?
like. where are the thumbs up?
I CUT YOUR THUMBS OFF.
Like…where ya been?
that fucking bloody thumb on the floor must be yours, cut off by the real Fly …
Tim Tebow can’t save this Market !
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Okay … I misspoke !
Tim Tebow is prolly the ONLY one who CAN save this Market !!!
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Tim Tebow is GOD … sortta !
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Alf, I realize you are negative, and or short. My question isn’t the direction of your bet, but the timing. I am inferring calamity in your posts….WHEN?
Before the open on Thursday perhaps?
… not predicting “calamity” !
Just speaking “tongue in cheek” !
Aside from copius amounts of liquor … laughter is the best medicine … so I just have to laugh (till after hours). 🙂
I have definitely been wrong on this UP move and the extent to which it has gone. FWIW, I don’t think I’m alone but … I find little if any consolation in that.
SIGH !!!
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the best fake of all time. steal anyone’s money,it’s the american way. cough cough
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Treasury-May-Issue-Debt-cnbc-2260939607.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
I can see this idea working out really well.
Are these people completely devoid of reason?
The people who control interest rates are trying to get people to sit across from them. Sounds like a great way to lose money.
as absurd as this rally is, don’t you think we’ll run up into the holidays? as of today, and if these levels hold, we’re headed for outside reversal months on crude and the spx.
Off Topic:
Fly, you or the wife in MA recently … a Nissan Murano (HOMO) spotted brearing NY plates with “The Fly” for a registration?
lol. NEVER.
I laughed myself when I was told it was a Murano … My response … “A Murano!”
Fly, I saw the plate ‘The Real Fly’ on a Fisker Karma !!!
I picture Senor Fly cruising in an armored HumVee with a 50 caliber mounted on the roof !
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that thing is spraying gasoline instead of bullitts …
alf, are you holding your shorts ???
… that loaded question has about 50 ways I could go with an answer … but since this is a “family blog” I’ll refrain !
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YES !
SHORTER … than Herve Villechaize !
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Hopefully, I won’t also soon be :
DEADER … than Herve Villechaize !
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shit, I can hear you screaming ‘da plane, da plane’ …
… or … “da pain … da pain” !!!
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Alf,
You bother me. I used to be interested in the content of your posts. Now I just skip them because of your retarded punctuation and random line spacing.
This bugs the shit of out of me. Why do you put effort into being annoying with your formatting? I’m calling you out on it.
Stop being a douche and maybe more people would be interested in the content of your posts. I think it’s fair to say I am not the only one annoyed by your disregard for basic punctuation. Add in that annoying avatar and I get the feeling you’re one of those types who just likes to be a fucking pain in the ass.
Congratulations. Mission accomplished.
When you’re ready to share your thoughts without being a flaming faggot demanding extra special attention by using retarded punctuation I’ll be happy to read the *content* of your posts again. Until then, I’ll just pass everything you say by without a second glance.
Have a nice day.
E.
… correct me if I’m wrong but …
I’m pretty sure the word “enIgma” … doesn’t have a “#1” in it !!!
HELLO … Spellcheck !!!
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Lighten up tightass … this the Internet not English Comp 101 !!!
Believe me, as an educated person … and one who is married to a former English Teacher … I can assure you that I don’t write like this in my “real life” !
My wife would never allow it ! lol
You’re dead wrong about the “random” though … there is NOTHING “random” whatsoever about the format in my internet posts ! It is all well thought out … like a haiku poem !
You don’t like it ?
Oh well !!!
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LOL, you were reading my mind, Alf44. Life’s too short to get wound up over internet posters.
are those posters real traders ???
OEW Daily Recap:
“The market opened slightly higher today, then continued its third wave rally to a new uptrend high at SPX 1257. This third wave started at SPX 1197 low on Oct. 20th. Currently this uptrend has risen 16.9% from the SPX 1075 low posted on Oct. 4th, and is 15 days old. Keep in mind the Jun and Aug uptrends were 15 and 18 days in duration, respectively. The current SPX 1257 high was also the Mar08 low, and this is just one point below the Jun11 1258 low which also represents a 61.8% retracement of the entire May11-Oct11 decline. With a 5 year old pivot at SPX 1261 also acting as resistance, this could be a tough price area to penetrate.
