News out of Europe is bullish again. The EFSF, as reported for weeks, will be levered up to $2 trilly in order to save the union. As a consequence, the European version of QE will lend to market liquidity. Hence, we are seeing a sharp short covering rally.
Last year QE2 was announced and I doubted the viability of such a plan. It took awhile to catch on, as I muddled through a VXX hedge. But, eventually, I caught on quick with enforcement, killing people from Thanksgiving to Christmas. No one really knows what European QE will do, other than stave off collapse. The reason why people are furiously bidding up stocks is because of last year’s experience. However, we ran with fundamentals too. It wasn’t all QE, frankly.
This year the economy is in disrepair and the EU is already flatlining to recession.
Aside from a one day, free money bonfire celebration, I am emphatic in my belief that this upswing is unsustainable. As a result, I remain in cash.
For the day, I am off by 0.1%, as VXX, EXH, TZA sink me, my vertically erect WNR offsets those losses and keeps me in a position of power.
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Time to go Jake and buy some PM’s?
ask about SKF while you’re at it.
SKF might look pretty great after a rip higher in XLF tomorrow. Don’t count Mr. Gint out; he’s even mentioned the likelihood of this sort of face-ripping volatility. SKF’s done it’s job thus far and is likely to keep doing so, especially if we get to SPX 1250.
The Skiffles are down, but not out. I am mostly out at this point, though I don’t discount a bounce at the $67.50 support line.
Still in my 1/3-1/2 PM positions too.
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Europe’s newest export will be inflation
The US$ is the reserve standard. The euro is not. Central bankers will not buy the euro. other countries may turn down the euro, but they will not turn down say the dollar because of the euro’s weakness.
I am talking about inflation not reserve status. Dollar weaker after the EFSF news. Hence the Ponzi scheme goes on and commodities will go up. Assuming EFSF rumor is true
This was leaked, light buying started about mid-day and then KABOOM!
Shorts feeling the squeeze in banks like the lasso around their necks.
Don’t fight the FED…even if it’s Eurotrash…
Nothing has changed. This is the crap they have pulling for months. France can’t do this without trashing their credit rating. There is nothing simulative in this even if it came to pass. It bears zero, repeat zero, resemblance to any QE done. It is an attempt to leverage existing funds to provide insurance for defaults. It provides no liquidity. If you are swayed by this you may just be a tool.
.3
If this was a real fix they would have done it months or years before. The ECB is not even involved in this anyway. There are plenty of people who believe this can’t even be done legally. Christ – a late .5 up tick caused all this consternation? The have done these leaks a dozen times.
Finally check your news feeds. The story is already being denied. Sorry no EUR QE. They can’t do it.
You will get buttfucked to Bolivia.
No, I don’t think so. LONDON(Dow Jones)–European officials are still debating the size of the bailout fund for the euro zone and reports that an agreement has been reached to leverage it to EUR2 trillion are “totally wrong,” an official familiar with the negotiations said.
European officials are working toward resolving the euro zone crisis and will be meeting over the weekend. A report in the Guardian newspaper suggested the EUR440 billion European Financial Stability Facility could be levered up to increase its firepower and the euro shot higher but EU officials have dismissed the report.
“Leveraging the EFSF is still being debated,” a person with direct knowledge of the discussions said. “We may have a decision on the size by the summit or just a statement that firepower must be increased. But there no talk about an amount around EUR2 trillion. Such reports of an agreement between France and Germany are totally wrong.”
READ the IBC Newsfeed
Clam – You read Cain’s latest post?
THE EFSF WILL HAVE $6 ZILLION DOLLARS
http://ibankcoin.com/mr_cain_thaler/2011/10/18/the-efsf-will-have-6-zillion-dollars/
interesting Gold not rallying on this….
The GLD rising wedge failed…once again…one of the best technicals to trade of late.
I’m showing it basing on the 60 Min / above 164 and it should rocket up
S&P breaks 1220. Fuck the world and all its problems. You can’t keep fighting the tape. Buy the dips and sell into strength.
Brutal tape!
Only if your homo hammer short…
it’s shown you cant go either way, step back from this shit from time to time. the only constant,is bullshit.
Who wants to hold euros? Unlike us, the EURO doesn’t have the ability to export the inflation result of their stimulus. They are not the reserve currency, and the demand is not going to be strong for the Euro. So capital flows into the US. The question is, US stocks or US dollar+US bonds?
If Europe bails out the banks then its Risk on and that means commodities will go up. Ultimatley leading to inflation.
remind me again why I switched my major from Sciences and the possibility of a career in Dents/Meds to Biz? Oh yeah, cause as much as I hate, I cant leave it !
The story should be discounted as soon as Germany wakes up. AAPL is on my radar..The Nymph and her US Dollar NOW in Mortal Kombat with AAPL..do apples have Spines? I guess I will have to go for its Core.
