ALL EYES ON ITALY

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10 yr yields are now at 6%. Italy’s debt to GDP ratio is at least 125%, making them the third most indebted nation in the world. France has the most exposure to Italian debt, with more than 500 billion euros in worthless meatballs on their cheesy balance sheets (I know, that was good). The German’s are not stupid and know this is a fight for survival, literally.

If Italy goes, which it is as represented by 6% 10 yr yields, Spain is next. Listen to me ever so quietly, Germany is not going to backstop 3 trillion euros in Spanish and Italian debt. It is simply too big to save. There will have to be restructuring and the banks will likely trade to $00.00, all of them.

Naturally, before that happens, do-gooders will continue fighting the good fight, telling you that “everything is okay” and “this is manageable.” But they are speaking with forked tongues and fool no one but the weak minded simpleton.

All that aside, I am continuing to do research on my new food and beverage thesis. I am sick and tired of trying to catch the beta waves of stocks like CLF and DECK. It’s a suckers game. There is a whole segment of the market that is rising in a quiet, yet predictable fashion. I am interested in good free cash flow and decent growth.

The PIGS may fall; but people still need to eat and drink. Cliches are for corn can fucking asshats. However, in this case, I am only interested in protection of principal; therefore, I can say whatever the fuck I want to say, AND MORE.

UPDATE: I am allocating 20% of assets in TLT.

47 Responses to ALL EYES ON ITALY

mikw says:

Mr. Le Fly look at Arco in your food thesis, the Mcdonalds of South america

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The Fly says:

Yes. It will likely get cut from my list. The only reason why it is there is because of South american exposure. However, I hate MCD.

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tm says:

So do you hate MCD as an investment, or just because they poison people? Or do people just poison themselves? You don’t seem like the type to banish a company for social reasons (especially self-inflicted obeisitah (sic))

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T-Bird says:

Is it a coincidence that bears got loose yesterday in Ohio? They are about to run wild and shit all over the place bc Mr. Market just killed himself.

Get ready Bulls, we are coming and we brought a monkey with Hepatitis with us!

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Juiceyfruit says:

who woulda thunk it – le fly is turning into a w buffett type investor :o

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OZ says:

That old fart has an edge the average folk don’t but auto invest religiously every month into simple diversified index funds would have still made you money during the “lost decade” assuming reinvesting dividends and the like.

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Raule says:

Don’t the Italians have massive vaults of cheese to collateralize their debt? I thought I saw a picture of said vaults in the F.T.

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DJMarcus says:

got a question — ive been following the markets for 1.5-2 yrs now so im def a newbie…

copper and bonds are yelling that theres trouble but equity markets not following. whats going on?

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Ol' Jack Burton says:

To “eat and drink” I would add “flush”. Throw up a 2 year chart of AWK. Love this stock, think it’s still one of Cain Thaler’s favorites. Not giving advice, just mentioning as Ol’ Jack’s favorite port in a shitstorm.

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? says:

Ah, food and drink……
SYY is trading near ten year lows in P/B, P/S, and P/E.
3.9% yield
Perfect for old men like me………
I will start to nibble at 26.

Reply

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