Short term support is at the 1240 pivot, the low 1230?s and then the 1222 pivot. Overhead resistance is at the 1261 pivot range and then the 1291 pivot. Short term momentum hit quite overbought today and then backed off some. Overnight trading should be important if this market is going to gap up through another important resistance area.”
Thanks Tea, for the update. I let my cable expire and now I can’t get as many Bruins games. I’m stuck watching New York teams, yuck.
flyaway18, please don’t say you were one of the 800K that cancelled NFLX too!
I axed it because I couldn’t get Jumanji 🙂
Then let it be time to embrace the hometown teams, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Bills, Rangers, Sabres, Warriers..:)~~
egregious
Awesome music selection.
Yes but this would have been more appropriate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERJIacyYFB0
Lyrics @ http://www.lyricsdepot.com/steely-dan/i-got-the-news.html
That’s supposed to be fuckin’ MUSIC?
I don’t think so.
That’s right … Jazz influenced and a Grammy winner to boot!
I wonder if Pachebel was the Rick Ross of his time.
I CONCUR IN PART
While no “turn key” for Americans, there will be turkey.
A flash “slip-dip” (no Napolitano) is an alternative not ruled out.
Rather, when January RNC primaries crowns our future President (no 6-6-6), then I’d say the doom and gloom hits.
Not that RNC are “bad” for the economy, but that’s what the zeitgeist in the media will be.
It’s really a matter of the USD strengthening, but there are the fundamentals. More bad EUR news as the catalyst.
Yeah, and read the disclaimer at the bottom of the page, as is usual in my posts.
DIDDO.
LMFAO @ the first paragraph of your post Fly….
Burlap Garments… bahaha
FYI, I beat your avatar many times Xeno, only to have Mike Tyson end my hour of Nintendo boxing in less than twenty seconds.
The good old days.
Yes Mike Tyson brought tears to me many times in childhood….
“The governor of the US state of Pennsylvania has declared a fiscal emergency in the capital, Harrisburg, beginning a state takeover of the city’s finances.
The takeover comes after Harrisburg’s city council rejected calls to implement a financial recovery plan and declared bankruptcy.”
Yeah, I think I’ll go long the dollar here..
Thanks Mr. Thaler!
Euro worth a wapping 40% more than the dollar..
someone please please explain.. thanking you in advance.
Any idea why GSVC was weak today?
“whopping” but I digress
short squeeze you say? Short squeeze hasn’t started yet.
FLY thanks for FIZZ last week.. it was an absolute winner for me today.. serious win.
Tanks! FIP
quid pro quo… MVO now to the bbq pit!
“The entirety of the market is on the verge of getting “NFLX’d”, as the European debt crisis hits brand new levels of absurdity.”
Have to respectfully disagree with you, sir. The kind of strength we’ve seen typically follows thru for a while. A while as in months. For those of you who would point to the volume as counter-indicative, the volume on the Nasdaq Composite during that QE2 run was 1.9B per day. The average daily volume for the period 2005 thru 2011 was 2.1B. Average daily volume over the last 2 weeks? 2.0B. It’s Fall 2010 all over again.
14,000
And that’s not my guess for the number of jelly beans in the jar.
Fly, when will we be graced with Carl Orff’s O Fortuna? Perhaps once the markets are buring to the ground?
Hell why not now. As a prelude.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AP_CSQgBPpQ
Besides wea re all chasing her. Some with Success, others not.
THe European “solution” announced will be the biggest sell the news event in history.
I expect the Italian people to be throwing meatballs at one another by this Friday at the latest.
Picked up some TWM for the ride down near the end of the day.
Indeud.
The Dow will plunge by 999 points in a single day.
“999”
Herman Cain agrees.
Bachman says 666 in one day, though.