I know its only Ambrose..but this is just a taste that is facing the EU from Germany http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/berlin-warns-on-bailout-plan-20111018-1lymu.html
hate to say it Nymph, me thinks AAPL will gore you.
We got those bitches.
Great name Le und Das.
I’m still uncertain what language you speak?
AAPL is on your radar? You don’t say.
You really think Germany is totally clueless?
CHOMP CHOMP…can say anything, I am eating a AAPL core..my mouth is full.
We have a winner!
Looks like the swan brought you luck today. You may even get your spine back tomorrow if the after-hours downside carries over to the regular hours session lol
nymph-are you filipino?
Two, Nope..
Jim Chanos doesn’t write well enough to post a comment on iBC, let alone be a tabbed blogger here.
Anton, Is Chanos word blind too? I didn’t know that.
Germany want us to have our daily 40.
Fly — seems as if you’re afraid to lose and unwilling to win. The good news is that you have sufficient outperformance and thus do not need to chase and/or be the first mouse. Looking forward to when you buy four letter words again…
Fly, maybe this is the last gasp and no turkey rally this year.
Never underestimate the Turkey Gods. They will peck your eyeballs out in no time.
I can hear Scott Bleir’s bitching from here.
If you’re gonna insult me the least you could do is get my name right
That’s so wrong. And funny.
Sorry Scott.
Check out the two week monster short squeeze in Sears, a 50% friggin surge! Whodathunkit?
Meatballs Maria Bartiromo…
hehe i used to call her pom poms bartiromo,cause she should have jumped up and down with her granny tits asking,”it’s 4 o’clock,do you know where your money is”?.
Yeah bebe, yeah, but now she’s promoted, blessed and golden now MeGuesses.
Point db.
Each of the 4 indexes reached its 10/14 high intra-day today and then pulled back to close below the high.
Simply a re-test of the highs along the lines of Fly having said the market likes to test the mettle of investors?
I put on a small position in TWM yesterday. Will look to jettison by options expiration day if the $RUT MACD starts to strengthen again.
And AAPL is where after hours…..breaking under 404 support.
You tell ’em!!!
Awesome call, Nymph. I’m actually playing retardo bubble-tech AMZN to the downside. Already rode it down once, and (I’ll be honest) she was good to me then. Looking for some repeat business.
395 > 278.
You still lose.
Give it time.
Rob, Thank you…I needed AAPL to fall to finally get to the SPX 1020 level by the end of Nov..it is taking a long time.Sort of the exact same set up as 2007
AAPL ugly $398 and falling a/h!
Tom DeMark says this is the top.
link, please. can’t find it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-18/tom-demark-says-s-p-500-to-rise-above-1-250-this-week-before-dropping-5-6-.html
video from Oct 5th as well on side bar scary watch.
Well if Tom says so…pff
and have you made any markt calls?, or forgot you’ve got more cake than SAC, Soros or any of the other hedgies who use his services.
you’re such a tool.
Trading Nymph finally gets a bite out of the AAPL … now don’t be greedy, you may not fare as well with a CQB.
Tea..I have to ride this down to Copper below 2.00. It will take some time.
speed it up with a blender:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHWvgWA930I&feature=player_embedded
iPhone to iDeath to iScrap …
Moodys downgrades Spain from AA2 to A1.
my portfolio got downgraded by the market today …
I have turned a bit more cautious after today’s absurd action. Back to cash and MRE’s.
All very boring, but in the meantime the financials are leading the market higher. This is good.
how can it be good to me when my FAZ went from 80 to 48, a 40% haircut ???
dude, are you in ppt? if not i suggest you pay for a sub NOW !! shouldnt have held it that long
what the heck is ppt ???
its the paid sub here at iBank coin. the cost of the sub would have saved you on your FAZ trade.
besides, you only hold those levered ETFs into a trend, long term the decay will kill you.
it’s a special ride in an alien vessel,that few have ever rode in.so far you’re here at the docking station,where it comes in to port to load up on 2 1/2 inch ribeye steaks and hummos,yea i know dont ask why,they like the gooey stuff. but if you see that alien dude at the top of the page,he’s scalpin tickets for the next ride.oh,dont forget to bring some condoms,there’s alot of coke and hookers on board just for the taking.
We shall see Tom, lol.
Tom DeMark, whose prediction last month that the S&P 500’s decline would stop at 1,076 proved prescient when the index bottomed at 1,074.77, said the rally that lifted the benchmark as much as 14 percent since then will fizzle. The S&P 500 will rise as high as 1,254 before falling at least 5.6 percent, he wrote in an e-mail today.
This oughtta be good for the market’s health:
Another brilliant idea, courtesy of the Tax Eaters.
_________________
Enlightenment courtesy of Dr. Joseph Goebbels I presume ….
Just another nail in the coffin for N0bama.
Indicator with great track record turns Bullish!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/indicator-with-great-record-turns-bullish-2011-10-18?dist=afterbell
And it DOESN’T anticipate the weakness now either!! “Did this indicator anticipate the market’s weakness in August and September of this year? Unfortunately not, which is another way of saying that the message of the indicator is that recent weakness was not the beginning of a major bear market. The highest it ever got to was 3.2%, according to Ned Davis Research, a level that the firm’s back testing has indicated to be a neutral reading.”
No deal to boost Europe bailout fund
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-deal-to-boost-europe-bailout-fund-report-2011-10-18?dist=afterbell
13 34 ema crossed up today. Backfill and run?
Anything less than $2 Tril now will be a disappointment.
What about 1.99 Trillion?
I’m beginning to believe Vegas Trader ll works for Nouriel Roubini. Most bearish SOB I’ve ever encountered..
Lol
All BS aside, I’m balls deep with TZA at $47 and $41. Pretty pissed to say the least.. I’m joining the PPT and intend on being even more patient/disciplined in the future..
You need to join slave camp, not PPT. Why the fuck do you play TZA and TNA?
FU retard
If they vow 2trillion they will need 20, where the fuck are they gonna get it?.. borrow from us? What then? They gotta print or buy bonds..This is a weakening of the EUR. The dollar will then go up. This is the path of least pain.
What happens to the market when the dollar goes up? It tanks for a while but it will bounce and the market will start to go up with the dollar… although it could put us back in the deflation vortex of death and bankrupt the Government.. If the FED keeps a lid on interest rates we could make it out.
Our exports would go to shit and food riots would brake out all over the world.. but hey fuck it the banks need some help.. god forbid the ultra rich lose everything..
You fucking retard, when will you get it? USD goes up when risk is off. USD goes down and other currencies like Euro go up when risk is on.
It is not because of borrowing that USD or Euro will go down or up. Even if you pour 100 Euro trillions, USD will still go down then.
Mr Tard
there is a EUR/USD if one goes up the other will go down.. will it go up if one is debasing the EUR or taking on more debt with a dead economy.. which one seems the more stable at this point? NOW when will you get it? the dollar drops and makes the market run.. look at any dollar index chart. youll figure it out some day… the currency markets have been driving the stocks not the other way around jackass…
It appears that you are having a grand old time insulting everyone on the internets while you take a few sips from your faggotty glass of chardonnay.
Above comments directed at the Retard.
It usually works like that, but it’s not a math law. There have been a few times i remember (probably more times that i don’t) where the market runs with the dollar for a while or drops along with the dollar.
Any genuine advice? Cut bait on the next pull decent pull back, etc..
My take is the market reaches former support at es 1260.
Just in time for super committee.
Can you see ’em. The new aristocracy of the world laughing at subprime lawyers and broker prognosticators.
Caviar and nose-sniffing to the sunrise they are as the working world crunches ratios in decimals, converting into percentage year-end returns; gone blind in Excel spread books.
NO DEAL: Greece, say hi in Arabic. HuHaha. (jk, no middle east hate, but U get the drift).
And Oh Yeah, napalm and plutonium by mid-November if Obama takes “a break” from his…reach out and fuck you tour across America and does a Boehner stare down summer style.
God bless the Speaker, can you imagine the courage it takes to look a commie bastard, a criminal of the highest order, in the face and appease their reckless existence.
Power to the Boehner!
Warning
alf44 has been released from the Ibc prison for time served and good behaviour.
TY, Sir !
.
However … the “moderation” BS needs to …
…GO AWAY !!!
TIA
.
… ahhh … kewl !!!
nevermind …
.
Rejoicing in Alf’s freedom. I need some triple-spaced negativity to hydrate my wilting hedges.
Agreed Sir Fly
Ponzi finance. Guardian is already downplaying the numbers that were “rumored” today.
Bailout is expected to b 1 trill vs the 2 trill the market wants.
Cheers
Edge
Let me be the first to say that that was an entertaining GOP Presidential Debate … A real clown fest with boxing gloves.
And the winner is ……
0Bama …. Hahaha!!!
after watching the GOP debate I wonder – who does more Oxycontin – Rush LImbaugh or Michelle Bachman? She is going to build a fence across the entire border? HAHAH – she is soooo high!! That Ergotamine (a starting material for LSD synthesis( and opiates are rotting her brain… As for Cain (Koch brothers puppet), the Reagan repubs love him, as they just love doing business with Iran.
People… please note.. something may be moving.
Scott Sumner a fine, Chicago school educated economist has been pushing for the Fed to Target Nominal GDP.
It appears to taking on some speed with the policy makers , especially central banks. the Economist, Greg Mankiw and Goldman Sachs have endorsed the theory among others.
It’s worth taking a look and reading through his blog.
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=11460
in-fly-ation