Small consolation after we get our Dow rip of 10K in one day.
oh my Lord, 999 points, you are kidding, right, Sir Fly …
Th3 euro slaps you in the face like a wet vagina.. you knew it all along FLY>> materials, oils, but you were swayed by the scrotum lickers on you site.. btw theedege111 fuck you and your racial stereo types Merkel fuckd you up the ass.Oh?Whats that? Merkel and Sarkozy are assholes? Did you watch your republican debate the other nite? Good Luck with your dickwadds.
Thats right FLY you better moderate me your sucking wind.. read my posts over the last several weeks I called it you missed it.. Now do you want scrotum suckers or??
who are those scrotum lickers and suckers ???
I say banned
Pachelbel – Canon In D Major– Here’s the fast version someone mentioned above, for comparison
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlprozGcs80
mahk bert and what pray tell have u contributed?
Do you consider your tripe a contribution? Your foulmouthed drunken babbling lowers the discourse to a Yahoo message board.
I hope Mr. Fly is serious about cleaning up around these parts….
Alot more than you have. You must suffer from a selective reading problem. PRAY TELL? Now that is hilarious!You have the wrong website if you think this is Romeo and Juliet.
I feel sorry for all you guys trapped in the cities, looking at screens and scratching various parts of your anatomy.
Out here at 44.25N 85.09W the northern lights are out in brilliant display tonight.
Although they are fewer each day, there are still “roses” to smell on the pathway to financial oblivion.
Strange shit here. Fly offers 999. TraCad reminds of Cain 999, then offers Bachman @ 666. JoMan goes back to 999. A pattern of 6s & 9s is emerging. CheGua and JoMan get into scrotum devilry. Definite sexually charged 69 pattern emerging. WTF is going on with you perverts? Did talk of bearded clam and lap dancing get you adolescents all moist and breathing hard?
Down 5-6% after being up 11-12%
Averaging down on DRV TYP SDOW
the illusion that things are ok, can only continue so long
… from your lips … to Tim Tebows ears !
Metaphorically speaking, of course !
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The Triple Nine Society awaits your application for consideration.
Che is banned for life. You will never see him again. Ever.
… the dewd couldn’t even spell “guacamole” correctly !
Now that’s just plain WRONG !!! imo
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… let’s be real for a sec …
You REALLY need to be able to spell “guacamole” correctly !!!
I mean REALLY !!!
.
Thank you and none too soon
Thank You.
FEDEX: WE EXPECT RECORD HOLIDAY SHIPPING
http://pragcap.com/fedex-we-expect-record-holiday-shipping
They should hope so as oil heads toward $93 a bbl…
The markets are up yet again causing the gloomy forecasters to wonder
“What’s happening??!! Has the world lost its mind?”.
No, actually what’s happening is earnings are coming in better than many analysts had expected and this is driving the markets higher. Additionally, Europe looks as if it might actually do something about their problems which is a welcome breath of fresh air.
The market is based on expectations and when gloom overshadows actual results, you tend to have an oversold condition. It’s our belief that this is the current case and has been for some time. For that reason, we have been a fairly solitary voice saying that we think the selling was overdone as long as regulators did nothing excessively destructive to ruin investor confidence. We expected the markets to stabilize and even move forward. And that is what is playing out now.
And what about from here going forward? Look for Europe to continue to struggle as they address their trillion dollar problem. We believe the United States will likely grow at a slower pace. Still, that is not to say that equity markets cannot move forward in a positive way; they can. And despite emerging countries selling off because of concerns about global growth, these markets need to be reflected in portfolio strategies today. One only needs to look at McDonald’s results to
recognize that the global impact of corporate earnings can drive stock prices higher.
Warren Buffett often says when others are afraid, buy and when they are euphoric, sell. We believe this is the time when excess pessimism has negatively impacted investors perspectives about the reality of earnings growth. Don’t get caught up in this negative spiral psychological game (just like you want to avoid the optimism trap as well).
Digest information on a rational basis and take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves even if the mood is gloomy or overly euphoric. Be the rare rational investor and you will be rewarded.
Yes but earnings are the past and the balance sheet is the future. So there is a possibility that future growth will be lower than past growth. Take earnings growth out of the forward earnings and PE may not have much room to rise. So for now I will avoid the optimism trap.
RndhzkalsloekskKzkeillskqqplz)?/9$:°-
This might explain why some of your recent trades may also make no sense.
Congrats on being the new Biggest Douche in the Universe.
Libya and the Brent/WTI spread explained;
http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newscolumnists/rudi/8364550/the-oil-price-libya-and-the-brent-wti-spread
Europe needs to recap their banks. Minimum 100B. So let’s say that happens in the next week or so. Then Greece gives Europe a free 50% haircut. Poof! 100B gone the way of all flesh. Then the Meatball Boys weigh in with a modest 5 Beard Trim. The cheese begins to bind……
As Gandalf said…….” Fly, you fools!”.
5% . Note to self…..bring “A” game.
If my comment says “waiting moderation” does that mean I fucked myself and have a temporary comment ban?
possibly. I ban so many people I tend to lose track.
Your readership is not that important.
Question, sometimes it means that your comment got caught in some kind of filter on this web site. If you retry, it may go through.
Bye bye Che
How dare u call me racist U meatball munching wop:)
I’m fading you all the way Fly.
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Howz’ bout Dem RANGERS !!!
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Ron Washington is takin’ … “Tony” … to school !!!
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Fuckin’ Funny !!!
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“That’s The Way Baseball Do !!!”
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Thank you for the video. The effect much like David’s harp on Saul’s mind.
When CAT killed the numbers and raised guidance, I had to wonder. Then, it hit me.
Oil Sand and Oil Shale, the Dakotas, Canada, and those big-a*s monster machines needed to do the job.
Also, South America another huge market for CAT.
What does one CAT 797F mining dump truck cost?
http://www.cat.com/cda/layout?m=413188&x=7
A 994F Front Loader?
http://www.cat.com/cda/layout?m=308907&x=7
Freakin’ billions of dollars with lasers mounted on their blades!
Oil Shale Oil Sands, lets move up to the Dakotas and build some housing!
Earnings Update: Bloomberg Oct 24, 2011 9:53 PM PT
UBS Reports 39% Q3 Drop After Trading Loss.
Yes Dakota is one housing bright spot
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NDBP1FH
last several months,honey and i have been looking to relocate to the williston nd area. jobs galore.just dont like the housing stock.
Go Rangers!
I was at game 5 tonight bitches
Nice.
Do you know what was my acid test today, I wanted to see if ONE person on CNBC or Bloomberg would point out the fact that the HSBC China PMI data was only its flash data, and that the real one, along with the china govt one comes out on Nov 1. Nope, not one, they all treated it like it was final data. PLUS, I DIDN’T hear one talk about how bad the EU Flash PMI data was. Today, was a massive short squeeze in WTC Oil over stupid Satalite Photos and hope…but bottomline..I also sit and wait and wait for all of this to pop like it should. Copper is a dead cat bounce caused by speculators calling a bottom, but housing in china soft, auto sales getting soft…no need for copper.
TN
A question for you. Why is there such disparity between adjoining month values in the copper futures chain?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=HGV11.CMX
WOW! Crack spreads down another 11% this morning. WNR and CVI may be a buy if we see a substantial pullback.
Fly what do you make of the rapid decline in crack spreads? How narrow do you think they can get and what does it mean for the refineries?
Now down over 13%!
WTI up over 9% in 2 days, there will have to be a pullback soon and crack should widen, no?
Crack spreads down over 16% now! WTF!!!
Hey, am I the only one here today?
your music box of the Canon brings to mind of really great music out there, thx for the reminder
My iPhone 4s arrived the other day and this Siri voice controlled BS is lame. Short AAPL
Anybody know why Futures took a big hit in the last 20 minutes?
I believe that 3M is responsible for much of the Dow’s hit.